Not looking too good for continued operations beyond 2025

[NineElectrics]

They plan to be profitable in 2024. Even if they did go bankrupt, which is unlikely, they are building the vehicles of the future while the old school ICE players fall behind.

Which automakers are falling behind? I see them all introducing EVs, prompted by the regulatory environment. I expect Ford to sell more EVs than Rivian this year.

EVs just aren’t hard to make. Maybe profitably.

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[Franksmartin]

Which automakers are falling behind? I see them all introducing EVs, prompted by the regulatory environment. I expect Ford to sell more EVs than Rivian this year.

EVs just aren’t hard to make. Maybe profitably.

Toyota for example, their EV goals are modest at best and behind Rivian.

https://techwireasia.com/2023/02/how-toyota-is-revamping-its-strategy-on-evs-under-its-new-ceo/

 

[Oneup008]

Nice FT article - https://www.ft.com/content/ff4002a9-57a3-448c-af49-f665f38340ae

- Rivian's CFO expects the company to earn a gross profit in 2023...enough cash to maintain operations through the end of 2025
- Rivian has become a key player in the economy of Normal, Illinois
- Market capitalization has dropped from $162bn to $12.5bn, yikes!
- Targets to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023
- plenty of shortfalls in Rivian's ability to meet expectations while the market sees increasing competition

I was thinking about why I don't have my pre-ordered Rivian and it's because so many changes were made that the product is no longer what I wanted when i engaged the pre-order (may 2019). I can't be alone in how I feel.

What's the plan here? Ive been a fan for so long but this is just isn't feeling recession proof (as a product or as an investment). It's hard to say when enough is enough; macro or micro indicators have all been pointing in the direction of parting ways.

Are others just riding this out (to what ever exit becomes available)?

OP has a legitimate question for those on the fence. I'm in the same straddle position. The options and vehicle has changed so much. I'm sure the fanbois will be irritated because they won't accept anything negative but in the end to each his own on what to do with their hard earned cash. I even have a service center just a few miles up the street. But I'm not going to put up with some of the issues I've seen some owners post. And it sounds like a crap shoot if you have a windy noise window, bad alignment, steering and suspension issues. The plus side is that my early slot will mean someone moves up the chain if I pull out so don't hate on me as well. I prefer to hear the good and bad, CNN and FOX and make my own decision. My rant is that a lot of forums turn into cheer leading with "Don't you dare throw shade on my car/company". I say let the chips fall where they may, believe your eyes not the dogma of the cult. Best of luck to the company. Ignore if you like and say good riddance. I'll probably be gone soon anyways. I don't know. Sorry to be dark.

 

[Sully151]

I think forums are equally filled with “Fanbois” and people who come to complain about their issues with the vehicle. The. There are the vast majority of owners who have no problems and better things to do.

 

[mkg3]

Can’t disagree. But again I compare to Tesla and Elon who had a dream and worked to make it happen. Look at what Rivian does have in place after a few years in the design phase

actually I personally wish Tesla would become involved to some degree with Rivian and as many crazy things he does and says he does have the ability to quickly build and place into operation efficient production lines. Could call it the normal man’s pickup along side the cybertruck. LOL

One shouldn't confuse Tesla and Elon with Rivian and RJ. By the time Tesla is not Elon's first gig. He had found Zip2 and X.com that he merged PayPal first. Then he went on to start SpaceX. By the time He took over Tesla, he was already seasoned.

Much hype of Rivian, when it was still private, was that its the next Tesla. I suppose that's some of the reasons why the comparison still exist today. Rivian will, just as Tesla did during the early days of Model 3, fight for its survival.

The problem with running out of money in 2025 is that even if Rivian is profitable in 2024, it has to generate enough cash to obligate suppliers for R2 production. This assumes Rivian's GA factory comes in on budget and on time. This says nothing about the raw materials and suppliers to ramp up to hopeful 400,000 units in couple of years thereafter.

From product placement stand point, the R2 competitors are plenty. And they will be a late entrant compared to competitors. They no longer will have the first mover advantage like they did with R1T (first EV truck) and R1S (first box 3 row eSUV).

