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SANZC02

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Rivian posted this today.

October 3, 2022

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) today announced production totals for the quarter ending September 30, 2022. The company produced 7,363 vehicles at its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois and delivered 6,584 vehicles during the same period.

These figures remain in line with the company’s expectations, and it believes it is on track to deliver on the 25,000 annual production guidance previously provided.
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mkg3

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Wow. that's a lot of vehicles pending delivery. Gonna be some happy order-holders this month (October)!
Keep in mind that Rivian does not break out product mix. Those pending includes EDV for Amazon.

Recalling the comments made during the last earnings call, second shift was added at the of August/early September so increasing production for the whole quarter probably will get you around 10K vehicles making the total for the year around 25K.
 

mikehmb

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Wow. that's a lot of vehicles pending delivery. Gonna be some happy order-holders this month (October)!
Looks like I might be one of them! Just got off the phone with my Guide. Truck is in Normal, and should know EOW if it ships. I’m in the bay area CA, so 4 weeks by train followed by QA …
 

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Sgt Beavis

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That doesn't make sense. My truck was built at the end of July and the VIN is 9800. Haven't we seen R1Ts with VINs in the 11000 range?
 

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That doesn't make sense. My truck was built at the end of July and the VIN is 9800. Haven't we seen R1Ts with VINs in the 11000 range?
I thought its into the mid 12's?
 

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There were many pre-prod VINs that won't count within those numbers, probably a few thousand in total.
 

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So, if I am tracking 2022 Correctly:

Q1: 2553
Q2: 4401
Q3: 7363

We're at 14,317 vehicles so far, so they need to pump ~11K out in Q4

Considering a decent amount of the 3k increase from Q2 to Q3 came from adding a second shift - this means they need CONSIDERABLE process/efficiency gains on the lines to get another 4k over Q3 numbers out. Unless they're looking at adding a 3rd shift very soon? Getting what, a 66% increase in just straight line efficiency (really more as it's a ramp over time so december production would need to be significant;y above that mark to compensate for October being below it) is a pretty tall task. I think they will come close, but I suspect a 22-23k number at EoY- which I still think is great, I wouldn't complain - but wall street... if they hit 24,999 it will be a "massive miss" all over the press which is just dumb.

It's good that Rivian is still confident though, who knows, maybe they know something we don't
 

Sgt Beavis

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damn, this guy is good at what he does. its no wonder he gets millions of views.
That doesn't make sense. My truck was built at the end of July and the VIN is 9800. Haven't we seen R1Ts with VINs in the 11000 range?
I thought its into the mid 12's?

Nevermind, Rivian built 7363 IN the 3rd Quarter.. So that would be in addition to what they've built in the 1st and 2nd quarter..
 

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AdamsFan1983

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So, if I am tracking 2022 Correctly:

Q1: 2553
Q2: 4401
Q3: 7363

We're at 14,317 vehicles so far, so they need to pump ~11K out in Q4

Considering a decent amount of the 3k increase from Q2 to Q3 came from adding a second shift - this means they need CONSIDERABLE process/efficiency gains on the lines to get another 4k over Q3 numbers out. Unless they're looking at adding a 3rd shift very soon? Getting what, a 66% increase in just straight line efficiency (really more as it's a ramp over time so december production would need to be significant;y above that mark to compensate for October being below it) is a pretty tall task. I think they will come close, but I suspect a 22-23k number at EoY- which I still think is great, I wouldn't complain - but wall street... if they hit 24,999 it will be a "massive miss" all over the press which is just dumb.

It's good that Rivian is still confident though, who knows, maybe they know something we don't
FWIW, Rivian has said over and over again, their observed run rate is much higher than the production numbers indicate. They've said more than a few times that they stockpile components and run the line in pushes to observe what they are capable of re: production run rate. For all we know some of the supply chain issues are alleviating. Rivian has also commented that a 3rd shift is coming in Q4.
 

zipzag

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Supply chain overall is really improving. Shipping costs from China are much less than a year ago. So Rivian may finally have predictability in receiving parts. I assume actual assembly has never been the bottleneck.

Ging from 7K to 100K in Q4 should normally be very doable. They have been at for a year.
 
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SANZC02

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So, if I am tracking 2022 Correctly:

Q1: 2553
Q2: 4401
Q3: 7363

We're at 14,317 vehicles so far, so they need to pump ~11K out in Q4

Considering a decent amount of the 3k increase from Q2 to Q3 came from adding a second shift - this means they need CONSIDERABLE process/efficiency gains on the lines to get another 4k over Q3 numbers out. Unless they're looking at adding a 3rd shift very soon? Getting what, a 66% increase in just straight line efficiency (really more as it's a ramp over time so december production would need to be significant;y above that mark to compensate for October being below it) is a pretty tall task. I think they will come close, but I suspect a 22-23k number at EoY- which I still think is great, I wouldn't complain - but wall street... if they hit 24,999 it will be a "massive miss" all over the press which is just dumb.

It's good that Rivian is still confident though, who knows, maybe they know something we don't
Don’t forget about the separate EDV line, up until middle of 3rd qtr they were not building EDVs at scale. The 2nd R1 shift did not start until late in September. To get the 10k by end of the year they just need 5k off of each line. Based on the 3rd qtr numbers unless they run short on supplies seems like they could beat those numbers pretty easily.
 

Lysdexic

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Supply chain overall is really improving. Shipping costs from China are much less than a year ago. So Rivian may finally have predictability in receiving parts. I assume actual assembly has never been the bottleneck.

Ging from 7K to 100K in Q4 should normally be very doable. They have been at for a year.
Going from 7k to 100k in Q4 would indeed, be impressive 😄
 

NY_Rob

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Supposedly a 3rd shift is coming on line s00n, hope build quality doesn't get any worse....
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