With Rivian's Wall St. Wreck in Rear View, I'd Take a Test Drive -- [RealMoney]

[R1S88]

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/rivn-16116508

bull case for RIVN:
"Long-term investors can choose to speculate on RIVN, clear-eyed of the challenges that must be addressed on its ramp to profitability. Much of Rivian's value today is derived by discounting back from the 2030 potential unit volumes in the 700-thousand to 900-thousand vehicle range."

also references the Barclay's research piece:
"Barclays' positive case rests on viewing Rivian as a best-of-breed opportunity on two key automotive megatrends: electrification and the software-defined vehicle. RIVN thus far has established key moats in product and technology. RIVN's clean-sheet architecture and unique product offering make it well-positioned to capture a solid share of the North American EV market; Barclays estimates Rivian will have around an 8% share of domestic EVs by 2030. Moreover, RIVN's ownership of key technologies can help to distinguish its products further. These technologies include features such as in-house software systems, vehicle electronics, and full ownership of the powertrain (battery pack and drive units/motors).

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[Madsen203]

And shares are down 5% today. The whole sector is but still notable.

 

[CharonPDX]

My EV stocks are atrocious this last year. I managed to sell Tesla right at their peak (within 1% of it, anyway,) but reinvested in other EV stocks that are all down even more.

Averages of my holdings:
Arcimoto down 95%
ElectraMeccanica down 85%
Rivian down 81%

At least I sold Tesla when it was up 1100% over what I bought it for.

 

[iansriv]

I was intrigued by Tesla from the beginning and wanted to buy stock when they went public. Can't remember exactly but I think the price was around $25. After much ridicule about "electric cars" I didn't buy. Later when the price was around $65 I bought some. Unfortunately, I sold at $300 before all the splits. After that, people started giving me a lot of respect. That was short lived because, I bought Rivian at $160. I'm trying to water my shame down with "dollar cost averaging" but there's only so much you can do. People are back to making fun of me. Such is life.

 

[JohnB R1T]

People are back to making fun of me. Such is life.

They can't mock what they don't know. Just keep it between you & your broker.

 

[iansriv]

They can't mock what they don't know. Just keep it between you & your broker.

I am joking. Just my friends.

 

[Tahoe Man]

I was intrigued by Tesla from the beginning and wanted to buy stock when they went public. Can't remember exactly but I think the price was around $25. After much ridicule about "electric cars" I didn't buy. Later when the price was around $65 I bought some. Unfortunately, I sold at $300 before all the splits. After that, people started giving me a lot of respect. That was short lived because, I bought Rivian at $160. I'm trying to water my shame down with "dollar cost averaging" but there's only so much you can do. People are back to making fun of me. Such is life.

Same, I remember seeing the ticker scroll across my screen and thought I might buy, around 2012.

I was hoping RIVN would breakout above $20 but no dice. I bought very little at mid 20's and a little also at $19. More for a swing trade then anything, I just don't see how Rivian survives once the big boys get fully implanted into EVs.

 

[MXA121]

....
I just don't see how Rivian survives once the big boys get fully implanted into EVs.

In my view, if Land Rover can survive then Rivian should have no problem. LR sold around 60k vehicles in the US last year and are consistently ranked low in reliability, plus they are higher cost. What "big boys" are going to make a more compelling product than the R1T and R1S at $80k? I see nothing in the forecast.

 

[zipzag]

In my view, if Land Rover can survive then Rivian should have no problem. LR sold around 60k vehicles in the US last year and are consistently ranked low in reliability, plus they are higher cost. What "big boys" are going to make a more compelling product than the R1T and R1S at $80k? I see nothing in the forecast.

Will Land Rover/Jaguar survive electrification? Land Rover's parent company is usually unprofitable.

What is fundamental to Rivian that allows them to include more expensive features than their competitors?

Rivian can't ramp production because they can't successfully compete with their larger competitors for parts from supplies. Ford has repeatedly announced increase in production goals for both the Lightning and the Mach E. Rivian doesn't have the supplier relationships to get even the baseline of parts.

Tesla's feature is not including a lot of physical features and selling high margin vehicles.

Perhaps Barclay forecasts the supply chain substantially improving.

 

[MXA121]

Will Land Rover/Jaguar survive electrification? Land Rover's parent company is usually unprofitable.

What is fundamental to Rivian that allows them to include more expensive features than their competitors?

Rivian can't ramp production because they can't successfully compete with their larger competitors for parts from supplies. Ford has repeatedly announced increase in production goals for both the Lightning and the Mach E. Rivian doesn't have the supplier relationships to get even the baseline of parts.

Tesla's feature is not including a lot of physical features and selling high margin vehicles.

Perhaps Barclay forecasts the supply chain substantially improving.

I'm not sure if JLR will survive electrification, though I'm also not sure how they made it this far.

You say Rivian can't ramp...So going from 1k to 24k to 50k units/yr in 3 years is not already "ramping production"? Seems to me they are off to a great start.

If the big players like Ford had the necessary supplier contracts, then why didn't they build more Lightning pickups last year? They are struggling to keep their line turned on as we speak. Much of the constrained supply for EVs is unique to the industry (Batteries!) so the legacy makers don't have a great advantage there it seems.

I believe we will continue to see Rivian ramp production over the next 5 years as they expand into the R2 market. The R1 platform is a hit, the EDV is a hit, and I'm betting the R2 will be also.

 

[zipzag]

I'm not sure if JLR will survive electrification, though I'm also not sure how they made it this far.

You say Rivian can't ramp...So going from 1k to 24k to 50k units/yr in 3 years is not already "ramping production"? Seems to me they are off to a great start.

If the big players like Ford had the necessary supplier contracts, then why didn't they build more Lightning pickups last year? They are struggling to keep their line turned on as we speak. Much of the constrained supply for EVs is unique to the industry (Batteries!) so the legacy makers don't have a great advantage there it seems.

I believe we will continue to see Rivian ramp production over the next 5 years as they expand into the R2 market. The R1 platform is a hit, the EDV is a hit, and I'm betting the R2 will be also.

Tesla Shanghai is three years in production and makes 20,000 vehicles per week. Ford delivered its first lightning in May of 2022.. Ford is still in its first year of production. Ford plans to make 150,000 this calendar year.

Rivian said that they will be cash flow neutral in 2025. I would like to see the details of how they build out R2 production and greatly decrease their burn rate. The only way that can seemingly work is a massive increase in R1 production next year.

Then there is the issue of apparently not being eligible for the IRA locally sourced battery manufacturing benefit.

Tesla had many rounds of equity dilution to get to profitability. But the year the model S launched Tesla market cap was about 4 billion.

 

[MXA121]

Ford plans to make 150,000 this calendar year.

You need to read more...

 

[Dark-Fx]

Ford is still in its first year of production. Ford plans to make 150,000 this calendar year.

150,000 was the guidance for total 2024 production. They will be at the rate to churn that many out at the end of this year. They never planned on making 150k this year.

 

[the long way downunder]

150,000 was the guidance for total 2024 production. They will be at the rate to churn that many out at the end of this year. They never planned on making 150k this year.

Ford upped their guidance again in the last week or so.
Mach-e is over 220K for '24. I think they claim the F-150 Lightning is out-selling the R1T month by month.
Not that it matters, Rivian is not challenged by competition, they're challenged by their own execution on task, from production to initial quality, from order fulfillment to service and the ownership experience.

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