New Delivery Delay Confirmed - My R1T Delivery Pushed From October to end of February, 2022.

[LaunchGreen]

Stop spreading this false information. LE has never been promised delivery timing at an individual level, and at a total level, it is by end of Spring 2022.

LOL, It's still on the website: https://stories.rivian.com/deliveries-drivetour-accessories

(oops, someone beat me to it, haha)

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[Smithery]

Stop spreading this false information. LE has never been promised delivery timing at an individual level, and at a total level, it is by end of Spring 2022.

There's a difference between guide contact and delivery, though...?

They still could have all guide contacts by end of November, and still deliver all LE by Spring 2022.

These two things are compatible.

 

[jjswan33]

There's a difference between guide contact and delivery, though...?

They still could have all guide contacts by end of November, and still deliver all LE by Spring 2022.

These two things are compatible.

I think the point is that @Dbeglor claimed that they didn't say they were going to provide LE order holders with expected delivery timing by the end of November. They clearly did.

 

[RWerksman]

You know what, there has already been discussions in other threads trying to water down what this means too. Some folks are saying that an email from [email protected] (or whatever) with something, regardless content (including no delivery date), would meet that criteria.

The amount of bending and twisting that goes on to lower the expectation bar over and over here is astounding at times. Embarrassing, actually.

We should collectively expect excellence, regardless of the situation, and point it out when it doesn't happen.

 

[Dbeglor]

" Literally nothing has changed and every piece of real information supports that is on track."

We have our first denier on the thread. A month ago you would have said everything was on track for the October delivery as well.

A month ago, or more, the correct assumption may have been that that was the case. However, in light of new information, assumptions and probabilities must be adjusted according to Bayes Theorem. A denier would do the exact opposite, ignoring all new information and not adjusting accordingly. Back then, it was expected that deliveries would begin without qualification by employment status. Over time, we learned new information that employees were clearly being prioritized. So, while this doesn't change the overall timeline for deliveries, it does suggest a readjustment is needed for the subclass of non-employees.

However, we're talking about two different things. I never did or would make assumptions about individual deliveries, when that is a fool's errand because it's beyond their capabilities to forecast that, especially pre-production but even still today. I care not about any individual data point, only the larger picture. They can/might miss thousands of individual delivery estimates between now and end of Spring, while still delivering on the timeline of delivering them all. That's all I am concerned about. If they continue to maintain production, everything else works itself out despite the fact there might be a lot of volatility at the finer levels.

The core tenet of my argument is this - there are two timelines going on that are important to separate - 1) the overall production of vehicles and 2) all of the individual delivery timelines of specific orders or even subgroups of orders (location, colors, etc.). Volatility in #2 doesn't necessarily mean volatility in #1.

We were all focused on #2 before because it was all we had. Now we have data for #1 to rely on.

 

[LaunchGreen]

There's a difference between guide contact and delivery, though...?

They still could have all guide contacts by end of November, and still deliver all LE by Spring 2022.

These two things are compatible.

Correct, and they still have 4 weeks to contact everyone and give us estimates. The concerning part is that it hasn't been happening and there was been no update, which is kind of a pattern.

 

[Diddy123]

Correct, and they still have 4 weeks to contact everyone and give us estimates. The concerning part is that it hasn't been happening and there was been no update, which is kind of a pattern.

I think it's safe to say that the contact will be a mass email on the last day of November, and the "expected delivery timing" will remain a blanket "by the end of Spring". No real new info, and certainly no personal touch.

This is how the company has historically acted with their communication strategy. Kinda sorta meet the bare minimum of a deadline, and then go silent again for months on end.

 

[timesinks]

The instagram post a while back that listed the cities for upcoming test drives conspicuously omitted Seattle. Looks like OP is here in Washington...

Since the trucks are clearly in production and they have target numbers through the end of the year, I wonder if they ran into some sort of roadblock rolling out deliveries here. I would trust the S-1 given the very real consequences of lying on that document over the leap all the way to "the sky has fallen." They're producing trucks, ramping up to produce more faster, and working through their order backlog. At this point, it feels more like a change in delivery ordering rather than a fundamental shift in anticipated factory output schedules.

I certainly wouldn't have made the choice to withhold the context if that were the case, but Rivian does seem to compartmentalize information and keep tight lips in a way that creates the perfect conditions for the angry mob to do what it does best.

 

[LaunchGreen]

The instagram post a while back that listed the cities for upcoming test drives conspicuously omitted Seattle. Looks like OP is here in Washington...

