📊 2022 Q4 and Full-Year Earnings Results & Shareholder Letter: 50K production goal for 2023, ~400 Mile Range for Max Pack

[Zoidz]

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1874178/000119312521321716/d157488ds1a.htm

Sounds like they are right on track with the S1 numbers.

Yeah, that's what I have been saying, Rivian is performing to the plan they stated over a year ago. Yet industry anal-ysts and armchair production planning experts here get other ideas in their heads and express disappointment in production volumes and capacities that Rivian planned a year ago, and they are performing to plan. Crucify a company for doing what they said they would do. SMHL.

Nov 2021 S1 Ammendment:
"Based on our current production forecast, we expect to fill our preorder backlog of approximately 55,400 R1 vehicles by the end of 2023. Our manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois (the “Normal Factory”) is currently equipped to produce up to 150,000 vehicles annually (distributed between the R1 platform, which will be used to produce the R1T and R1S, and the RCV platform, which will be used to produce EDVs and other commercial vehicles), when the equipment is operated at full rate and on multiple shifts. The current annual installed capacity for the R1 platform and RCV platform is approximately 65,000 and 85,000 vehicles, respectively. We produced 104 R1T vehicles during the last week of October 2021, representing approximately 8% of our target R1 production rate. Our target is to produce approximately 1,310 R1 vehicles a week, which when annualized (assuming 49.6 working weeks per year), equates to the current installed R1 platform capacity of approximately 65,000 R1 vehicles annually."

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[shrink]

To put 50k in perspective for Rivian’s second full year of production. Tesla only had 31.6k vehicles in 2014 their second full year and did not hit 50k until 2015 their 3rd full year.

People seem to forget that Tesla’s first model was the Roadster, which was first produced in 2008 and sold through early 2012 with a production run of about 2500.

 

[zefram47]

Rivian's 50k makes Fisker 2023 projection of increasing to 40k seem very favorable.

Yeah, but Fisker is using Magna for production. Hardly a startup and known to be capable of execution to suppliers.

 

[Zoidz]

it is 2023 not 2020 anymore.

Doesn't matter. The semiconductor fab industry is still constrained. I have $75K of PLC control system hardware on backorder from Allen Bradley that is still 9 - 12 months out.

Ford's latest report in February was that they are constrained by chip shortages, and Rivian is low man on the totem pole compared to Ford. Ford's 4th quarter shortfall was 4x Rivian's entire 2022 production.

"Ford blamed chip shortages and other supply chain issues and production "instabilities" that raised costs, along with lower-than-expected volumes. Ford shares dropped more than 6% in after-market trading.
...
Lawler said Ford's fourth-quarter sales volumes were 100,000 vehicles short of expectations. He blamed most of that on the company's inability to get enough chips for its cars. Lawler said it was "hand-to-hand combat" to get chips and capacity was still constrained for the larger, older chips used in the auto sector."

ARS Technica reports chip shortages throughout the 2023.

Supply Chain shortages are still a problem.

 

[SantaFeSpence]

Hold it - am I reading this right? 350mile range for a large pack and around 400 for the Max pack? Only 50 miles more range for $10,000? I’ve got a Max pack R1T ordered - but give me reasons not to switch to a large, and save 10 grand.

 

[2025R1S]

Semiconductor industry is going thru a slow down. Fords reporting doesn’t lineup with what semiconductor manufacturers are saying.

same for freight shipping. Ports aren’t backed up like they used to be either.

Doesn't matter. The semiconductor fab industry is still constrained. I have $75K of PLC control system hardware on backorder from Allen Bradley that is still 9 - 12 months out.

Ford's latest report in February was that they are constrained by chip shortages, and Rivian is low man on the totem pole compared to Ford. Ford's 4th quarter shortfall was 4x Rivian's entire 2022 production.

"Ford blamed chip shortages and other supply chain issues and production "instabilities" that raised costs, along with lower-than-expected volumes. Ford shares dropped more than 6% in after-market trading.
...
Lawler said Ford's fourth-quarter sales volumes were 100,000 vehicles short of expectations. He blamed most of that on the company's inability to get enough chips for its cars. Lawler said it was "hand-to-hand combat" to get chips and capacity was still constrained for the larger, older chips used in the auto sector."

ARS Technica reports chip shortages throughout the 2023.

Supply Chain shortages are still a problem.

 

[jjswan33]

Semiconductor industry is going thru a slow down. Fords reporting doesn’t lineup with what semiconductor manufacturers are saying.

same for freight shipping. Ports aren’t backed up like they used to be either.

You are confusing high end semiconductors for laptops and servers with those custom silicon products used in cars etc. Very different products.

Companies like Intel and AMD that sell chips to OEMs for laptops and servers are going through a slowdown because demand for those products is down.

https://www.jabil.com/blog/global-chip-shortages.html

 

[Zoidz]

Semiconductor industry is going thru a slow down. Fords reporting doesn’t lineup with what semiconductor manufacturers are saying.

same for freight shipping. Ports aren’t backed up like they used to be either.

