RJ Scaringe TechCrunch Disrupt Interview

[SANZC02]

It was nice to hear that they are still planning on releasing a larger pack for the R1S too, even though I don't plan on buying it.

There was a lot of talk about battery development. I wonder if they are waiting on (or developing) a formula with a denser kWh that will fit in that same space.

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[Dark-Fx]

There was a lot of talk about battery development. I wonder if they are waiting on (or developing) a formula with a denser kWh that will fit in that same space.

I think the Rivian uses 4800mAh cells, and 5000 mAh ones in the same form factor exist. I'm not aware of larger ones than that, but I'm also the general public, so not in a position to know about what might be pre-production.

 

[FutureTruck]

If only RJ had an Erlich Bachman to take on stage with him...

 

[zipzag]

There was a lot of talk about battery development. I wonder if they are waiting on (or developing) a formula with a denser kWh that will fit in that same space.

A 30% improvement in energy density would be a huge increase. Way beyond the incremental gains we have been seeing in the last few years

 

[SANZC02]

A 30% improvement in energy density would be a huge increase. Way beyond the incremental gains we have been seeing in the last few years

Would not be a 30% increase for the R1S. When they walked back the Max pack for the R1S they said they would have a larger pack but never committed to the actual size only that it would be less than the R1T.

If you look at the 2170 it has 4800 mAh verses the 4680 that has 9000 mAh. If you can get 70% of the 4680 cells in the same space you go from 135 kWh to 177 kWh so range changes from 316 to 414 on the R1S. (Please check my math, I already had to edit this….)

I’m just spitballing here, I have no clue what new formats are out there or currently in the pipeline and do not even have a clue what direction they are moving but there has been a lot of development since the 2170 was created.

 

[NY_Rob]

RJ should have been wearing a mask the way he was coughing... I felt bad for the lady interviewing him. I cringed every time he coughed right in her direction.

 

[zefram47]

If you look at the 2170 it has 4800 mAh verses the 4680 that has 9000 mAh. If you can get 70% of the 4680 cells in the same space you go from 135 kWh to 177 kWh so range changes from 316 to 414 on the R1S. (Please check my math, I already had to edit this….)

Unless I'm thinking about this wrong, a 4680 cell (46mm x 80mm) has a cylindrical volume nearly 5.5x that of a 2170 cell (21mm x 70mm). So there's no way you'd fit anywhere near 70% of the 2170 Rivian cell count in the same space. But even that seems odd because that leads to the 4680 having nearly 1/3 the volumetric power density of the 2170. So either my math/thinking is way off. Looking at mAh capacity, 9000 mAh / 355g = 25.25 mAh/g (4680) vs 4800 mAh / 68g = 70.58 mAh/g. So again, other than lower cell count, what the hell is the advantage of the 4680? It doesn't seem to win on either volumetric or mass power density.

 

[MountainBikeDude]

Would not be a 30% increase for the R1S. When they walked back the Max pack for the R1S they said they would have a larger pack but never committed to the actual size only that it would be less than the R1T.

If you look at the 2170 it has 4800 mAh verses the 4680 that has 9000 mAh. If you can get 70% of the 4680 cells in the same space you go from 135 kWh to 177 kWh so range changes from 316 to 414 on the R1S. (Please check my math, I already had to edit this….)

I’m just spitballing here, I have no clue what new formats are out there or currently in the pipeline and do not even have a clue what direction they are moving but there has been a lot of development since the 2170 was created.

No math to back this up, but a 21x70 form factor vs 46x80... You would actually be able to fit 3 21x70's into the same space as a 4680 and still have room to spare. so if you have 3 2170's @ 4800mAh each for a total of 14,400mAh in the same space as a 9000mAh 4680.

I understand the manufacturing, and materials cost goes down with the 4680, but comparing one 4680 to three 2170's technically the 2170's would win out?


My tiny brain is burning up trying to understand.

 

[thrill]

This is Munro's math.

 

[zipzag]

I doubt Rivian can buy 4680 next year. But with such big packs the C rate needed per cell is still not much with the large size.

 

[moosehead]

RJ continues to impress with one eye on the R1 platform execution in the midst of headwinds, one eye on tomorrow with roughly half of 15k employees thinking forward. Even if one thinks this next phase of the company is best suited to a new CEO, RJ seems fully engaged with both hands on deck.

He clearly states Rivian is a multi-pronged transportation company. Though not fully confirmed, Ebikes are a go including for urban deliveries.

10-year overnight success.

 

[Ash]

I know the focus of this interview is on Rivian, but I found it odd they didn't mention Tesla FSD in their conversation, or even hint at it without saying "Tesla," as RJ was talking about how hardware intensive level 4 autonomy is. Am I the only one who sees the writing on the wall? I know I could be wrong, but it sure seems like the future of autonomy is mostly likely camera based tech licensed by Tesla to other automakers. FSD is improving at a ridiculous rate. Tesla's innovation pace in software and manufacturing is nigh uncatchable. I know I might get crucified here for this perspective, but I'm looking forward to engaging in this conversation with anyone here who keeps up on this stuff.

 

[SANZC02]

I know the focus of this interview is on Rivian, but I found it odd they didn't mention Tesla FSD in their conversation, or even hint at it without saying "Tesla," as RJ was talking about how hardware intensive level 4 autonomy is. Am I the only one who sees the writing on the wall? I know I could be wrong, but it sure seems like the future of autonomy is mostly likely camera based tech licensed by Tesla to other automakers. FSD is improving at a ridiculous rate. Tesla's innovation pace in software and manufacturing is nigh uncatchable. I know I might get crucified here for this perspective, but I'm looking forward to engaging in this conversation with anyone here who keeps up on this stuff.

I just do not think anyone is that close to widespread fully autonomous driving. Just take a look at all of the news articles out there about crashes. Or for the couple of venders actually operating driverless cars (Tesla is not even in this phase yet) having cars get confused causing traffic jams.

FSD to me is like solid state batteries, the last 10% is going to take twice as long as the first 90%. Current leaders in this space are Cruise by GM, Waymo by Alphabet, Nuro (delivery), and ZooX owned by Amazon.

edit for typo

 

[R1Sky Business]

Well, that should eliminate the max pack doubt. I wish he was interviewed more in depth about batteries. Not specifically Rivian's plans, but how they view the industry.

Funny this interview is released a few days after the October semi-lockdown on configurations.

When? Is the Max Pack's main issue

 

[zipzag]

When? Is the Max Pack's main issue

I agree. We should know in the next few weeks. If the people who previously had a 1H 2023 date are delayed then 2024 is the likely date.

The reason to be hopeful is that Rivian would really like to start producing the max pack. The reason to be pessimistic is that Rivian has so far failed at delivering all major complex accessories.

Anyways, first world problems.

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