My hope is that RJ steps aside as the Chairman and hires a CEO. Sort of how Eric Schmidt came in and ran Googgle while Sergey and Larry learned the ropes.

 

[Autolycus]

From product placement stand point, the R2 competitors are plenty. And they will be a late entrant compared to competitors. They no longer will have the first mover advantage like they did with R1T (first EV truck) and R1S (first box 3 row eSUV).

I'm curious about this one because it's a market my wife or I will be in in a few years. What are the anticipated competitors? I expect the R2S to still be something like an EV equivalent to a Jeep Wrangler or Bronco (Sport?). The Scout is on VW's roadmap, but what else is there that's a more direct competitor than a Model Y or similar that's really just a slightly-raised sedan with a hatch-back?

I won't be in this market, but I assume the R2T, if there is one, will be like an EV version of the Maverick or Honda Ridgeline? Is there any direct competitor to that on public roadmaps?

 

[Zoidz]

Which automakers are falling behind? I see them all introducing EVs, prompted by the regulatory environment. I expect Ford to sell more EVs than Rivian this year.

EVs just aren’t hard to make. Maybe profitably.

Ford won’t sell more this year if they continue to have problems like this. This should illustrate that if Ford is still having supply constraints, we can expect that Rivian is at risk too.

May 6
“Initially reported by Reuters, Ford is facing a production issue regarding door handles for the F-150 Lightning. According to comments given to Reuters by an inside source, a holdup at a third-party supplier now limits truck production. Luckily for customers, Ford stated the production hiccup was minor and would be made up by the current production increase.

“While a supplier part shortage is affecting some of our North American plants, we expect to make up all of the production that is impacted,” Ford said in a comment to Reuters. Ford plans to reopen F-150 Lightning orders next week, though it remains unclear what the wait time will be for ordered units.”

 

[Ventura]

Nice FT article - https://www.ft.com/content/ff4002a9-57a3-448c-af49-f665f38340ae

- Rivian's CFO expects the company to earn a gross profit in 2023...enough cash to maintain operations through the end of 2025
- Rivian has become a key player in the economy of Normal, Illinois
- Market capitalization has dropped from $162bn to $12.5bn, yikes!
- Targets to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023
- plenty of shortfalls in Rivian's ability to meet expectations while the market sees increasing competition

I was thinking about why I don't have my pre-ordered Rivian and it's because so many changes were made that the product is no longer what I wanted when i engaged the pre-order (may 2019). I can't be alone in how I feel.

What's the plan here? Ive been a fan for so long but this is just isn't feeling recession proof (as a product or as an investment). It's hard to say when enough is enough; macro or micro indicators have all been pointing in the direction of parting ways.

Are others just riding this out (to what ever exit becomes available)?

My Rivian (R1T) is amazing. Scratch that, it is f#$@ing amazing. I think the plan is to keep producing amazing vehicles that people love.
I'm not saying that Rivians are perfect, but they may seem so when compared to other trucks based on my use/desires.

 

[mkg3]

I'm curious about this one because it's a market my wife or I will be in in a few years. What are the anticipated competitors? I expect the R2S to still be something like an EV equivalent to a Jeep Wrangler or Bronco (Sport?). The Scout is on VW's roadmap, but what else is there that's a more direct competitor than a Model Y or similar that's really just a slightly-raised sedan with a hatch-back?

I won't be in this market, but I assume the R2T, if there is one, will be like an EV version of the Maverick or Honda Ridgeline? Is there any direct competitor to that on public roadmaps?

https://topelectricsuv.com/featured/upcoming-electric-cars-2022-2023/

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/advice/future-electric-cars?slide=60

There are others in addition to those. Not a complete list as mfg are adding new models.

 

[SANZC02]

It's not the product. It's the management team and the leadership. So far they have not demonstrated that they can get on top of the production hell.

RJ maybe a bright engineer but as a 40 yrs old first time CEO, its a tall mountain to climb as the first stint executive.

You may want to do a bit more research here. Tesla had no competition when they started and no supply chain issues, just a funding issue.

