The Elephant in the Room [ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICAL DISCUSSION]

[rraj2k81]

Alberta has the highest climate change deniers per capita on planet earth. I participate in quite a few forums and locations online that deal with this. It's stunning how invested that province is in oil.

Even Texas has realized renewable energy is the future of energy investments.

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[rraj2k81]

I wholeheartedly agree. Rivian is the classic American start-up. It is exactly the kind of business that America needs. Rivian actually manufacturers a useful product that is made in the United States by well paid American workers. Any administration should be honored to support such an endeavor.

Brian

Any 'Sane' administration would, I agree.

 

[Jonger1150]

Even Texas has realized renewable energy is the future of energy investments.

Texas gives me hope with a Trump term.

Batteries + renewable = low cost power.

What the surrounding population thinks, versus what actual industry professionals know is encouraging.

 

[Sparkland]

I defer on the Model 2, thank you. Without tax credits, the R2 better come in at or around $50K or they will just sit on the lots. I hope the Scout does well, but I can see the pricing being pretty high at the beginning which will dissuade buyers who do not have $13K+ is incentives available to them.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

I defer on the Model 2, thank you. Without tax credits, the R2 better come in at or around $50K or they will just sit on the lots. I hope the Scout does well, but I can see the pricing being pretty high at the beginning which will dissuade buyers who do not have $13K+ is incentives available to them.

Did RJ not say they are targeting $45k starting price for R2 at Laguna Beach reveal? or did everyone who watched it hallucinate it together?

 

[evguy]

I'm holding my RIVN shares. The stock price is now back to where it was last Friday. Rivian might actually see a short term bump in R1 sales as people decide to pull the trigger on a purchase while the tax credits still exist. I don't think this election can change the long-term trajectory of EVs, which is still positive. The question remains the same: Can Rivian weather the next couple of years until R2/R3/more RCV sales take it to the next level? Signing up 2 or 3 more big RCV fleet customers in 2025 would be a nice boost.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Model 2 seems to be dead....?

Reuters Nov 5
Musk now says it's 'pointless' to build a $25,000 Tesla for human drivers

Very much dead. Unless cheaper batteries is a thing. But by then, autonomy might be advanced enough to make human drivers non-essential. New tech is rarely cheaper. Usually more expensive, then get cheaper as production scales up significantly. That takes years and years.

I'm holding my RIVN shares. The stock price is now back to where it was last Friday. Rivian might actually see a short term bump in R1 sales as people decide to pull the trigger on a purchase while the tax credits still exist. I don't think this election can change the long-term trajectory of EVs, which is still positive. The question remains the same: Can Rivian weather the next couple of years until R2/R3/more RCV sales take it to the next level? Signing up 2 or 3 more big RCV fleet customers in 2025 would be a nice boost.

Aside from increasing position, there's not much to RIVN until we get closer to R2 production/deliveries. In the meantime, it's a rocky road and at mercy of impressions, market mood swings and doubters.

 

[Milk]

A decent amount of his campaign was spent projecting the idea to tariff ALL imported goods at around 10-20%.

This would be an economic killer so I don't think it's likely to happen. Imagine paying essentially a national sales tax on Coffee (can't really grow that here), most of your avocados, and how many other products that just simply can't be made in America.

How many parts does Rivian, Ford, GM, etc import to use in assembly? Costs would skyrocket for everyone, so I can't see him actually doing this. Then again, he's not worried about re-election this time.

 

[Zoidz]

A decent amount of his campaign was spent projecting the idea to tariff ALL imported goods at around 10-20%.

This would be an economic killer so I don't think it's likely to happen. Imagine paying essentially a national sales tax on Coffee (can't really grow that here), most of your avocados, and how many other products that just simply can't be made in America.

How many parts does Rivian, Ford, GM, etc import to use in assembly? Costs would skyrocket for everyone, so I can't see him actually doing this. Then again, he's not worried about re-election this time.

I suppose it's possible to have a different tariff on "finished goods" as opposed to "parts"? If so, that could target imports of assembled EVs while not impacting US manufacturers supply chain.

It's going to be messy. I think it was mentioned previously - China is "nearshoring" - opening factories in Mexico to get around the tariffs. I saw a spot on TV (60 Minutes?) about this as well as other news outlets.

BBC
How Chinese firms are using Mexico as a backdoor to the US

The reclining armchairs and plush leather sofas coming off the production line at Man Wah Furniture's factory in Monterrey are 100% "Made in Mexico".

They're destined for large retailers in the US, like Costco and Walmart. But the company is from China, its Mexican manufacturing plant built with Chinese capital.

The triangular relationship between the US, China and Mexico is behind the buzzword in Mexican business: nearshoring.

Man Wah is one of scores of Chinese companies to relocate to industrial parks in northern Mexico in recent years, to bring production closer to the US market. As well as saving on shipping, their final product is considered completely Mexican - meaning Chinese firms can avoid the US tariffs and sanctions imposed on Chinese goods amid the continuing trade war between the two countries.

