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RIVN short interest % highest I’ve seen

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Q1 production and deliveries are released the first week of April. Should give a preview.
I see tons of Amazon vans all over. Carry over from Q4 production of R1 line for Q1 deliveries + ramping Production. Im a homer, no doubt, but I think the tides are changing.
 

nc10

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cleex024

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Q4 earnings call. Said by Claire, CFO
So what is the right play right now lol? I've dca from $26 and average cost is about $20.... im still down more than a new ioniq 5 lol.

I want to gamble some options... what you think? I want my ioniq 5 back lol
 

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DuoRivians

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So what is the right play right now lol? I've dca from $26 and average cost is about $20.... im still down more than a new ioniq 5 lol.

I want to gamble some options... what you think? I want my ioniq 5 back lol
If it were me, I wouldn’t buy options. I’d just buy stock. A stock is equivalent to a call option that never expires. There’s no way to know when Rivian will hit escape velocity, so hard to play that with options
 

cleex024

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If it were me, I wouldn’t buy options. I’d just buy stock. A stock is equivalent to a call option that never expires. There’s no way to know when Rivian will hit escape velocity, so hard to play that with options
Yeah I learned the hard way naked options are worse than blackjack... but hitting the lottery is fun sometimes lol. But I do think rivian is due for a good bounce here soon.

Maybe $40 calls for mid April? Hahaha
 

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Who thinks that the professional investors (the Bobby Axelrod's) are trawling these forums? Let me tell you, if you take your investment cue's from here, you're already 3 steps behind.

Short intertest.... it just means they'll need to buy that stock back at some point.

Stop day trading based on Google finance/Motely fool etc. You'll only lose.
 

MidnightRivian

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Who thinks that the professional investors (the Bobby Axelrod's) are trawling these forums? Let me tell you, if you take your investment cue's from here, you're already 3 steps behind.

Short intertest.... it just means they'll need to buy that stock back at some point.

Stop day trading based on Google finance/Motely fool etc. You'll only lose.

Any person who was short this stock has made out like a bandit. The daily volume to close out their shorts is plenty high to exit without causing a big rip in price. Short volume at 70% makes it stupid easy to exit.

Short interest is low at 12% and one can easily buy shares to close out their shorts without causing big rips.

Borrow fees are stupid low @ 0.4% and 10,000,000 shares available to retail. Imagine how many shares are available to institutions to borrow for shorting purposes or to close FTDs.

https://iborrowdesk.com/report/RIVN

https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-rivn/failure-to-deliver/

Average volume is 30 million and publicly reported shorts are at 69 million. It will take 2.5 days to cover their short position. Not a big deal at all to exit their position using call options.

IPO investors and retail investors are upside down. Shorts are doing just fine.

17% of investors are profitable at market close. That means 83% or 4 out of 5 investors are upside down on their trade.

I guarantee you shorts out there opened at $80 and closed at $50 to reposition and short again at $50 down to $40 and reposition. rinse and repeat. This is basic risk management 101.

They've already extracted profits at each level and hedged with new contracts.

You only lose when you invest in Rivian since their IPO.

The ones shorting since IPO are laughing all the way to the bank and have plenty of daily volume to close their shorts in 2.5 days.

All shorts are future buyers. Ya, but at much lower levels then when they shorted.

That's the whole point, short high and close low.

Not buy high and sell low or DCA your salary trying to bring down your average on a losing positions.

sunk-cost fallacy

LMFAO

fc*k feelings, make money.

Keep your emotions out of it

Don't get married to a stock.

I can keep going if you need more quotes.
 

MidnightRivian

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I don't know if you could short it now even if you wanted to short a $12 stock. It's listed as HTB and I imagine there's an interest burden to match the risk.
I didn't have the sense to short $RIVN at $130, I'm not going to start shorting at $13 … : )

Lets look at how hard it is to borrow Rivian stock and compare that to something like Lucid.

Shorting RIVN and finding RIVN stock is stupid easy compared to Lucid.

Rivian Short interest % of FLOAT is 18% and Lucid short interest % of float is 19.7%

Rivian borrow Fee: 0.4%, shares available: 10,000,000

LUCID borrow Fee: 13.8%, shares available: 80,000.

Lucid fees are 34 times higher and share availability is less than 1% of RIVN. While Short interest % of float is similar.

Shorting RIVN is cheap and hedging with OTM calls at $15 cost pennies.

Rivian R1T R1S RIVN short interest % highest I’ve seen Short Rivn.JPG
 

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the long way downunder

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Lets look at how hard it is to borrow Rivian stock and compare that to something like Lucid.

Shorting RIVN and finding RIVN stock is stupid easy compared to Lucid.

Rivian Short interest % of FLOAT is 18% and Lucid short interest % of float is 19.7%

Rivian borrow Fee: 0.4%, shares available: 10,000,000

LUCID borrow Fee: 13.8%, shares available: 80,000.

Lucid fees are 34 times higher and share availability is less than 1% of RIVN. While Short interest % of float is similar.

Shorting RIVN is cheap and hedging with OTM calls at $15 cost pennies.

Short Rivn.JPG
I don't trade on IB or use any of the handy dandy short interest sites. On tastytrade $RIVN is no longer HTB. I haven't been trading $RIVN since $35.

