Musk's twitter problem a boon for Rivian sales? [***NO POLITICS***]

[s4wrxttcs]

Normally the CEO of a company doesn't play a role in my purchasing decision, but it did with Tesla.

In 2015 part of why I got a Tesla Model S was the CEO seemed pretty awesome with the whole SpaceX thing, and EV's. He seemed to understand that customers didn't want compromises. Musk also understood that he needed to win customers over by having things like guaranteed resale, and free supercharging for life. He also knew he need to roll out the superchargers quickly.

In late 2016 the whole FSD fiasco really soured my relationship with the company. I still enjoyed their products, but I wanted to avoid any FSD conversation like the plague..

In 2018 I decided to trade in my Model S for a Performance Model 3 which better matched the types of cars I got. I did so despite Musk acting in ways I was against, and I even got FSD (not that I was ever expecting to be self driving).

As time went on I enjoyed the car, but disliked the decisions Elon made. The decisions started to detract from my enjoyment of the vehicle. Some were minor things like UI updates that I didn't like, and some were significant like the autolights no longer coming on with the rain.

Overall I felt like Tesla was a live by the sword, but die by the sword type of experiences.

They can innovate quickly because one person dictates decisions. but they can also ruin things quickly because that one person disregards any UI studies.

Ironically what led me to Rivian was the lack of any real innovation.

I didn't feel like the Y was a significant enough departure from the 3 to bother with it.

Like a lot of car enthusiast I started to simply get bored with what I had. I was bored with passengers EV's and I wanted something more exciting.

So that played a large role in why I got the Rivian. The Rivian was simply the new shiny thing.

Now I'm still not happy with the Rivian. It makes all kinds of noises, and has weird glitches. The EA network is horribly unreliable. Off-road the Rivian is stellar, but also fear inducing due to not wanting to break it. The wait times for service are crazy at least in the PNW.

If the loaner doesn't have the problems my truck has I'm going to have to seriously fight the urge to simply not return it.

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[PeterSK]

I'm new here, and my first stab at this touched (as neutrally as possible) on politics so was deleted. I'll try again with my observations on this question.

I read a respected TSLA analyst's comments the other day (can't remember who) which I agree with, who said that Musk's Twitter activity has three negative impacts on Tesla/TSLA: 1) Musk sold $4B of TSLA to help fund the acquisition, and there are concerns he will need to sell more; 2) He is distracted by Twitter at a time when Tesla needs attention to get Austin/Berlin fully ramped up and new plants launched, and delayed new products and software done, etc.; 3) Because of his strong personal association with Tesla, Musk's comments/actions on Twitter create a reputational impact on the Tesla brand.

I've owned Teslas and TSLA for about ten years, and observed over the decade that as Musk has gained fame, he's become more of a publicity-starved and often puerile jerk. This is particularly true in the last few years, as Tesla's success and Musk's incredible wealth materialized. He was no longer struggling with Model 3 production hell, so had time on his hands and started looking for other diversions like Twitter.

I run an annual fundraising Tesla raffle for a Boston-based climate nonprofit, Climate XChange. This year is our 7th year, and sales started out slow. We fixed some technical issues with Google Ads and our site index, but they were still slow. Then we got feedback that some past and potential ticket buyers are no longer excited about winning a Tesla, given Musk's recent behavior. So I looked at alternatives, and we made deposits and added the R1S and R1T as extra grand prize options for those not interested in a Tesla! My research brought me here, which reminds me of what Tesla Motors Club used to be in the old days, before the huge volumes of Models 3 and Y. I wound up put down a personal R1S deposit as well, to replace my aging 2016 X.

So my response to the original question is that Musk's Twitter antics are probably not a near-term boon for Rivian and other EVs' sales, at least because at the moment most are supply-constrained, but I think they will help Rivian and other EV brands establish themselves as viable alternatives to Tesla, perhaps earlier than might have happened otherwise.

