Invest in RIVN Now While Price is Low?

[Hereforthesnacks]

When I bought my model 3 in 2019, I also bought TSLA stock. It had been wallowing around $14.00 for years. I bought the stock because I believed in the car and the company.

In 2024 when Elon went bonkers I traded my Tesla in for my R1T and sold my Tesla stock at an 800% profit and reinvested it in RIVN. If you believe in the car/company, you should believe in the stock. At no time did I consider “timing” when purchasing.

TSLA was languishing at $14.00 in 2019, RIVN is around $14.00 now. To me it’s a no-brainer.

Except Tesla was launching in a no competition environment, with heavy subsidies to customers, and billions in govt financing.

Rivian is launching in a heavy competition environment, with a risk of having 0 customer subsidies, and govt subsidies gone for 4 years.

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[Gigabit]

The better they make their price to sales ratio next year with their new models is what will make or break them. This will be based on competitive prices and functional software suite. Sure looks like this stock is in a solid accumulation phase. Now this doesn't necessarily mean we will have a major price discovery phase. If Rivian can thread the needle focusing on making a quality automobile with technology features that meets most needs the stock will do alright. They achieved an amazing feat with their first product out of the gate but you can tell they were heavy on engineering and light on manufacturing efficiency. Their second swing is expected to be more balanced which leads to affordability.

Additionally I think if they are focusing on very large battery packs, they would benefit greatly in the V2H segment as a huge whole house backup, would be cool for them to team up with enphase or something to really take a hit in Tesla power walls. I think in the next 20 years whole house battery solutions are going to be a large part of the distributed electrical grid to help with discontinuities with load growth (i.e. the grid can't upgrade as fast as our demand of electricity).

 

[chrismc]

The better they make their price to sales ratio next year with their new models is what will make or break them. This will be based on competitive prices and functional software suite. Sure looks like this stock is in a solid accumulation phase. Now this doesn't necessarily mean we will have a major price discovery phase. If Rivian can thread the needle focusing on making a quality automobile with technology features that meets most needs the stock will do alright. They achieved an amazing feat with their first product out of the gate but you can tell they were heavy on engineering and light on manufacturing efficiency. Their second swing is expected to be more balanced which leads to affordability.

Additionally I think if they are focusing on very large battery packs, they would benefit greatly in the V2H segment as a huge whole house backup, would be cool for them to team up with enphase or something to really take a hit in Tesla power walls. I think in the next 20 years whole house battery solutions are going to be a large part of the distributed electrical grid to help with discontinuities with load growth (i.e. the grid can't upgrade as fast as our demand of electricity).

Funny you mention Enphase, they’re the other green stock I lost my ass on besides Rivian @IPO! Same pattern even: purchase a product, say “this product is really incredible! they’re going to sell tons of them! I should by stock in this company!”, then watch the stock slowly go down down down down due to political winds and circumstances beyond their control that you didn’t foresee.

 

[DD4ST]

I invested in Rivian a few months ago, currently sitting at a slight loss. They just announced lower than expected sales targets meaning overproduction the second half of the year or the stock will get cut again. There is also a bevy of new competition, including the similar-looking Scout. To say the stock is cheap right now is relative. It can go lower. I think the possibility of a significant stock gain in the near future is bleak. This is a long term game where Rivian is ultimately successful or is acquired by a mainline auto maker, which I think is a real possibility.

 

[PassesGas81]

By pure luck I happened to check in on the stock when it was at $10.00 and thought, "I love the company and want to put my money where my mouth is," and ended up buying at $10.04. I don't own much (500 shares) because I can't afford to gamble, but I see it as a long term investment and have no plans on selling anytime soon.

 

[Rivian Owner]

Best advice, don't buy individual stocks unless you are prepared to lose your investment. The large investment banks trade in milliseconds, your order is completed in minutes at best and more typically at the end of the day. Yeah some people have gotten lucky, but the market is rigged against the small investor. Even :experienced stock pickers" lose. If you doubt me look up the bet Warren Buffet had with a "stock picker". Warren invested in indexed mutual funds and the stock picker invested in his individual picks. IIRC, the bet was supposed to last 5 years, but after a year the stock picker was so far behind that he conceded defeat, said he'd never catch up. Clearly most of us don't have the resources of some "guru" that works for a mutual fund managing a billion dollar portfolio.

