This guy gets it - "Cybertruck looks insane, but holding out for Rivian R2"

[RivianPioneer]

I think non-current Tesla customers feel similarly. The most vocal people in support of CT are Teslastans

I don’t know about that. I love my R1S but I can see that there will be a significant market interest in the CT. Tesla knows how to integrate software and hardware in a way that Rivian has years work on. For me, the R1S’s form factor is nicer, it’s build quality is solid (i.e. they don’t cut corners or cheap out on interior items like Tesla does), but I definitely see the appeal for an unconventional pickup that is much more sophisticated in the technology employed, has better software integration, has many repair shop options in most states, and (at least for now) has a much more reliable supercharging network for travel. I expect the CT will sell well, and that just like all of the other Tesla models once the kinks are worked out and Tesla exhausts its waiting list, the prices will come down significantly for the CT.

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[RivRyan]

There wasn't, until I read your post. That's what I'm telling you, the sort of attitude you displayed there is such a major turn off to people like myself that you will push people away from what you want them to do. That environmental smugness is something most people try to distance themselves from, and I do not like people assuming I am someone like that because I own an EV. So that attitude is a BARRIER to adoption for most mainstream people judging by all the people who assume "I am one of those" and the social relief I see them express when they find out I'm not.


I am quick to identify myself as "not one of those" when people ask and that's almost the first thing people ask when they find out I have an EV. People who are aware of that attitude worry about being associated with it. To be clear, there's nothing wrong with caring about the environment. Where the problem comes into play is thinking that you're somehow better than everyone esle becasue of it or that environmentalism is your entire personality. Most people simply aren't that involved and the people who are usually are too preachy about it.

Did someone mention sounding preachy?

LOL again.

 

[DuoRivians]

I don’t know about that. I love my R1S but I can see that there will be a significant market interest in the CT. Tesla knows how to integrate software and hardware in a way that Rivian has years work on. For me, the R1S’s form factor is nicer, it’s build quality is solid (i.e. they don’t cut corners or cheap out on interior items like Tesla does), but I definitely see the appeal for an unconventional pickup that is much more sophisticated in the technology employed, has better software integration, has many repair shop options in most states, and (at least for now) has a much more reliable supercharging network for travel. I expect the CT will sell well, and that just like all of the other Tesla models once the kinks are worked out and Tesla exhausts its waiting list, the prices will come down significantly for the CT.

Better software integration is dubious. I’ve owned many Teslas. They have better adas than Rivian, which is the only thing I’d agree with now. Superchargers are accessible to all soon. And I don’t know any body shop that knows how to work with stainless steel.

Still think the CT market is primarily for tech bros and/or a subset of existing Tesla owners. Don’t think non-Tesla owners or work truck owners will really gravitate to it.

 

[RivianPioneer]

Better software integration is dubious. I’ve owned many Teslas. They have better adas than Rivian, which is the only thing I’d agree with now. Superchargers are accessible to all soon. And I don’t know any body shop that knows how to work with stainless steel.

Still think the CT market is primarily for tech bros and/or a subset of existing Tesla owners. Don’t think non-Tesla owners or work truck owners will really gravitate to it.

I guess we will agree to disagree. I owned several Teslas too, and the software integration makes using and driving the cars much easier. Rivian has a long way to go on the software front,, even to get some basic things right in terms of software integration. Tesla has made markets - when people were writing it off it forged ahead and now has sold millions of model 3 and Y cars. I have learned not to underestimate just how far their products can penetrate, or create, markets. It’s hard to predict who will find the CT appealing since there are only 10 of them on the road. There probably won’t be any real sales going on until 2024.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Did someone mention sounding preachy?

LOL again.

If you don't want me to have to repeat myself understand why you're wrong the first time. Telling you how odious I find your smugness isn't the same as being smug myself. I'm not surprised you don't get the distinction though, because if you did you wouldn't BE so smug in the first place.

 

[GGinSD]

I think non-current Tesla customers feel similarly. The most vocal people in support of CT are Teslastans

Tesla owner here and am totally turned off by the CT. It looks to me like what a 70"s sci fi movie would depict as a truck in the future.

 

[R1TS]

Better software integration is dubious. I’ve owned many Teslas. They have better adas than Rivian, which is the only thing I’d agree with now. Superchargers are accessible to all soon. And I don’t know any body shop that knows how to work with stainless steel.

Still think the CT market is primarily for tech bros and/or a subset of existing Tesla owners. Don’t think non-Tesla owners or work truck owners will really gravitate to it.

People keep underestimating the pool of Tesla loyalists. That alone will help them sell more than R1T ever will.

Then you have those who aren’t loyalists that are just price sensitive. Bigger bed, more battery use features (11 kw V2X!!), equally as good off-road chops for the majority of off-road trips for the general population, and lower price than the R1T (also with bigger tax credit than Rivians).

I don't see how people think the CT is going to not do better than the R1T.

 

[Dark-Fx]

People keep underestimating the pool of Tesla loyalists. That alone will help them sell more than R1T ever will.

