I thought I read somewhere the factory was essentially shut down for a period of time. Something about some virus that was spreading around.
Sounds like the may have been intentionally building up a logjam in each section of the plant and then getting as many through as they could in a row. Helps to hammer out all of the growing pains they might run into when they are actually at a higher level of production for the whole plant.
Sounds like you weren't listening on the call. It's all supply constraint issues. RJ specifically said that the production line is idle far more than they'd like because of it. But, the key take away was that while the line is running, it's running at a capacity that would get them to 50k vehicles per year. They revised their 2022 estimate to 25k vehicles based on that and expected supply issues resolving in the back half of the year.
So what youre saying is their previous guidance of 50,000 vehicles for 2022, was based on the lines running at their observed capacity, and based on the assumption they would not be impacted by supply interruptions at all.
Go ahead and dial into an Apple or Microsoft earnings call and ask for the mix of SKUs for a given segment. In the most blockbuster year of all time, Apple won't tell you the mix of Pro/non-Pro iPhones, etc. Not because it's "really bad," but because they are extremely unlikely to share anything they aren't legally obligated to disclose. Among other things, it could set the wrong expectations, tip off competitors, misrepresent future plans, or just not be something they have a reason to share.
While many reservation holders may still have a year or more to wait, Rivian reiterated that their previous estimate of getting through the 2021 and older pre-order backlog by the end of 2023 still stands. So while some late 2022 people may get moved into 2023, that isn't going to push everyone in 2023 back even further. They expect supply constraints to ease enough to allow them to still hit that goal.
There are three weeks left so add another 450-600 and then you get around 2000 for Q1 which is double Q4. That is an increase.
Exactly. And beyond that, the lawyers cleared exactly which numbers they would and would not be sharing. RJ can't just go off the cuff and share an unaudited figure publicly like that. It's just not how regulated disclosures work.
50k in 2022 was never the guidance. The 50k was referenced on the call today as the rate at which they could produce in 2022 if they weren't supply constrained. The guidance from the last earning's call was that the target was to get through all of the pre-orders (55k) by the end of 2023. After being prompted, RJ confirmed again today that they expect to get through all 55k by the end of 2023. I tend to be a pessimist so don't believe him, but that's what they're saying. If they do manage to hit 25k (R1 + RCV) by end of 2022, it wouldn't be unreasonable to reach 55k by the end of 2023.
Your example is not a great analogy. It’s not like pro vs non pro. R1 and Amazon vehicles are two completely separate segments - think of it like sales figures of iPhone vs iPad which apple does report in earnings.
I am reservation 40,000 or so, placed mid-September, 2021. My email said Oct-Dec ‘22.