Rivian had to deal with a global pandemic and could not have launched at a worst time from a supply chain perspective, they now are dealing with crazy inflation and huge interest rate hikes. Despite these headwinds, they built more vehicles in the first full year than Tesla did even with Tesla having 3 more months of practice in their partial year. If Rivian is able to get to 50k this year they will have done it in their second full year, Tesla did not get to 50k until their third year.

If you are comparing as startups Rivian certainly is ahead of where Tesla was at this faze of production even with the challenges listed above.

Still a lot of headwind for Rivian, the R2 is critical for them. I think they are good into 2027 at this point, that gives them a lifeline to get the R2s into production in 2026, if that date slips by much it very well could be a different ball game.

 

[Guy]

You may want to do a bit more research here. Tesla had no competition when they started and no supply chain issues, just a funding issue.

Rivian had to deal with a global pandemic and could not have launched at a worst time from a supply chain perspective, they now are dealing with crazy inflation and huge interest rate hikes. Despite these headwinds, they built more vehicles in the first full year than Tesla did even with Tesla having 3 more months of practice in their partial year. If Rivian is able to get to 50k this year they will have done it in their second full year, Tesla did not get to 50k until their third year.

If you are comparing as startups Rivian certainly is ahead of where Tesla was at this faze of production even with the challenges listed above.

Still a lot of headwind for Rivian, the R2 is critical for them. I think they are good into 2027 at this point, that gives them a lifeline to get the R2s into production in 2026, if that date slips by much it very well could be a different ball game.

Agreed but the date has already slipped from 2025 to 2026 which means over four years for building the factory which is a long time.

 

[SDMiner]

If Rivian makes it through 2025 it will be doing great, if they don't get production up they will have big problems before that. If they can get production up, they should be fine. Rivian is unique and actually doesn't have a lot of competition. Ford Lightning seems to have big problems. Tesla Truck is always in the future, they're weird and nobody is quite sure what their capabilities will be, if they ever come out. Rivian seems in way better shape than Lucid. I had an order on a Air Pure and after a year they wanted me to configure and place my order--even though the dealer still did not have one for me to see or drive. I think their orders are evaporating rapidly, I think Rivian's are still quite strong. I need an EV that I can drive on rugged, high clearance roads, what is my alternative to Rivian? Perhaps a Ford Lightning, IF I could get one, but I can't and I would still need to lift it. Maybe a Hummer, but their TOTAL production is about half of Rivian's QUARTERLY production.

The capitalization is based on how much capital Rivian has, if they can show they can supply the demand and make a profit their capitalization will go any many-fold.

 

[SANZC02]

Agreed but the date has already slipped from 2025 to 2026 which means over four years for building the factory which is a long time.

Yes, I think a lot of that is the NIMBY pressure but there has been several recent court rulings going in Rivian’s favor. Fingers crossed that pressure eases soon.

If they deliver 50k at an average of $80k that brings in $4 billion, if they can do 75k next year with probably a $90k+ average that is another $6.75 billion. That is where they think the will be seeing better cash flow.

With the investment Amazon has in Rivian I’m sure they will rework that EDV contract from exclusive to moving up the first right of refusal dates. I think there will be a good market not only for last mile deliveries but trades and coach builders on that platform.

I still feel pretty positive towards them, in the meantime I’ll just keep enjoying driving the R1S and see what happens.

 

[SDH]

Coming back to the OP's dilemma, which if I read it correctly, is basically that the R1 is not quite the car it was first described as (price up, slowly removing features, early model production issues etc. etc.) and more concerning, that Rivian will soon runout of $ and thus disappear off the face of the earth, leaving folks holding a very expensive baby.

If that's correct (it's a legitimate fear) then sure, hold off buying an R1 (or R2) until you have more certainty. However, I am not that alarmed by all these press stories and headlines - and there will be more to come.

Rivian is NOT just going to spend it's last cent then turn out the lights and disappear. It might be painful for shareholders, but look at Aston Martin, GM and other companies who've all gone bankrupt. Someone will buy them up or bail them out.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Is this shill day over on the Rivian forums? I see all the short sellers and hedge fund douche bros are trolling the forum today trying to lower the stock price. Go away guy. Nothing in this article is news.

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