The oversupply/slowdown is in consumer electronics chips such as phones, computers, etc. It varies sector by sector, auto is still constrained. You don't just flip a switch to convert an LTE phone modem fab over to a automobile entertainment ASIC overnight. Very different fab tech.

DId you read the ARS Technica article?

"The head of Onsemi, Hassane El-Khoury, told the paper that "there's nothing you can do now to change 2023" and that "we will be adding capacity every quarter, every month in 2023 to meet our customer demand."

General Motors has had to revise its plan to build 400,000 electric vehicles by the end of 2023—now it hopes to meet that target about six months late.

Infineon CEO Jochen Hanebeck as saying: "I do expect quite a longtime shortage." Stellantis' head, Carlos Tavares, also thinks the problem will continue throughout 2023, and that's bad news for anyone who wants to buy a new car."

TechRepulic
"For some sectors, such as consumer electronics, the chip shortage has eased because of falling demand due to an impending recession, inflated cost of living and higher inventory levels, observed John Waite, vice president for global supply chain at global professional services firm Genpact."

“Automakers in particular are still facing serious challenges getting the chips they need, which is forcing some to continue to cut back production or rewrite software to use different or fewer chips,” Stringer said."

 

[2025R1S]

Tesla can’t be all that unique. They still break records every quarter. How come they manage, but everyone else is struggling?

The oversupply/slowdown is in consumer electronics chips such as phones, computers, etc. It varies sector by sector, auto is still constrained. You don't just flip a switch to convert an LTE phone modem fab over to a automobile entertainment ASIC overnight. Very different fab tech.

DId you read the ARS Technica article?

"The head of Onsemi, Hassane El-Khoury, told the paper that "there's nothing you can do now to change 2023" and that "we will be adding capacity every quarter, every month in 2023 to meet our customer demand."

General Motors has had to revise its plan to build 400,000 electric vehicles by the end of 2023—now it hopes to meet that target about six months late.

Infineon CEO Jochen Hanebeck as saying: "I do expect quite a longtime shortage." Stellantis' head, Carlos Tavares, also thinks the problem will continue throughout 2023, and that's bad news for anyone who wants to buy a new car."

TechRepulic
"For some sectors, such as consumer electronics, the chip shortage has eased because of falling demand due to an impending recession, inflated cost of living and higher inventory levels, observed John Waite, vice president for global supply chain at global professional services firm Genpact."

“Automakers in particular are still facing serious challenges getting the chips they need, which is forcing some to continue to cut back production or rewrite software to use different or fewer chips,” Stringer said."

 

[emoore]

Tesla can’t be all that unique. They still break records every quarter. How come they manage, but everyone else is struggling?

Ummmm isn’t Rivian breaking their production records every quarter too?

 

[Zoidz]

Tesla can’t be all that unique. They still break records every quarter. How come they manage, but everyone else is struggling?

Compared to Rivian, Tesla is much larger and more established. Compared to the big 3, Tesla has small needs and can be nimble. Perhaps that combination makes them fairly unique?

 

[NineElectrics]

Tesla can’t be all that unique. They still break records every quarter. How come they manage, but everyone else is struggling?

By removing ultrasonic parking sensors and lumbar supports from their cars.

 

[DuoRivians]

Compared to Rivian, Tesla is much larger and more established. Compared to the big 3, Tesla has small needs and can be nimble. Perhaps that combination makes them fairly unique?

If it’s chips that’s making a difference between 50k and 60k production, let’s say, it seems worth it to pay more for those marginal chips to keep the company’s stock price and momentum up.

 

[eDad_R1S]

What's coming new in 2024? We'll have to see -- maybe a significant platform technology change?

"We expect the ramp of our second shift for the R1 line to continue to progress through the
first quarter of 2023. During the fourth quarter of 2023, we intend to take both the R1 and
RCV line down for a limited time to prepare for the integration of vehicle technologies we
plan to implement in 2024."

I wonder what technology improvements they are planning. The range reference could be a modest increase from simple improvements in the electronics they mentioned and potentially new SiC power chips. Maybe also a move to giga castings that was casually mentioned? But these seem like something that would be implemented across all vehicles so what are they planning from an ASP increase? Finally releasing the camp kitchen & tent?

“In the first half of 2024, we intend to take production of the plant down for a few weeks to implement new technologies into our vehicles…. While, the incorporation of these new technologies temporarily impacts production they are expected to provide improved vehicle performance in range and deliver cost reductions that are critically important to our path to profitability”

Then later

“But we do see the introduction of some of the new technologies and some of the new features to allow us to actually grow ASP. As Claire said with not only the new prices coming on for post March 1 orders, but also to reflect some of the new technologies are going to be in the vehicle.”

 

[DTown3011]

Did they say anything about the current reservation count on the call, or are they no longer disclosing this information?

Its more about what they didn’t say:

In addition, Rivian for the first time did not provide an update on its vehicle reservations, raising a “red flag,” Nelson said, especially as other EV makers such as Lucid Group Inc. reported declining reservation counts.

In the call, Scaringe sidestepped a question about Rivian’s order book, saying that despite rising interest rates and other demand-crimping factors, “the demand backlog we have is very robust.”

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