Georgia Plant Changes Impact R3 Production (2029-2030)?

[BigSkies]

Part of the reason Rivian is being vague is simply because Rivian doesn't know the full details yet. They're planning for certain production volumes, but there's a lot of unknown details.

For example, what is the end-consumer demand for R2 in the US? Tesla sells ~300k cars in the US per year. Other EV models makers to cap out around 50k per year (this is from memory, I don't have sales numbers in front of me). There's a lot of middle ground in there. I feel confident Rivian will do significantly better than 50k/yr of the OEM's, but I don't think they'll get to 300k/yr of Tesla for a while. The gray-area between those numbers is greater than the total production capacity of Normal.

They can dedicate early efforts to the US is sales are strong. They can pull forward overseas sales if the US is struggling.

Georgia is also coming online right around the time the political winds will likely change in the US. It's anyone's guess how that will turn out.

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[VSG]

Other than the building of the factories, Rivian seems to take a long time from unveiling to availability. I honestly thought last March the R2 would be available. As of now, we were told Spring, late Spring, but don't know what that really mean. Configuration is not available, at least to the public.

What are you talking about? When Rivian announced the R2 back in March 2024, they said it would start shipping in the first half of 2026. And here it is, first half of 2026, and they have started shipping small numbers to employees, with the general public to follow in June (just a few weeks from now) as production ramps.

They're doing exactly what they said they would do, and the rollout is going exactly as we expected it would go.

If you expected anything other than that, that's on you. Don't go making up stories about how Rivian is slow and failing to fulfill its promises.

(And BTW, if they had opened up the configurator two years ago, this forum would now be full of people complaining that they have been WAITING FOR TWO YEARS AND RIVIAN HAS FAILED TO DELIVER - similar to what you're implying. They learned their lesson from the R1, and they're not going to make that mistake again. The configurator will go live when you can order a R2, no sooner.)

Do you remember what the world was like two years ago and what has happened since? I find it pretty remarkable that given everything in terms of import taxes, inflation, bans on materials from various countries and other protectionist measures, cancelling of tax incentives for EVs, increased subsidies for petrochemicals, cancelling government programs that support domestic manufacturing, undermining trade relations with our two nearest auto manufacturing partners, war, famine, genocide, reduced life expectancies - despite all these things, Rivian is still giving use the R2 on time as promised more than two years ago. Contrast that with all the other automakers who are cancelling models and going back on the plans they announced two years ago. Rivian is among the few companies that have weathered the storm to do exactly what they promised they would do.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Other than the building of the factories, Rivian seems to take a long time from unveiling to availability.

Couldn't be further from truth.

In the car business, it typically takes 10+ years to develop a new car, from product plan to production. 6 years is considered extremely compressed/intense development timeline. Rivian unveiled R2 concept just over 2 years ago, March 7, 2024. And probably started working on it, in earnest, around the time, or just before, R1 customer deliveries started, early 2022. And, just as VSG points out: Rivian has met every single R2 milestone they've shared with the public.

R1 concepts were shown to the world at LA Auto Show, late November of 2018. Between then and first customer deliveries in early 2022, there was a global pandemic and massive disruption to global manufacturing and supply chain.

And R2's path to deliveries is not without its own drama. Just look back at the political and financial headlines since last election cycle.

Do the math. Flaws and all, in total context, Rivian performed a miracle. Twice.

And speaking as a gen 1 owner, it's astonishing how good the company's very first product is.

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