Rivian now charging $.68 per kwh

[SANZC02]

Here's another apples-to-apples comparison, a sobering thought for sure.
What used to be the poster child for very expensive energy: natural gas.
A THERM of natural gas around here will cost you $1.78. Correspondingly, at $0.68 per kWh, a THERM of electricity will run you $19.93. That's a 1,019% cost differential.
No matter which way you must want to slice it, said before, will continue to say it, any reasonable person would conclude that the price of energy at DCFCs is absurd at best.
The argument some make that EVs are more efficient than ICE cars; therefore okay with these prices, does not wash, either. Exhibit A: an ICE motorcycle (far more "efficient" than a truck) pays the same price for gas as the truck does.

Very glad to have my Tesla Model S to road trip in; it has free/gratis/$0.00 electricity at Tesla superchargers for life, no fine print. Gracias, musk!

Let us do the conversion the other way.

We have a generator that runs 1 hour on a gallon of gas generating 1000 watts. That gives me 4 kWh on a gallon of gas.

Average gas in SoCal is today is 4.76 a gallon, so it would cost me $1.19 to generate 1 kWh.

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[Zorg]

At 16c a KWh (typical home rates), that's equivalent to ~$5 a gallon yet it's irrelevant.

Point is based on current costs, DCFC will remain expensive for the time being, Nevi funds or not. The only ways that costs can go down are:
- higher utilization rates
- lower demand charges (good luck with that)
- adding a convenience store next to DCFC to subsidize charging costs
- lower DCFC install costs (see Tesla)

 

[carsly]

DCFC gets cheaper when there is more competition.

Dieselgate-funded EA aside, since their network - at least in NJ - is useless there is effectively zero competition. NEVI funds produced virtually no chargers, the funds should be clawed back and returned to taxpayers.

BTW, gas got cheaper when two things happened.

1) Increased competition due to attractive margins brought gas stations on every corner
2) government subsidies of gasoline, which continues to this day over 100 years after ICE started scaling

Now the government (state this time) also taxes gasoline, because why should Federal and State governments act in concert and act rationally.

But let's say (1) and (2) above get solved, perhaps by removing all subsidies in the gasoline supply chain, what happens? Eventually home EV charging proliferates as people install solar, wind, geotherm, etc. at their homes. Sure, not everyone can do this, but even apartment building and complexes can mount solar arrays on their roofs and use wind turbines while participating in community solar farm buildouts. It's not the only way, of course, we could restart manufacturing of coal plants but I think that's unlikely. Same goes for nuclear, NIMBY problems abound.

 

[Zorg]

Competition can't solve the cost side of demand charges and per KWh from the utilities.

 

[BigSkies]

While converting energy units has some utility, it's completely irrelevant to this discussion.

Just restricting the conversation to electricity can easily demonstrate that all energy is not created equal. Delivering 1kWh of electricity to a residence with a 200A panel is not equivalent to delivering 1kWh through a DCFC site with somewhere between four and 20 charging stalls capable of 200kW+. The economics and costs aren't even remotely equivalent.

Take a look at some of the proposals for charging related to heavy trucking. While I can't do the math myself, they're looking at millions in capex costs per charging site. Costs for big trucks will be multiples above the DCFC costs we're already seeing.

$/mile is the right way to look at this.

Combining very affordable L2 charging with expensive DCFC still comes up with a reasonable $/mi number as long as you're not overly reliant on DCFC. It's not the economic slam dunk we'd like it to be, but it's not horrible.

DCFC companies still aren't making money, even at today's high prices. Chargepoint lost over $300M last year, and only has $327M left in cash. They'll be bankrupt in about a year unless something major changes. EVGo lost around $45M last year, with about $200M left in cash.

 

[emoore]

DCFC gets cheaper when there is more competition.

Dieselgate-funded EA aside, since their network - at least in NJ - is useless there is effectively zero competition. NEVI funds produced virtually no chargers, the funds should be clawed back and returned to taxpayers.

BTW, gas got cheaper when two things happened.

1) Increased competition due to attractive margins brought gas stations on every corner
2) government subsidies of gasoline, which continues to this day over 100 years after ICE started scaling

Now the government (state this time) also taxes gasoline, because why should Federal and State governments act in concert and act rationally.

But let's say (1) and (2) above get solved, perhaps by removing all subsidies in the gasoline supply chain, what happens? Eventually home EV charging proliferates as people install solar, wind, geotherm, etc. at their homes. Sure, not everyone can do this, but even apartment building and complexes can mount solar arrays on their roofs and use wind turbines while participating in community solar farm buildouts. It's not the only way, of course, we could restart manufacturing of coal plants but I think that's unlikely. Same goes for nuclear, NIMBY problems abound.

Most states just started building NEVI chargers and most of the money hasn’t been spent yet.

 

[bigsky]

Of course, some/many/most EV drivers get some/most/all of their energy via AC home charging and some/most/many can also take advantage of off-peak rates for EV charging and/or have access to solar or other sources of energy generation. I don't recall off-peak gasoline rates or being able to extract, refine and pump my own gasoline at home - but YMMV.

