Stock price prediction upon release of the R2?

[White Shadow]

I realize this is just speculation, but what do you think we'll see happen with Rivian's stock price when the R2 finally goes on sale? The assumption is that it will go up, but how much? Do you think we could possibly see it hit $50? Or is that just not going to happen in 2026 (assuming that the R2 does in fact get released in the first half of the year) and we won't see a big jump in the stock price?

Both Rivian and Lucid are two stocks that I own that have been big losers for the last couple of years and I'm considering dumping them at a loss. My original intention was to buy and hold for the long haul, but I see other opportunities that could be a much better option for me. But if Rivian stock gets a significant bump from the R2, it might be worth holding on to it.

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[runwithscissors]

Hope so as a dummy IPO holder who held...

 

[Nixapatfan]

Not going to hit $50, at best maybe a small bump, going to take years of profitability to get back to their original highs if ever. Take the hit now, sell and buy back to offset any other gains you have.

Only way these companies go that high is if they somehow make a breakthrough in self driving tech like Lucid is trying to be first level 4. Just building cars is not going to get them there.

 

[Zoidz]

Rivian has massive debt in a faltering EV market. I expect a “feel good” bump to maybe $20-$25 max when R2 starts shipping. Beyond that, it’s not going to $50 any time soon unless the EV market in general gets revitalized, or there is some unforeseen “event” that causes Rivian shares to rise.

 

[Golfer04]

Just my opinion, but the stock is only at $14 because of R2. Unless they hit an R2 home run I don't see it going above $20. They don't have the infrastructure in place (service centers) to support huge R2 sales either. Plus they still have software issues that shouldn't happen. On my 4th R1T and they all have them. Hopefully they can get it straightened out. I have an R2 ordered, but ownership is easy for me because I'm 45 mins from Normal. I can't imagine being 150-200 miles from a SC.

 

[savethemanual]

We're heading into the Golden Age of America! All USA stocks are going to be HUGE, we're going to build everything and WIN like you've never seen before .....National Debt over 38 Trillion.

 

[ebellinder2]

Not going to hit $50, at best maybe a small bump, going to take years of profitability to get back to their original highs if ever. Take the hit now, sell and buy back to offset any other gains you have.

Only way these companies go that high is if they somehow make a breakthrough in self driving tech like Lucid is trying to be first level 4. Just building cars is not going to get them there.

Wish the stock would rise to that level but my guesstimate is the R2 will be profitable but only by a small percentage. I am anticipating a stock increase of a few dollar’s. Lots of us are still hoping for a Tesla like situation with stock prices in the hundreds of dollars but Tesla created the demand for EV’s and was the only player in town. Today there is significant competition and an EV is no longer a major technology change to the way we drive, pretty much just another commodity. Hope I am wrong though

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

Until R2 sales and company profits come in, you aren’t going to see a significant bump. Too much competition for people to buy in on speculation for this stock, especially with the concerns about management. Right now, the scuttle is whether Rivian will remain solvent.

 

[DD4ST]

I don’t see the R2 making that much of a difference just because it is released. Too much competition and waning EV interest. Gone are the days of unsupported spikes for new EVs. That is not to say there won’t be small bumps here and there, but profitability is the only way Rivian stock is going to rise to meaningful levels. That is going to take a while unless Rivian gets bought out. Personally, I think the buy-out scenario is very plausible.

 

[mkg3]

...My original intention was to buy and hold for the long haul, but I see other opportunities that could be a much better option for me....

The current market cap at ~$13/share is roughly $16B. If $50/share that would put the market cap at $61B. About the same as Ford (~$52B) and GM (~$64B) with portfolio of products much greater than Rivian.

When investing, one must get rid of emotional attachment to any company and look at the real growth potential. Not a hope and a prayer.

So ask yourself, if you truly believe Rivian will be on par with F and GM once a single EV product is released.

 

[Ramfamnh]

I'd be surprised if it made it above the $18-20 range next year. R2 will take time to ramp even if it is as successful as we hope it will be. It would take a major outside catalyst to really shake things up given that there is huge short interest (21%) and they rapidly dump any stock price pump. It is hard to imagine what the catalyst would be given the macroenvironment. One pipe dream is a Google partnership of some kind given their recent collaborations around casting, maps and apparently Gemini.

 

[runningdenver]

I realize this is just speculation, but what do you think we'll see happen with Rivian's stock price when the R2 finally goes on sale? The assumption is that it will go up, but how much? Do you think we could possibly see it hit $50? Or is that just not going to happen in 2026 (assuming that the R2 does in fact get released in the first half of the year) and we won't see a big jump in the stock price?

Both Rivian and Lucid are two stocks that I own that have been big losers for the last couple of years and I'm considering dumping them at a loss. My original intention was to buy and hold for the long haul, but I see other opportunities that could be a much better option for me. But if Rivian stock gets a significant bump from the R2, it might be worth holding on to it.

I don't know what your capital gains for other investments look like, but I dumped my stock in August to take a big loss and offset against other stocks, then waited the month (to avoid wash sale), and bought it back at pretty much the same price. So while I haven't made money yet on them - I at least got to offset other gains with the Rivian losses... you've still got time to do this before year end, although obviously you then have to hope the stock doesn't pop before you can buy it back....

 

[Jeff B.]

I am not holding my breath on any substantial changes in the stock price after R2 release. I may buy / sell on some price fluctuation, but I am not counting on any big moves.

Like most, I have been holding Rivian at a loss for quite a while, but I continued buy/sell to average down from my initial stock purchase to my current position at $18 per share. I am still very optimistic about Rivian in long term, so it will continue to be a long term hold in my portfolio. Like others have stated, you can't get emotional with stocks, you have to be disciplined and stick to the basics when investing. Set goals for your portfolio and be strategic about when/what to buy/sell. I regularly take losses and gains in my portfolio and routinely reposition my holdings to focus on my long term goals, which Rivian plays a small role.

On paper RIVN is and will continue to be a risky stock. As an investor, you have to be prepared for the volatility and headwinds it will face. For some, that volatility is opportunity, for others, that volatility is nauseating.

 

[evlavista]

My r1s's depreciation is only eclipsed by my rivian stock purchase!
I sure hope it goes up.

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