Musk's twitter problem a boon for Rivian sales? [***NO POLITICS***]

[Donald Stanfield]

Objectively, this will be fascinating to watch evolve. The past several years have shown that we can learn a lot about ourselves by studying the gap between prediction and eventual reality.

One hundred percent true. I couldnt agree with this more. Nothing shows your cognitive bias better than making an incorrect prediction when it was obvious to others.

Recognizing you have biases in the first place is the biggest step towards personal growth.

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[PeterSK]

I'm new here, and my first stab at this touched (as neutrally as possible) on politics so was deleted. I'll try again with my observations on this question.

I read a respected TSLA analyst's comments the other day (can't remember who) which I agree with, who said that Musk's Twitter activity has three negative impacts on Tesla/TSLA: 1) Musk sold $4B of TSLA to help fund the acquisition, and there are concerns he will need to sell more; 2) He is distracted by Twitter at a time when Tesla needs attention to get Austin/Berlin fully ramped up and new plants launched, and delayed new products and software done, etc.; 3) Because of his strong personal association with Tesla, Musk's comments/actions on Twitter create a reputational impact on the Tesla brand.

I've owned Teslas and TSLA for about ten years, and observed over the decade that as Musk has gained fame, he's become more of a publicity-starved and often puerile jerk. This is particularly true in the last few years, as Tesla's success and Musk's incredible wealth materialized. He was no longer struggling with Model 3 production hell, so had time on his hands and started looking for other diversions like Twitter.

I run an annual fundraising Tesla raffle for a Boston-based climate nonprofit, Climate XChange. This year is our 7th year, and sales started out slow. We fixed some technical issues with Google Ads and our site index, but they were still slow. Then we got feedback that some past and potential ticket buyers are no longer excited about winning a Tesla, given Musk's recent behavior. So I looked at alternatives, and we made deposits and added the R1S and R1T as extra grand prize options for those not interested in a Tesla! My research brought me here, which reminds me of what Tesla Motors Club used to be in the old days, before the huge volumes of Models 3 and Y. I wound up put down a personal R1S deposit as well, to replace my aging 2016 X.

So my response to the original question is that Musk's Twitter antics are probably not a near-term boon for Rivian and other EVs' sales, at least because at the moment most are supply-constrained, but I think they will help Rivian and other EV brands establish themselves as viable alternatives to Tesla, perhaps earlier than might have happened otherwise.

That said, maybe this is all Musk playing 3-dimensional chess to drive Tesla's mission of auto industry transformation - he gets some of the original Tesla buyers to switch to and drive growth of other EV brands, while his new fans start buying Teslas!

 

[ERguy]

Tesla stock is slightly up over the last 5 day, and Rivian stock is down.

The media is 100% fueling this hysteria about Elon Musk's behavior supposedly harming Twitter. Contrary to what the news would have you believe, people aren't running from Twitter or Tesla. New Twitter memberships are at an all time high.

I can't predict how this will impact EV sales, but if Elon's decisions regarding Twitter are not running off customers from Twitter, I doubt it will drive away Tesla buyers either.

 

[rraj2k81]

And now he is going after Apple,


This guys needs to be put in a straight jacket and locked away!

 

[Dark-Fx]

New Twitter memberships are at an all time high.

Is that information available from a third party?

 

[Dark-Fx]

And now he is going after Apple,


This guys needs to be put in a straight jacket and locked away!

Just don't say that on Twitter or you'll get banned.

 

[PeterSK]

And now he is going after Apple,


This guys needs to be put in a straight jacket and locked away!

Yeah I'm sure firing up your millions of followers to go after your advertisers is a good way to attract them back to your platform. Or is this a blackmail play? Advertise with me or I'll sic them on you.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Is that information available from a third party?

I already dropped a link to a news article saying so on page 5 of this thread.

 

[SANZC02]

Tesla stock is slightly up over the last 5 day, and Rivian stock is down.

The media is 100% fueling this hysteria about Elon Musk's behavior supposedly harming Twitter. Contrary to what the news would have you believe, people aren't running from Twitter or Tesla. New Twitter memberships are at an all time high.

I can't predict how this will impact EV sales, but if Elon's decisions regarding Twitter are not running off customers from Twitter, I doubt it drives away Tesla buyers either.

I’m not sure the Twitter noise is impacting Tesla. If you look at both Rivian and Tesla today they are both down around 20% over their highs in the last month.

The Tesla market adjustments started before any of the Twitter talk started with Tesla being down 55.5% from their highs on Nov 4th, 2021. Most of that was lost by May of this year With a slight recovery before falling again.

 

[ERguy]

Is that information available from a third party?

What do you mean?

If you mean is it being reported by third parties? The answer is yes.

If you asking where the data is coming from... Of course it's coming from Twitter. Where else would any 3rd party get access to the number of Twitter memberships? It would have to come from Twitter.

https://www.engadget.com/twitter-user-signups-hit-all-time-high-says-elon-musk-180252792.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladi...ive-users-on-as-he-promises-new-features/amp/

 

[Count Orlok]

Is that information available from a third party?

doesn't matter if it can be confirmed... these new accounts are mostly bots now that Elona McNutter is running the show.

 

[ERguy]

I’m not sure the Twitter noise is impacting Tesla. If you look at both Rivian and Tesla today they are both down around 20% over their highs in the last month.

The Tesla market adjustments started before any of the Twitter talk started with Tesla being down 55.5% from their highs on Nov 4th, 2021. Most of that was lost by May of this year With a slight recovery before falling again.

Precisely my point.

Musk has been polarizing for quite some time, but there are more than enough Elon fans and Tesla supporters to keep Tesla growing for now to counteract any negative publicity he generates.

 

[Dark-Fx]

What do you mean?

If you mean is it being reported by third parties? The answer is yes.

If you asking where the data is coming from... Of course it's coming from Twitter. Where else would any 3rd party get access to the number of Twitter memberships? It would have to come from Twitter.

https://www.engadget.com/twitter-user-signups-hit-all-time-high-says-elon-musk-180252792.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladi...ive-users-on-as-he-promises-new-features/amp/

"Says Elon Musk"

 

[ERguy]

"Says Elon Musk"

Aka the the CEO of the only company that would have access to the raw data.

Now if some other source reported this data without Twitter verifying it... Then I would understand your skepticism.

 

[JPC]

Is that information available from a third party?

Nope. And it won't be unless we start to learn more about the inner workings through an FTC action or something along those lines.


The new memberships are likely people who had been on Gab and Truth Social. But in any event, it doesn't help Twitter if advertisers are fleeing--which has absolutely happened. The $8 pay-for-relevance move is not going to generate nearly enough revenue and will just exacerbate advertiser mistrust.

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