To Lease or Not to Lease the Current R1S Quad Motor - Your Inputs Needed!

[sirna7]

Hi Rivian Community,

I'm reaching out for your expertise as my family and I are on the fence about leasing a new R1S Quad Motor. We're expecting our second child in August, and with a large Goldendoodle, we need a spacious 3-row SUV. I've just started looking into this about a week ago and am now seeking advice from those with more experience. Here are our considerations:

For Leasing the R1S Quad Motor Now:

1. Lease Price: The lease price for the Quad Motor R1S seems quite lucrative and the most affordable option we've found. My question is, is this the best it has gotten? What does historical data say, and what are the predictions? How long do you think this attractive pricing will last? I heard Investor Day is on June 27, any insights on potential changes post that event?
2. Immediate Enjoyment: Leasing now allows us to enjoy this incredible vehicle right away. However, we currently have the vehicles we need and don't exactly need a 3-row SUV right now yet.

Against Leasing Now and Waiting Until End of the Year:

1. Timing: We're not in a rush since our daughter is due soon. Is there a possibility of a better deal by the end of the year, perhaps in Q4? I'm aware of the R1 refresh on the horizon, but current data suggests it's primarily for production efficiency and cost-cutting. Do you think there will be significant changes that would make a big difference over a 3-year lease? We're likely returning the vehicle after the lease ends rather than buying it, so we're not necessarily looking for the latest and greatest.
2. Short-Term Savings: Waiting would save us 3-6 months of lease payments, which is beneficial in the short term. Additionally, if we wait, we won't be able to utilize or explore the vehicle right now, and we might be busier down the line with our second kiddo.

Thanks in advance for your input and experiences!

Andy

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[Count Orlok]

IMHO leasing is best if you have a business use.

by "most affordable" do you mean lowest payment? IMHO you should never be a "payment" buyer. I buy vehicles based on the sales price. Grain of salt, however, as I have never leased as it was never in my long-term interest as I don't cycle through vehicles quickly.

a lot of clickbaiters are making money speculating about the refresh. Refreshes thus far have been downgrades IMHO (Frunk outlet).

have you done a test drive? If not, doing so may be helpful to see if it fits your lifestyle.

good luck.,

 

[COdogman]

Lease now so that when your daughter is born she has been fully infused in vitro with the enjoyment pheremones and will be guaranteed to have a happy life full of 0-60 launches and ventilated seats.

 

[sirna7]

Thank you,

IMHO leasing is best if you have a business use.

by "most affordable" do you mean lowest payment? IMHO you should never be a "payment" buyer. I buy vehicles based on the sales price. Grain of salt, however, as I have never leased as it was never in my long-term interest as I don't cycle through vehicles quickly.

a lot of clickbaiters are making money speculating about the refresh. Refreshes thus far have been downgrades IMHO (Frunk outlet).

have you done a test drive? If not, doing so may be helpful to see if it fits your lifestyle.

good luck.,

Hey, thanks for your input!

I agree with your points. My worst outcome is that in the next 4-8 months, the current lease deal might disappear if the R1S Quad Motor inventory is depleted and the factory starts producing the refresh models. Then we'd be stuck with a lease deal that is more costly with so-so improvements or decreased quality due to known cost-cutting strategies.

How did we get here? We started looking into the R1S because our parents need a new car, and we plan to give them our 2020 Mercedes GLE. This gives us an excuse to get a 3-row SUV and switch to fully electric (our other car is a 2021 TMY). We'd embrace going fully electric!

The best outcome would be if the refresh hits the mark or if the current R1S Quad Motor becomes even more discounted with the new model release. Waiting could save us a few months of payments, and both our current cars are paid off. We plan to commit to buying in 2027 after more tech development, so leasing later would give us more time to find the right vehicle to buy (like a new refresh in Q3/Q4 of 2027).

Personally, I love the current looks and specs and don’t care for self-driving features. The only thing that matters with the refresh is if it has a stronger internal computing processor, as Rivian is starting to integrate streaming services. For example, they just announced YouTube streaming today below:

 

[sirna7]

Lease now so that when your daughter is born she has been fully infused in vitro with the enjoyment pheremones and will be guaranteed to have a happy life full of 0-60 launches and ventilated seats.

Haha, that is a valid point.

 

[SSpearsAU]

I am in a similar predicament of leasing now versus later because it does seem the lease deals are currently pretty strong. That said, at the end of the quarter is when Rivian seems to push most of their deals, which I am sure if them trying to make up for weaker than expected sales volume.

Based on a post on this site, end of Q1, the Quad R1S lease payments were running (on a Gross Capitalized cost of $94,050):

24 month, 20k miles was $847 (79.7% implied residual)
24 mo, 24k miles was $847 (79.7% implied residual)
36 mo, 20k miles was $840 (74% implied residual)
36 mo, 24k miles was $869 (72.9% implied residual)
36 mo, 36k miles was $926 (70.9% implied residual)

Today, a vehicle with a Gross Capitalized cost= $94,000 is:

24 month, 20k miles is $954
24 mo, 24k miles is $992
36 mo, 30k miles is $897
36 mo, 36k miles is $923
36 mo, 45k miles is $948

I am looking at the two-year lease with 10,000, and it just stinks that the price on that is now $107/month higher than it was 45 days ago.

