$2500 Autonomy+ one time purchase now an option on Rivian configurator

[Donald Stanfield]

Sounds like I’m an outlier here, but I’ll probably pay the $2500 since it stays with the vehicle. Will make our R1 a little easier to sell hopefully 10 years down the road. Not sure I would buy it if I didn’t have enough gear shop points. The wording of the email I received makes it pretty clear that gear shop points cannot be used for the monthly payment but can be used for the full 2.5k

if you haven’t seen it, I urge you to check out the AI day video showing what’s coming with point to point city self driving. That should be coming at some point to G2. I would assume in the next update. It looked impressive.

Please do yourself a favor and do not buy this thinking it will help resale value. Factory add ons of any kind have little to no boost in resale value. If you want to get that custom color, or special interior or autonomy driving, by all means do so but don't expect them to boost your vehicle's value. These things are all net negative without question when it comes to resale.

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[PVguy]

THIS. I'm not sure why everyone isn't screaming this point from the rooftops. The current product isnt that much different than what was in the market in 2023. AND they have already announced that current hardware will reach end of life before true point-to-point autonomy.

If you pay $2,500 for this you are basically making a charitable donation to fund Rivian's R&D so they can sell you a new car and make you pay for it all over agin if you actually want autonomy.

I will be canceling my R2 reservation.

 

[zamazenta]

I suspected something, so i went into the shop and picked a car for lease. If I add Autonomy+ it increases the monthly by $35 so it looks like there is some residual factored in. For those who lease it's more attractive and about the same as other packages like wheels or color. It's hard to tell without scrolling a bunch.

 

[dj200]

So I paid $3000 for a paint color option, and $3000 for an interior color option, neither of which actually does anything.
So paying $2500 for Autonomy+, which actually does some stuff, is worth it in my opinion.

 

[cavecreekgoat]

I have a R1T tri I will be picking up in a couple of weeks and will likely pay the $50 a month. On our overnight test drive, it worked pretty well on the PACNW roads we travel. Seems reasonable consideing the lease payment and the cost of these cars. These are pricey, software defined vehicles and $50 is not going to break the bank.

 

[ATLRivvy]

I suspected something, so i went into the shop and picked a car for lease. If I add Autonomy+ it increases the monthly by $35 so it looks like there is some residual factored in. For those who lease it's more attractive and about the same as other packages like wheels or color. It's hard to tell without scrolling a bunch.

They roll the entire $2500 cost into the residual PLUS it increases the lease cost by $36/month. You effectively pay an extra $1300 if you decide to buyout the vehicle at the end or you start the whole process over on a new vehicle with no transferability. Rivian likes it because they effective lock in the cash-flow with you not having the ability to fall back to month to month.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I will be canceling my R2 reservation.

Why? They already said the R2 with Lidar WILL have the functionality he's talking about.

 

[hammick]

Please do yourself a favor and do not buy this thinking it will help resale value. Factory add ons of any kind have little to no boost in resale value. If you want to get that custom color, or special interior or autonomy driving, by all means do so but don't expect them to boost your vehicle's value. These things are all net negative without question when it comes to resale.

I agree with everything you said. However we have over 3k in reward points and they don't have a hard sided roof top tent that we want. A good portion of these points will expire in a year.

We don't get any benefit from trading our vehicles other than convenience so I always sell them myself. Our Tri has full front and rocker PPF and the right packages people will be looking for. The lifetime ADAS may not add value but I can see it making our Tri easier to sell in 9 years to the young enthusiast looking for a well cared for R1S.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I agree with everything you said. However we have over 3k in reward points and they don't have a hard sided roof top tent that we want. A good portion of these points will expire in a year.

We don't get any benefit from trading our vehicles other than convenience so I always sell them myself. Our Tri has full front and rocker PPF and the right packages people will be looking for. The lifetime ADAS may not add value but I can see it making our Tri easier to sell in 9 years to the young enthusiast looking for a well cared for R1S.

Paying with rewards points changes the calculation substantially. It will add more value than letting the 3K in points vanish into the ether.

 

[StuGoss]

Would you pay $2,500 (or more) if Autonomy+ stayed with you and not the vehicle?
Seems like that might help with brand loyalty.
Probably be a nightmare to administer through.

 

[ElGuano]

I'll probably pay the $2500. It's not much, and what I've seen of UHF already is enough of a plus over what the vehicle was originally delivered with last year (zero hands free) that I appreciate the value.

I think what will tip the scales for me is what kind of enhancements/improvements we see to UHF between now and the April-4 deadline.

 

[Ilovejunebugs]

I'll pay the $2,500.00. I like the features and hope they'll keep improving.

 

[TexasBob]

This is an absolute no for me as well but... it is not my car. It will be interesting to see if my wife thinks it is worth $50 a month.

As for the $2,500 upgrade that is a definite no. I've pretty much decided that I am going to trade in her car for a vehicle with real eyes-off freeway capability in 2027.

 

[BigSkies]

They do this because software recurring revenue streams get valued at an ARR multiple for a growth company - in theory 8-10x if the recurring revenue is growing 25%+. So in theory a couple hundred million adds a couple billion to valuation.

Problem is - this recurring revenue stream is attached to a one-time buy in a market with brand loyalty falling off a cliff so it’s going to end up getting discounted to worthless and they likely would be better off going all out to win vehicle market share

I've worked in Silicon Valley enough that I get the logic. I know you're right, and I kind of hate that about the market. I'm just old enough to be cynical about these things.

I'd assume they are modeling higher than 15% take rate over time as the software improves. RJ is pretty adamant that's where the industry is going. Obviously they have a lot of work cut out for them to make that happen.

They're probably assuming a higher take rate and a higher sales price once the product improves. I bet it looks really good on a spreadsheet.

I do financial forecasting for a living, and I can imagine exactly what this looks like on a spreadsheet. It's the type of thing I'd build.

If I put on my CFO hat and start picking apart assumptions, the whole thing would probably fall apart.

The things I see:
-Investors/Corporate always fall for the subscription service trap. It looks amazing on a spreadsheet. You only have to acquire a customer once. It looks like an annuity if you apply a growth rate and a single-digit churn rate. Reality demonstrates this line of thinking to be nonsense most of the time. Look at Blue Apron. The subscription company of subscription companies has largely abandoned that model. Consumer hate subscriptions and will go to financially irrational lengths to avoid them. It doesn't mean the buy-once option will be more successful either.

-These are high-priced options. Uptake will be highest among high-income demographics. I can be convinced that Rivian will see a decent uptake (like 30%) in the R1 crowd. That number will be single-digits at best in the $30k-$50k car demographic. The future of Rivian is scale in lower priced cars, not a niche luxury maker.

-Just because "the entire industry" (aka Tesla) is going this way doesn't mean it will be a good business. Tesla doesn't exactly have a track record of good business decisions over the last few years.

-The spreadsheet probably shows the price going up as the product improves. Reality will likely dictate lower prices over time to keep uptake high. High fixed costs and low marginal costs will encourage pricing that maximized uptake.

 

[iowa_don]

Per: "What is the Rivian Autonomy Platform?"
"Note: In the event of ownership transfer, a one-time purchase of Autonomy+ stays with the vehicle."

Not happy that they have decided to go with the old Tesla FSD model there.

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