That said, maybe this is all Musk playing 3-dimensional chess to drive Tesla's mission of auto industry transformation - he gets some of the original Tesla buyers to switch to and drive growth of other EV brands, while his new fans start buying Teslas!

I think my Musk 3-dimensional chess theory to sell Teslas to his new fans, while it may have been Elon's hope, is a fail...

 

[Dark-Fx]

I think my Musk 3-dimensional chess theory to sell Teslas to his new fans, while it may have been Elon's hope, is a fail...

Imagine being on catturds side of the aisle and acting like you give a shit about the environmental aspects of a vehicle just for the sake of being argumentative.

 

[Inkedsphynx]

I'd comment more thoroughly on this thread but it's basically impossible for me to separate Musk from politics at this point, and that's entirely his doing.

I'll just say this - in the very early years I was super excited about Tesla and very much wanted one. In the middle years I had already figured out Elon was not the messiah most think he is and I was way less excited but still willing to go for a Tesla, despite Elon. Now - you literally couldn't pay me to own a Tesla.

All three of these stances can be directly tied to Elon and only Elon.

I don't expect my opinions to be everyone's opinions, but I think there are enough of us with that opinion that Tesla will lose sales. At a minimum they've lost any potential future sale from me. So yes, Musk's behavior since acquiring Twitter, and on Twitter, are going to impact his sales and help his competitors.

 

[Mathme]

For a long time, Tesla was basically the only EV game in town. Noe, I think the largest problem with Tesla is the Model S is 10 years old, the X is about 8-9, while the 3 and Y are about 5 model years old. Additionally, there's the notorious build quality with Tesla. The Savior Cybertruck is vaporware at this point.

There are many newer EVs coming to market each day and when people have a choice, they will make choices.

Yes Tesla has a great charging network but with the fed $ going to EV charging, that Tesla supercharger network won't be a standout forever.

 

[Bristlecone]

I'd comment more thoroughly on this thread but it's basically impossible for me to separate Musk from politics at this point, and that's entirely his doing.

I'll just say this - in the very early years I was super excited about Tesla and very much wanted one. In the middle years I had already figured out Elon was not the messiah most think he is and I was way less excited but still willing to go for a Tesla, despite Elon. Now - you literally couldn't pay me to own a Tesla.

All three of these stances can be directly tied to Elon and only Elon.

I don't expect my opinions to be everyone's opinions, but I think there are enough of us with that opinion that Tesla will lose sales. At a minimum they've lost any potential future sale from me. So yes, Musk's behavior since acquiring Twitter, and on Twitter, are going to impact his sales and help his competitors.

Same.

 

[Dark-Fx]

I'll just say this - in the very early years I was super excited about Tesla and very much wanted one.

Time to compare your nostalgia to today's reality.

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a15117388/2013-tesla-model-s-test-review/

My R1T is significantly better than Tesla's first mass-market product.

 

[Inkedsphynx]

Time to compare your nostalgia to today's reality.

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a15117388/2013-tesla-model-s-test-review/

My R1T is significantly better than Tesla's first mass-market product.

I've been dreaming of owning an electric vehicle since I was a kid, many many years ago. Tesla was the first realistic opportunity for me to make that a reality while also meeting my other personal needs and desires.

The R1T wasn't even a dream at the time when I was excited about the idea of owning a Tesla. At that time, it was the only thing of it's kind on the planet, similar to how the R1T was when I first got it. I'm not being nostalgic at all, I don't have positive feelings in retrospect for Tesla, but again, it was the first thing out there that would have potentially allowed me to realize a life-long dream. Of course I was excited about the idea.

If Tesla and Rivian were side-by-side out of the gate last year, I'd 100% have chosen Rivian over Tesla, but that's not really a realistic comparison. I'm also certainly not going to state that Tesla's initial quality was superior to Rivian's. Quite the opposite, in fact.

 

[PeterSK]

I'd comment more thoroughly on this thread but it's basically impossible for me to separate Musk from politics at this point, and that's entirely his doing.

