If they convert even 30% of those preorders I'll be surprised. The preorders are $100 throwaway for the promise of a $39,000 truck that can go 500 miles. We all know that's never going to happen, and when they announce real specs and pricing it's going to likely cut that number in half. Based on the Lightning Pro now starting at $55,000, I expect the entry level dual motor CT to start at $60,000 with a range of 250 miles, going up to $140,000 or so for quad motor plaid.I know many are still skeptical regarding CT ever being produced, but it's real and it's closer to production as a lot has happened lately..
-The 9,000 ton Idra Giga Press that's needed for the huge CT body casting has finally been delivered to the Port of Houston from Italy via ship in late Sept.
-The concrete floor in Giga-Texas has been broken up, the huge footings and pad for the Giga Press have been poured and cured.
-Just 2-3 weeks ago the disassembled press (54 pieces weighing a total of 171,000 lbs) shipping containers were delivered by trucks to the Austin Gigafactory site and are currently being re-assembled (estimated by Idra to take about one month to complete) in the GT plant starting last week.
-Once assembled, it has to be tested and validated (estimates are that will take about a month after final assemble of the press is completed).
There's still the issue of the new 4680 battery cells (they can produce in small volume, but when they started big volume production, Tesla ended up with too many rejects) but if Tesla can scale 4680 cell production many think CT production could start mid 2023.
Tesla did not invest over a billion dollars in the Austin Gigafactory just to make Model Y's and Semi's. They have over 1.5 million CT reservations at this point, and Tesla intends to cash in on that!