 

[RivianOwner2022]

What effect will the 2024 elections have on Rivian and RIVN? Musk and Tesla are both seeing renewed attention. I see RIVN is down quite a bit today. What say you? (Please try to stick to the effects this will have on the company and not vitriol.)

The rise of Trump and his incoming administration will certainly delay the evolution of mankind to cleaner methods of travel, but the evolution to EV's is inevitable as we continue to see clear evidence of climate change and as the ever dwindling petroleum costs increase. The rest of the world will continue to innovate. In retrospect, even as he has gone batshit on us, it may work out better that Elon has Trumps ear, as it is inevitable that his administration will have a low science IQ. Like him or not, Elon will be a science guru in Trumps administration. Better to have someone with science knowledge in there than not!

 

[emoore]

These are all great and well thought out arguments with facts. No of that matters with the new administration based off of last time. And this time will be even worse. Solar and Wind could be free and I bet some states will still try to ban it. Same goes with EVs. It pains me to say this but for the next 4 years the only hope for EV adoption is Musk.

 

[Milk]

I suppose it's possible to have a different tariff on "finished goods" as opposed to "parts"? If so, that could target imports of assembled EVs while not impacting US manufacturers supply chain.

It's going to be messy. I think it was mentioned previously - China is "nearshoring" - opening factories in Mexico to get around the tariffs. I saw a spot on TV (60 Minutes?) about this as well as other news outlets.

BBC
How Chinese firms are using Mexico as a backdoor to the US

The reclining armchairs and plush leather sofas coming off the production line at Man Wah Furniture's factory in Monterrey are 100% "Made in Mexico".

They're destined for large retailers in the US, like Costco and Walmart. But the company is from China, its Mexican manufacturing plant built with Chinese capital.

The triangular relationship between the US, China and Mexico is behind the buzzword in Mexican business: nearshoring.

Man Wah is one of scores of Chinese companies to relocate to industrial parks in northern Mexico in recent years, to bring production closer to the US market. As well as saving on shipping, their final product is considered completely Mexican - meaning Chinese firms can avoid the US tariffs and sanctions imposed on Chinese goods amid the continuing trade war between the two countries.

Yes I saw that same spot. Mexico has benefited quite a bit from the original Trump tariffs (which the Biden admin did nothing to loosen - tariffs almost never go away once implemented). Callaway now has almost all of their golf clubs assembled in Mexico which circumvents the tariffs.

The kicker will be if he's actually serious about ALL imports. Then it doesn't really matter where they are coming in from.

 

[SANZC02]

I defer on the Model 2, thank you. Without tax credits, the R2 better come in at or around $50K or they will just sit on the lots. I hope the Scout does well, but I can see the pricing being pretty high at the beginning which will dissuade buyers who do not have $13K+ is incentives available to them.

It is interesting that the average price for a new car in the US hit $47,542 in Q3 2024.

That is for all new cars not just EVs, so the gap is starting to shrink between ICE and EV vehicles. Even if the incentives goes away an EV can still be competitive, not like when they were selling for $25k plus above the average new car price.

 

[rraj2k81]

Did RJ not say they are targeting $45k starting price for R2 at Laguna Beach reveal? or did everyone who watched it hallucinate it together?

Yes he did. But, I am almost certain they will not hit that price. Considering right now, the cheapest Mach E is 40K and the cheapest Model Y is 45K. I don't see how in two years Rivian will be able to produce a 45K model.

Unless they pull an Elon Musk, where they introduce a short run, small battery - single motor variant just to say they produced it.

 

[SurfnBike]

I am going to take a contrarian position and postulate that EV sales will actually accelerate under the next president if for no other reason that Elon is going to be influential in the next administration.

For the record my R1S Gen2 did not qualify for the EV tax credit that everyone is discussing anyways, so it is a moot point (I did not lease).

For the last 8 years Tesla has been harassed, stonewalled, defamed, and sidelined by the U.S. government and corporate media. Tesla spearheaded EVs, is synonymous with EVs, literally creating the market that Rivian was able to IPO in and get $80/share and accumulate something like 18 billion in cash to even get the R1 off the ground.

Yet endless FUD has been spread about EVs and Tesla since day 1. Dealers hated Tesla and tried to block direct sales. Big Oil hated on Tesla and tried to pull the rug out from under them. Entrenched auto manufacturers tried to kill Tesla by running non-stop FUD articles through all of the media channels that they advertise on. Under Biden Elon was purposely not invited to the EV summit, and if you remember the Model Y originally wasn't included in the EV tax credit (which originally was written to be for labor-union only made vehicles).

Now that the largest EV producer in America finally has influence with the U.S. government I think they will finally get some fair if not preferential treatment and that will result in more electric vehicles on the road, and all EV manufacturers will benefit, including Rivian! I really hope that Rivian and others like Scout take off and give consumers compelling options in the future.

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