Case in point, I have a Land Rover Defender. My first oil change was $300 or so at the one year mark (not required, but who is foolish enough to wait two years before the first oil change?). Second year service which was another oil change and brake fluid plus other minor things was $800+ after refusing a $200 wiper change. So that's $1,100+ on top of fuel expenses. And I haven't even hit intervals to service the diffs, transmission fluid, spark plugs, thermostat, etc. so that $1,100 for the first two years is as low as it gets for any two year interval of ownership.

So the cost to drive 10,000 miles in a year, every year, is likely lower in a Rivian R1S or R1T vs a comparable vehicle. It may be a tighter gap if you only lease each for 2-3 years as you'll trade out before hitting a lot of the ICE maintenance but my math suggests it's 80-90% less expensive, all post-purchase real-world expenses considered, to drive the EV option vs. an ICE option.

The mantenance costs of an ICE vehicle grows exponentially with the cost thereof.

 

[bigsky]

What role does efficiency play in your calculations? At an average of 30% efficiency, ICE drivers utilize 10kWh per gallon of gasoline.

Sure, they do. What the hell does efficiency have to do with the cost of energy? None.
A motorcycle pays the same price for gasoline as an ICE car, an ICE truck, etc. By your very faulty reasoning, say a Toyota Prius should pay a lot more for gasoline as an ICE SUV does. Or a motorcycle. Guess what, it does not!!

 

[bigsky]

I already did the math for you. In my neck of the woods, demand charges plus KWh cost is around $0.40-0.45 per KWh at current utilization rates. And that's before rent, depreciation and maintenance. I doubt they're making money at $0.63...

Whatever the cost, EV owners still get scammed by the DCFC thieves.

 

[emoore]

Sure, they do. What the hell does efficiency have to do with the cost of energy? None.
A motorcycle pays the same price for gasoline as an ICE car, an ICE truck, etc. By your very faulty reasoning, say a Toyota Prius should pay a lot more for gasoline as an ICE SUV does. Or a motorcycle. Guess what, it does not!!

It’s all about available energy. Not total energy otherwise we should be using E=mc2 to compare energy.

 

[Zorg]

Whatever the cost, EV owners still get scammed by the DCFC thieves.

Dumb dumb...

 

[C12farmer]

Whoever thought it was a good idea to increase the RAN prices across the board at every location should be fired.

In some locations the RAN station truly is unique and an enabler. Those locations could justify charging more.

In MOST locations, there is nothing special about a RAN. There are usually a Tesla SC with 3-15X more stalls within a few miles. Many Tesla SC are actually within a few feet.
Why does Rivian think they can change a premium, even more than Tesla non-sub price.

my Tesla SC sessions are usually better than RAN because RAN power shares 2 or 3 stalls per cabinet. On a busy weekend roadtrips, I have chose superchargers over RAN just because I know I won’t be sitting at 100kW with two other R1’s.

RAN prices were one of the main reasons to want to charge at a RAN, when all else is equal. But I need to eat and sad to say, Tesla already took many of the “good” spots next to decent fast food restaurants.

Most RAN stations have very low utilization rates. Making those stations the most expensive option will not motivate the few Rivian owners to want to use them.

I really want Rivian to not just survive but thrive. Moves like this seem poorly thought out and executed. It makes we wonder if the decision makers up top really have what it takes.

 

[NeedSumCoffee]

Check your calculator, please.
KWh per kWh, energywise:
energy content of 1 gallon of gas = 33.7 kWh
Therefore, $0.68/kwh x 33.7 kWh = $22.916
Therefore, in my neck of the woods, EV drivers would pay a lot more, 503% more for energy than ICE drivers pay for their energy.

It matters not that an ICE driver might get 20 mpg and your EV gets 1,000 mpg equivalent. Energy is energy is energy.

You have been corrected at least 10 separate times and people have explained to you why your claims laugh in the face of common sense. But you keep repeating the claims. At this point I have to assume you’re doing it on purpose to troll people.

 

[NeedSumCoffee]

Sure, they do. What the hell does efficiency have to do with the cost of energy? None.
A motorcycle pays the same price for gasoline as an ICE car, an ICE truck, etc. By your very faulty reasoning, say a Toyota Prius should pay a lot more for gasoline as an ICE SUV does. Or a motorcycle. Guess what, it does not!!

You really think a Prius getting 50mpg pays the same price for gas to travel 100miles as a truck getting 10mpg? At this point, I am convinced you are simply saying stupid things on purpose to elicit comments.

 

[NC-Rivian]

I just surveyed Washington RAN and Tesla SC near them. That $.44 Tesla SC is Moses lake, far from Spokane. Liberty Lake is down the road from that Spokane Mall RAN and charges $.54.

It seems Rivian is finally implementing market prices, good for them. I'm ready to see a Rivian membership pricing model.

Rivian could easily incorporate membership pricing into their plus program.

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