Q1 2022 production & delivery numbers: 2,553 / 1,227

[AdamsFan1983]

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[ironpig]

Was hoping the numbers were going to be better, but not surprised.

pdf attached.

 

[Scoiatael]

Pretty good numbers. Looks like the scramble at the last 2 weeks of march allowed them to push out half of their stock. Guessing things will slow down now until the end of June.

 

[mgc0216]

So roughly speaking this forum represents about 8% of the early deliveries.

ETA: of course, my logic is faulty because we don't know how many EDVs were in the 1,200

 

[manitou202]

Really wish they would break it down by model. I'm sure at this point it's mostly R1T, but it would be nice to see if any R1S were produced, and how many of those 2,553 went to the delivery vans.

 

[SeaGeo]

Was hoping the numbers were going to be better, but not surprised.

pdf attached.

Idk, I think that's decent for q1 relative to their yearly goal.

 

[mgc0216]

Also, I'm happy w/ those numbers, I just thought they had delivered more than 1,227 (the 2,500 feels about right).

My concern right now is not the ability to produce trucks, but the ability to get them through the service center bottleneck (PDI and actual deliveries). It just feels a bit like that they can produce them much faster than they can actually get them into driveways.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I'm actually kind of surprised by the disparity between produced and delivered based on largely anecdotal evidence. I would have expected the deliveries to be 70-80% of vehicles produced.

 

[LaunchGreen]

Pretty good numbers. Looks like the scramble at the last 2 weeks of march allowed them to push out half of their stock. Guessing things will slow down now until the end of June.

They have steadily increasing production and deliveries so my prediction is the opposite, only speeding up from here.

 

[ironpig]

Idk, I think that's decent for q1 relative to their yearly goal.

Really wish they would break it down by model. I'm sure at this point it's mostly R1T, but it would be nice to see if any R1S were produced, and how many of those 2,553 went to the delivery vans.

I don't think they will give model break downs for a while because any of those numbers will sound like less in whatever clickbait headline an auto journalist writes about this

"Rivian only delivered x R1S in Q1" or "Is amazon ok that Rivian only delivered 445 EDVs in Q1" etc

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

They have steadily increasing production and deliveries so my prediction is the opposite, only speeding up from here.

Right, when you consider that they only delivered approximately half of the vehicles they produced and that they will need to double their rate of manufacture 2x by EOY to meet their stated goals, I can't see how they could slow down between now and EOY.

 

[jjwolf120]

Just as a comparison, GM delivered 98 Hummers in Q1.

 

[mgc0216]

It will be interesting to see how the numbers grow on the tracker spreadsheets.

Quick count puts it at 88 trucks in the first quarter to forum members. but that was basically only one month of deliveries. So a full quarter should have been closer to 275.

If they need to grow a little less than 2x per quarter we should see ~500 people get vehicles in the next 3 months (assuming linear growth, which is definitely not a safe assumption)

 

[AdamsFan1983]

Honestly, my read here is that they were targeting the 2500 built/ 1000 delivered and slowed down once they hit their internal targets (note how many people said they were disinvited to the factory due to lack of vehicles--obviously they have them) such that they could coast a bit while (speculation on my part) they push out a software update that speaks to some if not alot of the issues that are popping up and address any production defects before rolling into a production jump.

Just a theory- but, a cautiously optimistic one.

 

[LaunchGreen]

Right, when you consider that they only delivered approximately half of the vehicles they produced and that they will need to double their rate of manufacture 2x by EOY to meet their stated goals, I can't see how they could slow down between now and EOY.

Actually they will likely need to quadruple production. Something like this if you prefer linear ramp:

Q1: 2,500
Q2: 5,000
Q3: 7,500
Q4: 10,000

or perhaps more reasonable, something more exponential:

Q1: 2,500
Q2: 4,250
Q3: 7,250
Q4: 11,000

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