Any thoughts on whether or not there will be a similar push end of Q2?

 

[Electrified Outdoors]

Flip a coin? ?

 

[pricedm]

Now-- lease credits reduce price approx. $5k on 2023 models. Line-item from a recent MVPA.

 

[SSpearsAU]

All figures above are for 2024 model year R1S. I have not seen any recent inventory from 2023 for R1S.

 

[sirna7]

I am in a similar predicament of leasing now versus later because it does seem the lease deals are currently pretty strong. That said, at the end of the quarter is when Rivian seems to push most of their deals, which I am sure if them trying to make up for weaker than expected sales volume.

Based on a post on this site, end of Q1, the Quad R1S lease payments were running (on a Gross Capitalized cost of $94,050):

24 month, 20k miles was $847 (79.7% implied residual)
24 mo, 24k miles was $847 (79.7% implied residual)
36 mo, 20k miles was $840 (74% implied residual)
36 mo, 24k miles was $869 (72.9% implied residual)
36 mo, 36k miles was $926 (70.9% implied residual)

Today, a vehicle with a Gross Capitalized cost= $94,000 is:

24 month, 20k miles is $954
24 mo, 24k miles is $992
36 mo, 30k miles is $897
36 mo, 36k miles is $923
36 mo, 45k miles is $948

I am looking at the two-year lease with 10,000, and it just stinks that the price on that is now $107/month higher than it was 45 days ago.

Any thoughts on whether or not there will be a similar push end of Q2?

Interesting! Thanks for this useful data. It appears the largest increase is at 24 months while the 36-month option remains steady and even decreased! Ka-ching from $926 to $923 monthly (36 mo, 36k mile). Is this assumed $0 down except for the $1k deposit?

 

[sirna7]

Also, has anyone leased and halfway through your delivery date, a new deal pops up for your configuration? Would they honor it?

 

[SSpearsAU]

Interesting! Thanks for this useful data. It appears the largest increase is at 24 months while the 36-month option remains steady and even decreased! Ka-ching from $926 to $923 monthly (36 mo, 36k mile). Is this assumed $0 down except for the $1k deposit?

Yes, this assumes just the $1,000 down.

 

[Rizzian]

LEASE!!!!!
I know that some will say that Over-the-Air updates will keep these vehicles up to date and on the road indefinitely, but there are limitations to what software can do. Since EV HARDWARE (batteries, cameras, sensors, CPUs) is still under development and advancing exponentially, I wouldn't buy or finance an EV outright unless It was for a business or I had the cash in hand.
This technology is advancing so quickly- do you really want to spend 5-6 years paying off an R1S? By the time you have made your last payment will be 2030 and you will finally own a first-generation, degraded, archaic SUV that was first unveiled in 2018.

Did you own a laptop in 2012? Was it the top-of-the-line Macbook Pro running Mountain Lion or maybe a Windows 8 machine? How's that old laptop doing for you today, even with all those free OS and firmware updates? You've probably replaced it. If you're really into technology or demanding about performance, you've probably gone through two or three new laptops since then.

If you like the latest technology and performance - lease and get the newest/best technology available every 2-3 years. There's no point in owning something that can only depreciate unless you're on a fixed income and/or don't care about cars beyond getting from point A to B.

 

[Count Orlok]

LEASE!!!!!


If you like the latest technology and performance - lease and get the newest/best technology available every 2-3 years. There's no point in owning something that can only depreciate unless you're on a fixed income and/or don't care about cars beyond getting from point A to B.

or a third possibility on why someone might not want to lease absent the biz tax incentive... perhaps one doesn't like renting, doesn't need the latest ticktocker tech every 6 months, and depreciation is merely a cost of enjoying the ride? By your logic I should be trading in my 2022 R1S for the mysterious refresh 2024/5? no thanks.

 

[cdcsf]

Also, has anyone leased and halfway through your delivery date, a new deal pops up for your configuration? Would they honor it?

I placed an order for a 2023 R1T that was available in the shop and was assigned a pickup date about 5 weeks out. 3 days later a new promotion was announced (reduced pricing on Large pack and $0 powered tonneau cover). They initially updated my pricing but the estimated monthly lease did not come down as much as I expected. After much back and forth and a couple of weeks, Rivian finally added in the 2023 Lease Promotion amount ($4500) to my deal. I'm in NorCal so no more guides, but the SSF delivery center guy was as helpful as he could be. I ended up placing a 2nd order which finally showed him the reduced pricing as well as the lease promotion; he used this info to get the Rivian Finance Team to update my deal appropriately (he promised to refund one of the $1k deposits I placed).

So, in short, Rivian should/will honor the most current deals. The service center guy said it was taking a long time to get a response since the Finance Team had to go through all the orders pending delivery to update their terms, and they prioritized by delivery date.

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