Ford (et al) versus Rivian 2022 deliveries & production numbers: no small accomplishment

[NineElectrics]

Rivian has a run rate of >50k running only two lines and (just recently) two shifts. Now that EDV production has kicked off and the second line is fully up, I expect to see the run rate to go up to at least 75k this quarter.

Regardless, the point of the OP stands: For Rivian to be in the same ballpark as Ford a year into production is an impressive achievement, no matter how you look at it. And if you had predicted this a year ago you would have been ridiculed by most people.

Analysts are predicting only 50K vehicles from Rivian in 2023, including EDV. Probably short on batteries still. Given Q4 run rate was 40K I believe 50K is achievable.

BTW, Rivian is not a year into production, it’s two and a half years. The original target was 2020 and I placed a deposit four years ago. Rivian announced their truck in 2018 and the Lightning was unveiled in 2021.

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[VSG]

Analysts are predicting only 50K vehicles from Rivian in 2023, including EDV. Probably short on batteries still. Given Q4 run rate was 40K I believe 50K is achievable.

"Analysts" don't know shit about Rivian's production estimate for 2023, and won't know until Rivian announces it at the earnings call. This was true last year as well - "analysts" were predicting 50k, and when Rivian affirmed their goal (which was written in the S-1) of 25k, the stock tanked because it wasn't in-line with what the "analysts" mistakenly thought.

Regardless, "run rate" is TOTALLY DIFFERENT than a yearly production number. Which I assumed you knew, because you quoted Ford's "run rate". Rivian demonstrated a run rate of >50k in Q3, but they were supply-constrained and didn't have the parts to maintain that. They were working only 1 shift of 30 hours/week at the time, because they didn't have enough parts to assemble. But when they did run, they ramped the line to run faster than they had parts for, because it takes time to develop that higher production rate and they wanted to be ready for when the parts were no longer a constraint.

In December, however, they DID have the parts, were running two shifts, and ran at >50k for an extended period of time.

Extrapolating to a "run rate" of 75k after adding a third shift is just simple math: 3 shifts instead of 2 means 75k instead of 50k, even with no improvements on the line. OF COURSE supply will always be a problem, but it is clear that Rivian has overcome a lot of the supply issues in the past quarter. A run rate of 75k doesn't mean they will produce 75k/4 vehicles this quarter, it just means they can demonstrate that the line can run that fast as long as it has parts coming in, and additionally demonstrate that by keeping the line running that fast and shutting it down if they run out of parts. That's what they did before - ramp up line speed first and keep it there so when the parts come in you can actually run at the high rate and not just START to TRY to go faster.

BTW, Rivian is not a year into production, it’s two and a half years. The original target was 2020 and I placed a deposit four years ago. Rivian announced their truck in 2018 and the Lightning was unveiled in 2021.

This is all nonsense. Rivian shipped its first vehicles to employees in September 2021, and shipped only 1,015 vehicles in 2021, substantially ALL to employees. First bulk shipments to customers was March 2022. And Rivian was shutdown in early 2022, so 2022 wasn't even a full year of production. Ford got started shipping the Lightning in April 2022, and everyone took it for granted that Ford would crush Rivian in 2022 because of their 100 year history of manufacturing and because the Lightning shared so many components with their best-selling ICE F-150.

Ford's excuse for the low production in 2022 is that they have a reputation to maintain and that they only have one chance to get it right so they're taking it slowly. Which is marketing speak for "we're having problems ramping up as fast as we said we would".

By your measure, the Cybertruck entered production more than three years ago in 2019.
If you really want to look at it that way, then the score is:
Cybertruck = 0, Rivian = 25,000
and again, a super impressive achievement from Rivian that you would have been ridiculed for predicting back in 2019. People were writing Rivian off as a has-been after the Cybertruck announcement because they had just been stomped on by the 800 lb Gorilla that Tesla embodied.

VW sold 20K ID.4s in the US in 2022, but probably double that in Europe and also double that China. So roughly 100K worldwide for 2022. It’s produced in five factories across three continents.

I don't know what point you're trying to make here. VW, a massive global company, had FIVE factories running and producing ID.4, yet it still only managed to make ~20k per factory?

You're making my point for me - Rivian achieved a tremendous amount in this first year of production, and rivaled the capabilities of established manufacturers.