Tesla's average transaction mix is pretty heavily into the cheaper models. Doesn't matter how much you love Tesla if you can't afford a particular vehicle. Plenty of R1T buyers said they got priced out after the initial increase before Rivian walked back that increase for reservation holders.

I suspect there are a lot of folks that are underestimating how much of the blind Tesla loyalty is because of the charging network, that is going to be available to essentially everyone next year.

As for me, I didn't initially care for the Rivian's looks, but after realizing Tesla wasn't joking about the cybertruck, the Rivian became a lot more palatable, and that's when I put my reservation in for the R1T. I would likely be sitting on a Tesla forum right now if Tesla's pickup wasn't such an abomination.

 

[R1TS]

Tesla's average transaction mix is pretty heavily into the cheaper models. Doesn't matter how much you love Tesla if you can't afford a particular vehicle. Plenty of R1T buyers said they got priced out after the initial increase before Rivian walked back that increase for reservation holders.

I suspect there are a lot of folks that are underestimating how much of the blind Tesla loyalty is because of the charging network, that is going to be available to essentially everyone next year.

As for me, I didn't initially care for the Rivian's looks, but after realizing Tesla wasn't joking about the cybertruck, the Rivian became a lot more palatable, and that's when I put my reservation in for the R1T. I would likely be sitting on a Tesla forum right now if Tesla's pickup wasn't such an abomination.

I see that most of the butthurt Tesla folks that all of a sudden are saying the CT is a flop are those that thought they could buy one for $40K, as per the original unveil, which was always just a fantasy.

 

[DuoRivians]

People keep underestimating the pool of Tesla loyalists. That alone will help them sell more than R1T ever will.

Then you have those who aren’t loyalists that are just price sensitive. Bigger bed, more battery use features (11 kw V2X!!), equally as good off-road chops for the majority of off-road trips for the general population, and lower price than the R1T (also with bigger tax credit than Rivians).

I don't see how people think the CT is going to not do better than the R1T.

Non-Tesla loyalists are most likely to buy an ICE truck. You can buy a great ICE truck for $40-50k. And pay $2.50/gal for gas again.

What matters is expectations versus reality. Expectations for the cybertruck, before Nov 30th, was that this thing was going to be the end-all-be-all for trucks (both ICE + EV). Turns out actuals will likely be about the sales of MS/MX numbers, given the price point.

Expectations for R1T sales were never for more than 30K per year. Rivian’s max production rate is that number for 2024 and 2025

 

[RivianPioneer]

Tesla owner here and am totally turned off by the CT. It looks to me like what a 70"s sci fi movie would depict as a truck in the future.

Can’t argue with you about how it looks! It’s crazy. But like a few people in this discussion chain have said, you can’t underestimate tesla fans!

 

[Dark-Fx]

I see that most of the butthurt Tesla folks that all of a sudden are saying the CT is a flop are those that thought they could buy one for $40K, as per the original unveil, which was always just a fantasy.

Only two available trims, and they both went up by thirty thousand dollars. And the top level trim falls incredibly short of their original range and capability claims. Tesla went from disruptive numbers to competitive, and it's absolutely going to drive people in line for the upper trims to look at the competition again.

 

[EVsinROC]

Couldn’t be further from the truth. I was a hard core Rivian evangelist from the day they announced a quad motor 400+ range truck. Went to all the events, met RJ, etc… With each passing year and reduced features and range and non-existent Driver+, they completely lost me and I’d even say pushed me (and many others I know) to Tesla. The CT absolutely delivers on the original R1T promise and then some.

Agreed. Everyone overlooking ONLY car w/Drive by wire, full stops. Full 48V architecture w/800 amos & 350KwH charging, torsional rigidity of supercar, and best FSD by far

 

[RivianPioneer]

Only two available trims, and they both went up by thirty thousand dollars. And the top level trim falls incredibly short of their original range and capability claims. Tesla went from disruptive numbers to competitive, and it's absolutely going to drive people in line for the upper trims to look at the competition again.

I think it’s unseemly that the estimated pricing back when the CT was introduced are more than double, but not surprising. As I’ve said before Tesla seems to have no problem selling whatever it can produce, so I’m sure they will sell many CTs even at double the promised price. They’ll milk the most interested Tesla fans for all they can. Then let’s see what the real price will be. Much like the S and X models, I expect they will drop prices by 30% or more once they exhaust their pre-order list. Given that they won’t be able to mass produce these for another year or so, for 2024 at least the CT will be overpriced and not affordable for most.

 

[DuoRivians]

I think it’s unseemly that the estimated pricing back when the CT was introduced are more than double, but not surprising. As I’ve said before Tesla seems to have no problem selling whatever it can produce, so I’m sure they will sell many CTs even at double the promised price. They’ll milk the most interested Tesla fans for all they can. Then let’s see what the real price will be. Much like the S and X models, I expect they will drop prices by 30% or more once they exhaust their pre-order list. Given that they won’t be able to mass produce these for another year or so, for 2024 at least the CT will be overpriced and not affordable for most.

The 4680 batteries are a big bottleneck. Tesla is not making nearly the progress they expected with them, both in kWh density or volume production.

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