Does Rivian have what it takes to survive?

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Why would you ask a question that literally nobody on this forum is properly equipped to answer (other than the obvious rhetorical purpose of an opportunity to complain about a recent experience). Maybe email RJ asking him this question, because the honest answer from everyone here is ?‍

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[risingphoenix]

This is a stark contrast to how Tesla was operating before the Model 3 launched.

This statement makes the knowledgeable reader discount your opinion because it's easily provable as false.

 

[Gentilly7]

Rivian’s first deliveries took place at the very end of 2021. So after 3 full years why are you expecting them to produce and sell more than they have? Especially since you already set Tesla as the benchmark for some reason….

Great graph. Most investors expected Rivian to produce more based on Rivian’s own production guidance. They set the expectation, and then lower it when they realize they can’t deliver. By the way, Tesla is the benchmark, that’s why everybody has such high hopes for R2, because of what Tesla did with Model 3 &Y

 

[Gentilly7]

This statement makes the knowledgeable reader discount your opinion because it's easily provable as false.

How so? I genuinely want to know.

 

[lefkonj]

Starting a car company is really tough. Having said that Rivian has the money to survive with the VW investment. The real test is 2026 with the R2, the R1 has been great but with the volume of the R2 that is the true test. Someone seems to say the same thing as the OP every few months, you should have been here in 2021 to see real stress of being an original deposit holder.

 

[risingphoenix]

How so? I genuinely want to know.

Your attempt to be "curious" just makes you look lazy and ignorant.

Tesla:
First car available 2008 (Roadster)
Model S first available 2011
First full profitable year 2020

Rivian:
First car available 2021

Let us all know if you need this explained more clearly or simplified.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I didn’t ask for purchasing advice. I asked for opinions on if Rivian has what it takes to survive.

I don't really care what you asked. I gave you the answer you needed.

 

[M3_R2]

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't understand what can possibly be gleaned from people's opinions that would serve any real world value in respect to understanding whether Rivian has what it takes to survive or not.

 

[COdogman]

Great graph. Most investors expected Rivian to produce more based on Rivian’s own production guidance. They set the expectation, and then lower it when they realize they can’t deliver. By the way, Tesla is the benchmark, that’s why everybody has such high hopes for R2, because of what Tesla did with Model 3 &Y

“Most investors expected…” is not fact. It’s opinion. Despite what you are saying it’s common to adjust delivery expectations for any factory made product based on actual conditions of the market, parts and supplies, etc…

Rivian is not Tesla and I’m SO glad for that. This is a nonsensical thought exercise you are engaged in.

 

[cohall]

 

[BigSkies]

Second guessing Rivian's decisions is always easy. I've second guessed a few myself.

At the end of the day, Rivian's management has more information about their customers and business than any of us ever will. So we mostly need to ask ourselves whether we trust Rivian management to make good decisions for the company.

It doesn't mean every decision has to be perfect, but we have to trust that they have the vision, execution, and capital to make the company successful.

Ask yourself whether you believe that is true.

I believe they most likely have what it takes. It's not guaranteed, but they've articulated a vision that seems achievable, and a capital plan that is believable.

 

[mkg3]

I’ve always been bullish on Rivian, but I recently experienced being a customer shopping for a Rivian and it makes me second guess if they have what it takes to survive. The local sales associates are unresponsive to follow ups. The corporate sales reps are not knowledgeable of the products. The vast drivetrain and battery options for a company that barely produces 50k vehicles a years seems like a poor strategy for increasing volume and becoming profitable.

This is a stark contrast to how Tesla was operating before the Model 3 launched.

I hope I’m wrong.

You're posing a negative-oriented views on very pro Rivian forum. I think you already knew the response would be like.

Thus far, Rivian has not shown that they can survive without external injection of funding (Amazon originally, then Ford in-and -out, and debt insurance, VWG JV and stake in Rivian, and now DOE guarantee loan). While just about everyone here loves RJ and bash Elon, Elon has a track record of successes. RJ does not and so far, his leadership has not shined and can be characterized as mediocre at best. I do think he is getting better and now understands that running the business is not about just having a unique products.

Back to your original questions, I believe Rivian brand will exist beyond the current management, if falters. There are enough critical mass for other automakers to take interest and take over the company, if continue to need external funding.

I am in 100% agreement with your take on having too many options and variant of a two basic models R1S and R1T. When the company updated to lower the production costs for gen 2, instead of revealing and offering Tri- and Quad-motor variant north of $100K, they needed to bridge the gap until the R2 starts producing and offer an entry level around $60K R1S/T

I recall RJ and Clare talking about how amazed they were that people were reserving higher end trim level in early days of earnings call. They kept citing higher ASP (average selling price) compared to the basic model. The thing is, that's when Rivian still had the lower protected prices. Also different economic times where the government was throwing money to people due to Covid. I believe they must have thought that higher ASP is the way to get positive gross margin.

Rivian will sell far fewer Tri- and Quad- Ascent motor performance R1 than if they had offered $60K entry level R1.

R2 cannot come soon enough for Rivian. Hope they won't need any more external cash infusion and now that lower number of EVs are being sold globally, maybe Rivian can benefit from selling zero emission credits too.

As for the service, as an owner, I am very disappointed that Rivian has not fixed the process and expanded the service centers. There are too many service center deserts in the country and cannot expand the sales base without them.

 

[Gentilly7]

Your attempt to be "curious" just makes you look lazy and ignorant.

Tesla:
First car available 2008 (Roadster)
Model S first available 2011
First full profitable year 2020

Rivian:
First car available 2021

Let us all know if you need this explained more clearly or simplified.

Don’t be ”lazy and ignorant” like me. Explain it to me like I’m 8 years old. I really want you to break down the point you are attempting to make.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

No one here knows the answer to your question. But you will get a lot of churn in response.

 

[risingphoenix]

Don’t be ”lazy and ignorant” like me. Explain it to me like I’m 8 years old. I really want you to break down the point you are attempting to make.

Tesla didn't make 50,000 vehicles in a year until 2015, 7 years into their production cycle. We are 3 years into Rivian production cycle.

50,000 in year 3 is better than 50,000 in year 7.

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