I like the idea of a short stock, long cheap call trade. I'll look at that when $RIVN is heading lower. Right now, $RIVN is dead in the water around $13.

If you look at the price behavior from $100 down to $10, the buying attempts did not recover the losses.
Rivian R1T R1S RIVN short interest % highest I’ve seen Screenshot 2023-03-26 at 3.07.52 PM


To "zoom in" from the $100 ceiling, to the $40 ceiling down to $10, the rally attempts from $25 to $35 in July and Sep were tradable, but didn't change the trend.
Rivian R1T R1S RIVN short interest % highest I’ve seen Screenshot 2023-03-26 at 3.08.58 PM

The last five buying attempts since Sept '21 all went sideways and the downtrend resumed.
$RIVN buyers started another attempt last week. I wish them well.

It's just gambling to have an opinion that $13 is the floor. I'm afraid the ceiling is $22 and there is no floor. The next chart could be "the ceiling can't hold us" if Rivian somehow has a stellar quarter, and buyers keep trying to start that multiplier rally.

What would it take for Rivian to get a standing O?

If Rivian sold over its 50K projection run rate, has something to show for the factory construction, starts delivering dual motor variants with more range, starts delivering the Max Pack … Max Pack will surely be a big headline splash ... maybe even opens the R2 for $1000 pre-orders if they dare risk asking for that referendum on their capacity to execute.

Rivian has so many ways it could revive confidence, which also goes to show so many ways it has failed expectations. Until the price action really changes sentiment, the rallies are worth $5 to the upside, the selloffs cost $10 or $15. From $13, that's an expected range of $18 to $5.

I'll just leave all this here and check in a few days whenever the next trend reversal – that'll be worth $5 to the downside – and we'll see if I was wrong about the upside or wrong about the downside. : )
 

HeyEllwood

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Put in $15k at IPO. Ran with it for a bit and sold as it started dropping off.
But thinking of selling TSLA and putting some back into Rivian. Hmm
 

cleex024

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I don't trade on IB or use any of the handy dandy short interest sites. On tastytrade $RIVN is no longer HTB. I haven't been trading $RIVN since $35.

I like the idea of a short stock, long cheap call trade. I'll look at that when $RIVN is heading lower. Right now, $RIVN is dead in the water around $13.

If you look at the price behavior from $100 down to $10, the buying attempts did not recover the losses.
Screenshot 2023-03-26 at 3.07.52 PM.png


To "zoom in" from the $100 ceiling, to the $40 ceiling down to $10, the rally attempts from $25 to $35 in July and Sep were tradable, but didn't change the trend.
Screenshot 2023-03-26 at 3.08.58 PM.png

The last five buying attempts since Sept '21 all went sideways and the downtrend resumed.
$RIVN buyers started another attempt last week. I wish them well.

It's just gambling to have an opinion that $13 is the floor. I'm afraid the ceiling is $22 and there is no floor. The next chart could be "the ceiling can't hold us" if Rivian somehow has a stellar quarter, and buyers keep trying to start that multiplier rally.

What would it take for Rivian to get a standing O?

If Rivian sold over its 50K projection run rate, has something to show for the factory construction, starts delivering dual motor variants with more range, starts delivering the Max Pack … Max Pack will surely be a big headline splash ... maybe even opens the R2 for $1000 pre-orders if they dare risk asking for that referendum on their capacity to execute.

Rivian has so many ways it could revive confidence, which also goes to show so many ways it has failed expectations. Until the price action really changes sentiment, the rallies are worth $5 to the upside, the selloffs cost $10 or $15. From $13, that's an expected range of $18 to $5.

I'll just leave all this here and check in a few days whenever the next trend reversal – that'll be worth $5 to the downside – and we'll see if I was wrong about the upside or wrong about the downside. : )
I dont think you understand much if you think there is no floor but there is a ceiling lol...floor is absolutely 0 doubt a stock is going below that 😆

I understand why you would say there is a ceiling and that number to you is 22 but who knows... bet you would have thought gamestop ceiling was also 22 or less but we know what happened there.

I highly doubt anyone in here is making millions day trading or just trading in general on this forum... and I don't mean having just 1 lucky ass year.

But it does seem like there are so many "professional" traders in all these car forums lol
 

SANZC02

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I look at it this way.

I bought at the IPO because that is when the money went to support Rivian, I purchased more since then to bring down my average cost. I’m playing with house money though. Rivian gifted me 20k by giving me the truck at the initial reservation price, so I’m using their money. I bought in with a 5 year plan, just letting the stock sit and not worrying about it for now. Since I had already set the cash aside in my toy fund when I made my reservation it really is just play money.

Who knows what will happen, when my 5 years is up in 2026 I either have some money in the stock or not. In the meantime, I’m really enjoying my R1S, it is exactly the vehicle I thought it would be.
 

the long way downunder

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I dont think you understand much if you think there is no floor but there is a ceiling lol...floor is absolutely 0 doubt a stock is going below that 😆

I understand why you would say there is a ceiling and that number to you is 22 but who knows... bet you would have thought gamestop ceiling was also 22 or less but we know what happened there.

I highly doubt anyone in here is making millions day trading or just trading in general on this forum... and I don't mean having just 1 lucky ass year.

But it does seem like there are so many "professional" traders in all these car forums lol
My post doesn't discuss whatever you're on about.
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