Since the trucks are clearly in production and they have target numbers through the end of the year, I wonder if they ran into some sort of roadblock rolling out deliveries here. I would trust the S-1 given the very real consequences of lying on that document over the leap all the way to "the sky has fallen." They're producing trucks, ramping up to produce more faster, and working through their order backlog. At this point, it feels more like a change in delivery ordering rather than a fundamental shift in anticipated factory output schedules.

I certainly wouldn't have made the choice to withhold the context if that were the case, but Rivian does seem to compartmentalize information and keep tight lips in a way that creates the perfect conditions for the angry mob to do what it does best.

 

[Temerarius]

After wading through all 12.. (holy crap) pages in this thread, I think it's clear that:

1. Rivian's communication "plan" is a shitfest, and they really need to step it up.
2. Delays, while unpleasant, should be expected (given a sofa I ordered a month ago isn't slated to arrive until April... holy shit... it's a SOFA).
3. Rivian's lack of communication (early communication, clear communication, and timely updates) is making point 2 WAY worse.

To @Zoidz point, the delays may well be outside of Rivian's hands (suppliers), and that we can cut them a break on the delays, however, their lack of a communication plan is pretty insulting.

 

[Diddy123]

At this point, it feels more like a change in delivery ordering rather than a fundamental shift in anticipated factory output schedules.

I don't remember the exact numbers, but I think it was something like 1,000 trucks delivered by end of year. I'm now wondering if there's at least 1,000 employees with trucks ordered, and there will be no customers (that aren't related to the company) who will get a delivery this year?

 

[Diddy123]

After wading through all 12.. (holy crap) pages in this thread, I think it's clear that:

1. Rivian's communication "plan" is a shitfest, and they really need to step it up.
2. Delays, while unpleasant, should be expected (given a sofa I ordered a month ago isn't slated to arrive until April... holy shit... it's a SOFA).
3. Rivian's lack of communication (early communication, clear communication, and timely updates) is making point 2 WAY worse.

To @Zoidz point, the delays may well be outside of Rivian's hands (suppliers), and that we can cut them a break on the delays, however, their lack of a communication plan is pretty insulting.

You nailed it.

Also, now all I can visualize is your sofa trying to make it across the pacific by April...

 

[eggpaul]

I think it's safe to say that the contact will be a mass email on the last day of November, and the "expected delivery timing" will remain a blanket "by the end of Spring". No real new info, and certainly no personal touch.

This is how the company has historically acted with their communication strategy. Kinda sorta meet the bare minimum of a deadline, and then go silent again for months on end.

I would definitely bet on this. We will not get individual timelines, but end of Spring (or maybe longer". Rivian, please surprise us.

 

[Dbeglor]

I would definitely bet on this. We will not get individual timelines, but end of Spring (or maybe longer". Rivian, please surprise us.

It's not realistic to expect personalized delivery timelines for most given where things currently stand. They may have thought they'd be at that point now back in August, but they aren't. They'd be better off saying it's too early to provide individual estimates, or give them with a large helping of caveat emptor. People in locations they are confident will be first can probably get loose estimates at this time (like the revised Feb one being discussed in this thread), but I certainly don't expect a timeline worth the paper it's printed on for me personally.

If the communication they give is the best they can at the time it's given, it's sort of irrelevant whether it lives up to what they thought it would be in August, no? Isn't that the exact honesty and transparency we all want?

 

[bowhunter]

Deadline is too strong a word... The biggest error they made was in not clearly communicating what those estimates were, which were WAGs. I think some understood that, clearly others did not.

I can't speak to other's experience with their guides, but my delivery estimate was definitely not presented as a WAG. In fact he said he was confident that it would be sooner than the "delivery by" date.

Since the trucks are clearly in production and they have target numbers through the end of the year, I wonder if they ran into some sort of roadblock rolling out deliveries here. I would trust the S-1 given the very real consequences of lying on that document over the leap all the way to "the sky has fallen." They're producing trucks, ramping up to produce more faster, and working through their order backlog. At this point, it feels more like a change in delivery ordering rather than a fundamental shift in anticipated factory output schedules.

My pitchfork is close at hand, but I'm not joining the march yet. We need more data points before we can reach a conclusion (other than communication being terrible). I was thinking along the same lines that we may be seeing a shift in sequence. At one point several people on the forum expressed frustration that people who ordered well after them had been contacted by a guide (including in the same regions) and some contacted customer service to express this. Perhaps this communication was heard and along with service centers in additional regions being readied they are shifting the queue order to align more closely with order date? Issues with Washington sales may also be a factor though I would have thought they would have cited that if that was the case rather than supply chain issues. I am well within the first 1,000 LE R1T pre-orders, but have no clue where I fit into the "calculated" queue.

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