I'll just say this - in the very early years I was super excited about Tesla and very much wanted one. In the middle years I had already figured out Elon was not the messiah most think he is and I was way less excited but still willing to go for a Tesla, despite Elon. Now - you literally couldn't pay me to own a Tesla.

All three of these stances can be directly tied to Elon and only Elon.

I don't expect my opinions to be everyone's opinions, but I think there are enough of us with that opinion that Tesla will lose sales. At a minimum they've lost any potential future sale from me. So yes, Musk's behavior since acquiring Twitter, and on Twitter, are going to impact his sales and help his competitors.

I agree. And clearly many others do, as witnessed by the dismal sales in our raffle this year. They've picked up somewhat since we added the Rivians, but we have sold about half the tickets we did at this time last year, and have just over six weeks to go... thanks, Elon.

 

[PeterSK]

Time to compare your nostalgia to today's reality.

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a15117388/2013-tesla-model-s-test-review/

My R1T is significantly better than Tesla's first mass-market product.

True, but Rivian was able to stand on the shoulders of Tesla and others. A decade since the Model S introduction made for lots of learning. And Rivian intelligently borrowed much of the driver interface from Tesla (not the yoke and buttons, thankfully!), making it easier for drivers to transition from or switch back and forth between Tesla and Rivian. When my R1S is delivered I will trade in my 2016 Model X but will still have a Model Y that I will continue to drive frequently.

 

[Dark-Fx]

I'm also certainly not going to state that Tesla's initial quality was superior to Rivian's. Quite the opposite, in fact.

I got to see the Model S sheet metal before the vehicle was officially revealed. I briefly worked on the paint system while a coworker was out sick and people from Tesla were visiting our plant to sign off on the equipment. He warned me how bad those guys were to do work for. He was right about them and it soured me on Tesla (beyond that I couldn't afford one back then anyway). Tesla just had to do things their way and it caused a lot of issues for us. I don't think I really knew back then that it was likely a corporate culture expectation, but I certainly do now.

 

[Inkedsphynx]

I got to see the Model S sheet metal before the vehicle was officially revealed. I briefly worked on the paint system while a coworker was out sick and people from Tesla were visiting our plant to sign off on the equipment. He warned me how bad those guys were to do work for. He was right about them and it soured me on Tesla (beyond that I couldn't afford one back then anyway). Tesla just had to do things their way and it caused a lot of issues for us. I don't think I really knew back then that it was likely a corporate culture expectation, but I certainly do now.

For me the barrier to entry was affordability as well. If not for that I'm sure I'd have bought one, but I wasn't quite at that stage of life yet back then. In retrospect I'm really glad the R1T is my first EV. It's everything I expected and more and I sincerely doubt I'd have been as happy with any other available EV prior to it, based on my lifestyle, needs, and ethos.

 

[PeterSK]

For me the barrier to entry was affordability as well. If not for that I'm sure I'd have bought one, but I wasn't quite at that stage of life yet back then. In retrospect I'm really glad the R1T is my first EV. It's everything I expected and more and I sincerely doubt I'd have been as happy with any other available EV prior to it, based on my lifestyle, needs, and ethos.

Because I could afford it, it felt like I should buy an early Model S - even though it cost twice what I’d ever spent on a car previously, there was only one supercharger location between Boston and NYC, my most frequent road trip, and none in other directions. It was pretty clear to me that if the Model S were a success that would drive other manufacturers to go electric. While waiting for my car I did more research and bought some TSLA, though of course I wish I’d bought more - and sold it all a year ago!

That article made me nostalgic for my S85 (VIN in the 6000s) that I sold in 2016 when I got an even earlier Model X (VIN in the 600s) because kids had outgrown those rear-facing seats. And s00n I’ll replace the X with an R1S!

 

[PeterSK]

As our raffle ticket sales have continued to be challenged despite some pickup since we added the Rivians, I reached out to some reporters and got a response:

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-raffle-struggles-sell-tickets-due-to-elon-musk-actions-2023-1

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