Any shot at R2 delivery by July?

[boiseultrarunner]

I want to thank everyone for confirming the prompt delivery of my R2 on June 1, 2026. Have a great weekend.

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[Webleyaz]

My algorithm says first non-employee customer deliveries will be on June 4. So if you receive one of the first 3500 units after that you're golden. The caveat is there's no hard data in my algorithm.

 

[boiseultrarunner]

My algorithm says first non-employee customer deliveries will be on June 4. So if you receive one of the first 3500 units after that you're golden. The caveat is there's no hard data in my algorithm.

Hmm. So I need to apply for a job at Rivian AND accept an offer letter sometime in May. (And move my family, I think.)

 

[NY_Rob]

Hmm. So I need to apply for a job at Rivian AND accept an offer letter sometime in May. (And move my family, I think.)

Or have "friends or family" working for Rivian. That got Kyle (OOS YT reviewer) his R1 before us mere mortals back in the day.

 

[Webleyaz]

Hmm. So I need to apply for a job at Rivian AND accept an offer letter sometime in May. (And move my family, I think.)

Yep. And somehow convince them you've been there for years.

 

[Jeremy3292]

There's many variables, not least the production ramp, but that aside, I suspect the typical take rate on any of these reservations is 25% on a good day (reducing, the longer the reservation period gets), and because of the LIDAR thing and people wanting the cheaper models, I would guess that the take rate for Launch will be closer to 10%.

this is all pure guesswork though. As we now know, the Cybertruck take rate was sub 5%, but it failed to deliver on expectations. Model 3, back in the day, eventually converted ~70%, but the world was craving a smaller EV at the time (and the Tesla brand/Elon was untarnished). R2 is typical of neither of these, it has met most, if not all, expectations, but it's also not a $35k compact.

TLDR; 50/50 on your delivery being before mid-July

This is the way to look at it IMO. Around 200k reservations in total last I heard, but the take rate won't be anywhere near that. I suspect a lot of people are wanting the cheaper version(s) at under $50k which is 2027 at the earliest. And many people will just fall off and get their $100 back as people's lives change.

The Cybertruck was supposed to be sold out for a year or more at the time and then anyone could buy one immediately after like 3-6 months lol. Model 3 isn't as comparable like you said bc it was first mass market EV and people who signed up actually wanted it as it was a small market then; EV's are far more mainstream now.

So all in all with a very late reservation myself I am hopeful I can get a premium model by EOY or early 2027.

 

[Zoidz]

 

[Webleyaz]

This is the way to look at it IMO. Around 200k reservations in total last I heard, but the take rate won't be anywhere near that. I suspect a lot of people are wanting the cheaper version(s) at under $50k which is 2027 at the earliest. And many people will just fall off and get their $100 back as people's lives change.

The Cybertruck was supposed to be sold out for a year or more at the time and then anyone could buy one immediately after like 3-6 months lol. Model 3 isn't as comparable like you said bc it was first mass market EV and people who signed up actually wanted it as it was a small market then; EV's are far more mainstream now.

So all in all with a very late reservation myself I am hopeful I can get a premium model by EOY or early 2027.

Clearly, all reservations won't stick. The CT isn't a great example since the original promised price was under $40k and the first trucks were more than twice that whereas the $45k R2 promised price is only off by $12k. Surely some will want/have to hold out for the less expensive trim levels but I imagine quite a few will keep their reservations until then. Plus, the CT became a very polarized piece of equipment that many probably abandoned as not worth the controversy. The R2 is much friendlier.

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