The Elephant in the Room [ADMIN WARNING: NO POLITICAL DISCUSSION]

[Rivianready]

You should make this a poll. For whatever those are worth?

My .02 cents is this is bad news for Rivian. Trump has made it pretty clear he intends to increase oil & gas production, cut the federal $7500 rebate, and has spoken ill about EV's "being pushed down people's throats" in the past. Frankly don't understand Musk's long-game since this will impact his fortune as well, but who knows. He's kind of a screwball already. What I'm personally annoyed with is that this will further embolden all the EV-hating "MAGA's" to further spam & troll EV communities sewing hate and division.

Frankly I'm concerned about us falling further behind China (and the rest of the world), the impact on the environment, and this being the potential downfall of Rivian as a company. On the left however, this may push all the people who already own Teslas and were considering another to now all "jump ship" to Rivian. ?

Personally I was hoping "Giant Meteor" would win, but guess we'll see one way or another in 10 years. ?????

I’ve been recharging a fair amount at Tesla Supercharging stations lately and have made a point of talking to Tesla owners. Many approach me to ask how I like my R1S. A lot of them have said they are considering a Rivian for the extra space and some have said they are not a fan of Elon. When cost comes up, however, some say “I can’t afford that.” I tell them about the R2 and its price point. They generally say that they will strongly consider that. The R2 can’t come fast enough for Rivian. It has the potential to be a big hit, especially with current EV owners.

Sponsored

 

[R1TS]

I’ve been recharging a fair amount at Tesla Supercharging stations lately and have made a point of talking to Tesla owners. Many approach me to ask how I like my R1S. A lot of them have said they are considering a Rivian for the extra space and some have said they are not a fan of Elon. When cost comes up, however, some say “I can’t afford that.” I tell them about the R2 and its price point. They generally say that they will strongly consider that. The R2 can’t come fast enough for Rivian. It has the potential to be a big hit, especially with current EV owners.

The R2 needed to come out two years ago, not two years from now. And, it will be even more expensive than expected when it comes out with EV credits likely to go away now.

 

[Newtonrj]

The Detroit Free Press posted an article discussing how the EV industry could be affected. Being an American company producing vehicles in the US doesn't matter if you are aligned against the product being produced.

"It seems likely Trump will take aim at emissions standards, tax credits and other regulations that Republicans feel unfairly prioritized EV sales and production. Will federal and state subsidies for EVs continue under a Trump presidency? It's hard to say -- in Michigan, conservatives have both supported and opposed using tax dollars to create auto jobs.

A plant north of Big Rapids could be the face of any Trump administration changes on EVs. The Gotion, Inc. facility promises to create hundreds of jobs and invest billions in the community and economy. But it proved to be a lightning rod during the campaign, as conservatives both attacked incentives for the EV battery plant and the company's ties to China. There's a real chance a Trump administration tries to torpedo the project. But could voters see that as opposing creating new Michigan jobs? Time will tell."

It is not just Gotion in Michigan. There is a similar problem with a proposed (and currently approved) Gotion plant in Manteno, IL
Gotion Plant, Manteno

 

[Zoidz]

At the federal level, no. At the state level, yes.

California Mandates Electric Cars for 2035 and Here's What That Means | Edmunds

Agree, but the discussion here has been about Trump's statement that he will get rid of EV mandates, which he can only do at the Federal Level. As far as I know, he cannot force California to change their mandate.

Interestingly, even the California mandate is not technically an EV mandate - it calls for "Zero Emission". Practically, EVs are the only wide spread consumer solution today, but it could be hydrogen power, if that tech were to gain traction. Unlikely...

At any rate, IMO California will be moving the goal post on the 2035 deadline on their own.

 

[ohseedee]

The EV tax credit is not going anywhere. It has been threatened too many times to count since the Bush administration put it into place nearly twenty years ago, but it has always stayed intact or expanded. Nothing will happen.

The one thing that almost certainly WILL happen is that the IRS determination that leases are commercial sales (and hence eligible for the $7500 even if they are a foreign manufacturer) will be reversed. this does not require Congressional action and many in Congress that supported the IRA thought Biden had done an inappropriate sleight of hand with this anyway.


EV stocks not named TSLA getting pounded this morning. However, I do not think this is indicative of anything aside from unsophisticated day-traders jumping on a notional trend. The fundamentals of Tesla have not improved as a result of the election (in fact they have degraded).

