They said by the end of 2023 for 55K, up from by the end of 2022 for 48K. Most likely explanation is they can't do 55K by the end of 2022 and hence bumped it into the next CY
If production does drastically ramp up and we see similar type increases over the next several months to a year, why would it take until end of 2023 to produce all the preorders? That's an estimate that doesn't make sense to me.
Darren Palmer, he is General Manager of Ford's EV division and he said in an interview last month that Ford is not releasing targets for 2022.
Either they want to overestimate, or there are some issues with production and/or the supply chain that aren't going to be solved anytime soon.
If you're LE, you can reasonably assume you're still on schedule for Spring 2022 at this point. If not LE, I'd still expect delivery in 2022 if you reserved in 2019. I think only recent reservations should expect 2023.
I think they are allowing for supply constraints to put a cap on that ramp up at a rate of about 20-25k/year. They think they can ramp up to that, but will stall out until things out of their control change.
Got it. I was just reading an article recently which included quotes from him and they stated that number, as well as 2023 and 2024 with recent revisions. So, I take it as off the record. I doubt the reported just made it up. I think it even commented on the fact that it seemed like a low rate given all the preorders they have.
They likely only use years to designate. If they can't fill all preorders in 2022, then it becomes 2023. They aren't going to say Feb 2023 (as an example) to build the 7K over the 2022 estimate.
Did you really think it would be easy before? This is pretty obvious to anyone who's watched Tesla's story unfold. I had no expectations Rivian would be able to scale quickly because that's an unreasonable expectation due to a number of obvious reasons.
To date, pretty much every estimate they have given has been off, in the wrong direction so maybe this time they are finally under promising and going to over deliver. ?
This is extremely on point. It's too early to call it at this phase how the production ramp story is going to go for them.
Classic under promise/over deliver attitude but it still doesn't add up. To be at 150,000 units run rate in Q1 2024 or +- 2,900 per week they would need to be at say 2,500/w in Q4 2023, 2,000/w in Q3 2023, etc. If you do the math going from 113 cars/w in the last 2 months of this quarter (1200-180/9w) and ramp up the production per week reasonably by only 35, 100, 250, 250 cars/w in each quarters in fiscal 2022 and then by another 250, 500, 500, 500 cars/w in each quarters in F2023 so they are at the 2,900 total/w in Q1 2024 (150,000 yearly run rate) and you would have a cumulative production of 113,650 cars by the end of 2023. Either they will not reach the target run rate by then or they don't want to generate to much expectations...
