"day one" of "not a good day" for $RIVN

[Dark-Fx]

sheesh, you think it's that bad? Black Monday bad?

It's going to be a long slide for Rivian. Market being down means there are going to be a lot of cancellations from people who decided it's "safer" to stick with their current vehicle than to spend 70-90k on an unproven manufacturer.

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[kurtlikevonnegut]

It's going to be a long slide for Rivian. Market being down means there are going to be a lot of cancellations from people who decided it's "safer" to stick with their current vehicle than to spend 70-90k on an unproven manufacturer.

Well hopefully enough of them will cancel to push my R1S into '22

 

[Scoiatael]

I bought some puts on Rivian and will likely sell them if Rivian dips below $50 and use that to buy more stock.

 

[888tom888]

Markets being down are tremendous buying opportunities. I missed out on the offer to Rivian owners from the company and was really upset with myself. But now that its being beaten down, I"m all in buying. As long as you believe in the company and the money behind it, these days are great buying opportunities. Tesla was beaten up a bunch of times before it took off. This is just the normal growth for a company that has fallen out of favor with Wall Street at the moment. I hope it keeps tanking. Rivian has billions in cash.

 

[cardad]

Markets being down are tremendous buying opportunities. I missed out on the offer to Rivian owners from the company and was really upset with myself. But now that its being beaten down, I"m all in buying. As long as you believe in the company and the money behind it, these days are great buying opportunities. Tesla was beaten up a bunch of times before it took off. This is just the normal growth for a company that has fallen out of favor with Wall Street at the moment. I hope it keeps tanking. Rivian has billions in cash.

You may want to learn more about the burn rate for a company like Rivian. “Billions” or in their case I believe it’s about $7-10 B isn’t enough for more than a year or two of extremely high capex burn. That means same time next year they will need another raise. As it is their gross margins could even be negative. Like how can they sell a vehicle with 135 kwh battery for $75k?? Tesla sells their 100 kwh SUV for $105k and they already have scale and vertical integration.

Ford (and Tesla) at least have opted for a mid-market price level and their reservation numbers dwarf that of Rivian. They need to scale fast to produce mid-market vehicles and that will result in seriously ugly negative cashflow for the next few years.

 

[SeaGeo]

You may want to learn more about the burn rate for a company like Rivian. “Billions” or in their case I believe it’s about $7-10 B isn’t enough for more than a year or two of extremely high capex burn. That means same time next year they will need another raise. As it is their gross margins could even be negative. Like how can they sell a vehicle with 135 kwh battery for $75k?? Tesla sells their 100 kwh SUV for $105k and they already have scale and vertical integration.

Ford (and Tesla) at least have opted for a mid-market price level and their reservation numbers dwarf that of Rivian. They need to scale fast to produce mid-market vehicles and that will result in seriously ugly negative cashflow for the next few years.

Ford sells a 98 kwh truck for 40k. And a 131 kwh truck with a lower entry point than the R1T.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

You may want to learn more about the burn rate for a company like Rivian. “Billions” or in their case I believe it’s about $7-10 B isn’t enough for more than a year or two of extremely high capex burn. That means same time next year they will need another raise. As it is their gross margins could even be negative.

The burn rate for the last 5 fiscal quarters is now public, they reportedly had $19b in cash reserves after IPO, and even if gross margins are negative initially they will still be bringing in revenue to offset burn. They had been very open about the fact that they do not expect to be profitable for a while.

 

[NashvilleR1S]

Ford sells a 98 kwh truck for 40k. And a 131 kwh truck with a lower entry point than the R1T.

Please let us all know what year you can get either of those without a massive markup.

 

[SeaGeo]

Please let us all know what year you can get either of those without a massive markup.

My reservation is this year without a markup.

 

[the long way downunder]

You may want to learn more about the burn rate for a company like Rivian. “Billions” or in their case I believe it’s about $7-10 B isn’t enough for more than a year or two of extremely high capex burn. That means same time next year they will need another raise. As it is their gross margins could even be negative. Like how can they sell a vehicle with 135 kwh battery for $75k?? Tesla sells their 100 kwh SUV for $105k and they already have scale and vertical integration.

Ford (and Tesla) at least have opted for a mid-market price level and their reservation numbers dwarf that of Rivian. They need to scale fast to produce mid-market vehicles and that will result in seriously ugly negative cashflow for the next few years.

The VCs, Bezos and Ford know how to plan a 10+ year startup.
Tesla has already demonstrated how to execute an automaker startup and scale to 900,000+ units.
Rivian has no shortage of funding and the major investors do not have unrealistic expectations for an EV startup to turn a profit.
fwiw, the battery is only getting cheaper and it's just one component cost. Tesla indicated the battery can be sourced from CATL or other OEMs – it's not as important as all that.

 

[NashvilleR1S]

My reservation is this year without a markup.

You've spoken with your dealer and they aren't marking it up at all?

 

[SeaGeo]

You've spoken with your dealer and they aren't marking it up at all?

Yes

 

[the long way downunder]

Damn the torpedoes.
Just bought another 100 at $58
Can't say I'm overjoyed, just chipping away at my cost basis, also selling puts and rolling.
I'm still less than 10% of my position size, so, early days, but so far, not good trading for me.

 

[moosehead]

^Kinda doing the same TLWD, what do you think of FB @$224 or so?

 

[the long way downunder]

^Kinda doing the same TLWD, what do you think of FB @$224 or so?

TLWD?
Funny you mention $FB – I guess everybody and their dog is sniff at $FB. It's $222 as I type. That's a rewind to June. Six months looks dramatic because of the rapid buying in the second half of '21. People are idiots. : )
Now, it looks like dogsheet and I wouldn't pick it up. I'll prefer to buy at $250 on the way up than $220 on the way down or perhaps sell far OTM puts in March and exploit the IV.
The statistical methods I use require time to re-sample after the underlying price moves beyond normal range.
There's also the complexity of the news that Facebook has potentially significant business problems.
There's a hundred "analysts" out there pontificating. There's a dozen stocks I'd rather buy (Google, Microsoft, even Amazon at all time crazy prices is probably a stronger candidate) than gamble on Facebook regaining investor confidence while trying to recover from a helluva bad quarter.
anyway, I shouldn't stray so far off-topic … : )

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