I'm not a day-trader but my assumption is Tesla is up and others are down because Tesla is the only EV company that can be profitable without the EV tax credit. Rivian and others are already selling their vehicles at a big loss. If the credits go away, they will be forced to either lower prices (bigger loss) or reduce units sold which means it's going to be very hard to hit the scale they need to hit to become profitable. Most traditional auto makers are cutting back on EV investments. So, from my perspective Tesla is in a great position to retake market share if the tax credits disappear.

 

[Dark-Fx]

At the federal level, no. At the state level, yes.

California Mandates Electric Cars for 2035 and Here's What That Means | Edmunds

Nope. ZEV doesn't have to mean EV.

It could include ICE vehicles designed to produce zero harmful emissions, vehicles with compressed-air engines, etc.

 

[ohseedee]

vehicles with compressed-air engines

Sweet! Send me a link to one of those please as it sounds cool and would love to pick one up before 2035

 

[Dark-Fx]

Sweet! Send me a link to one of those please as it sounds cool and would love to pick one up before 2035

Tata motors was supposed to bring theirs to market by 2020.

 

[SANZC02]

The R2 needed to come out two years ago, not two years from now. And, it will be even more expensive than expected when it comes out with EV credits likely to go away now.

Technically if it comes out early 2026 it is not far off.

January 2026 is 14 months from now.

 

[Florida Panhandler]

The upcoming Scout has seen great interest from traditional 4x4guys in its hybrid range extender promise. It may come down to playing ball with the upcoming administration that Rivian promises a range extender model to appease Trump’s supporters and still be able to obtain necessary Federal funding- Rivian can realize the funds and Trump can deliver an ICE -extended deliver on his own campaign promises concerning ICE. The closest thing to a win-win IMO.

the best way to do this is go ahead and strengthen the VW deal by basing the architecture on VW’s Scout range extended platform. It might even necessitate a formal partnership and eventual buyout.

 

[Newtonrj]

You should at least look at facts before you post such nonsense. It's true that not all of the US oil production is used or refined in the US. However, an overwhelming majority is; i.e. 85-90% of it is refined in the US.

It should also be noted that the largest source of the energy, for generating electricity, is coming from natural gas. For the most part, my 2 Rivians are both powered by natural gas.

Here is a helpful source of energy generation and consumption. This is a national pic but it is also available by state and other nations.

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/sites/flowcharts/files/2024-10/energy-2023-united-states.png

 

[Treebeard]

What effect will the 2024 elections have on Rivian and RIVN? Musk and Tesla are both seeing renewed attention. I see RIVN is down quite a bit today. What say you? (Please try to stick to the effects this will have on the company and not vitriol.)

Trump also carries on about ending the new green deal, which is financing big business in his southern states. Do you think those states will let the funding go that is providing jobs and growth?

 

[emoore]

Trump also carries on about ending the new green deal, which is financing big business in his southern states. Do you think those states will let the funding go that is providing jobs and growth?

Honestly I think anything goes. If the oil and gas companies have Trump's ear and say to stop funding EV or renewable energy companies he will try to make it happen. To hell with any new jobs.

 

[beaker]

At the federal level, no. At the state level, yes.

California Mandates Electric Cars for 2035 and Here's What That Means | Edmunds

So are you saying that Trump will magically end a state level mandate that comes into force long after he's gone?

 

[beaker]

Meh. Everything is up today. The "Tesla up, everything down" narrative is so yesterday.

I do think Tesla is in a much better gross margin position than any of the other pure plays (by a mile). OTOH, Tesla is already ridiculously valued at 100x Rivian, which in turn is ridiculously valued at 1/4th of Ford. Personally, I think it is just day traders doing dumb day trader things.

It all reminds me of another stock I have been watching (and have shorted): Trump Media (symbol DJT). It is a terrible, money losing, poorly run, low engagement, pseudo social media company that owns Truth Social. It sailed up in value just before and (especially) after the election. Today it is down 23% because some folks woke up this morning and realized that it actually is still a terrible, money losing, poorly run, low engagement, pseudo social media company and those facts do not change just because its namesake won an election. I expect Tesla to re-value at around $150 - $300 Billion mkt cap over the coming few years. YMMV

I expect that Musk will acquire the rotting corpse of Truth Social fold it into the rotting corpse of twitter.

Sponsored