So the moral of the story is, have fun picking individual stocks, but look at it like going to Vegas, most people lose money. As much as I like Rivian, the only money I would invest would be money that I wouldn't care about if I never saw it again.

 

[runnertyler]

The advice is always that you should treat individual stock issues as lost money, but it really doesn't need to be like that. If you like the company but are concerned by downside risk, educate yourself on basic hedging strategies so you don't lose everything.

For example, I put a very small allocation (2%) of my total portfolio into RIVN. I want the opportunity to participate in upside potential, but I'm unwilling to lose more than 20% of my investment. You can either create a stop-loss order to sell if it hits a certain level, or you can do what I did which is to buy a $10 put option which allows me to sell the stock at $10 even if the underlying drops below that. To minimize the premium, I sold an $8 put option and collected that premium.

All in all, I'm able to participate in the upside while holding a protective put/bear spread. Invest if you like, but hedge if you are concerned.

 

[mkg3]

Best advice, don't buy individual stocks unless you are prepared to lose your investment...

So the moral of the story is, have fun picking individual stocks, but look at it like going to Vegas, most people lose money...

With all due respect, completely disagree with the generalized statement like this is.

People have different risk tolerance and knowledge regarding to investing. The statement made works for you, perhaps. Not necessarily for most people.

I am a stock picker and only have single handful of ETFs in my portfolio. I have averaged over 20% return CAGR and more than 8x my net worth in 12 years - 99.9% from picking individual stocks.

If one is to generalize anything about investing is to learn how to invest and not be emotional or just buy things one likes (e.g., $RIVN). This basic knowledge is required even in terms of selecting the right financial advisor, if one so chooses.

For me, I only invest in companies I understand the business itself and their fundamentals as well as their strategy. I tend to buy and hold until it makes no sense to hold onto any further.

I don't subscribe to any hot- tip newsletters or services. I do my own research and do pay attention to the market psychology and momentum for trends. The only technical I pay attention is the RSI for overbought and oversold (mostly used to support buying decision timing).

Also avoid knee-jerk reaction based on a piece of news or what someone said.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Best advice, don't buy individual stocks unless you are prepared to lose your investment. The large investment banks trade in milliseconds, your order is completed in minutes at best and more typically at the end of the day. Yeah some people have gotten lucky, but the market is rigged against the small investor. Even :experienced stock pickers" lose. If you doubt me look up the bet Warren Buffet had with a "stock picker". Warren invested in indexed mutual funds and the stock picker invested in his individual picks. IIRC, the bet was supposed to last 5 years, but after a year the stock picker was so far behind that he conceded defeat, said he'd never catch up. Clearly most of us don't have the resources of some "guru" that works for a mutual fund managing a billion dollar portfolio.

So the moral of the story is, have fun picking individual stocks, but look at it like going to Vegas, most people lose money. As much as I like Rivian, the only money I would invest would be money that I wouldn't care about if I never saw it again.

This sums up my thoughts on the matter. My "real" investments are managed through several reputable investment houses, and I've diversified them into various vehicles, including mutual funds, 401Ks, and dividend funds. I have a small amount of money in an investment account that I occasionally play with, and that is the limit to my Rivian holdings. So far, I've made a 40ish percent return on it, simply by buying when it's low and selling a few dollars per share higher, as it's been trading sideways. I don't take this as serious wealth building, as there is too much risk for me in relying on it.

Maybe I'll generate some real revenue from it, maybe not but the important thing is to look at it like gambling as you said. If you understand the companies you're investing in and stay out of leveraged trading it is better odds than Vegas where everything is rigged for you to lose but it isn't reliable enough to consider it your wealth generation strategy.

Check out stock trading subreddits; you'll find huge plays that net 1K% returns, alongside even more significant 1k% losses. Those people are YOLOing single stocks and occasionally they do hit big. Unfortunately for them, the same behavior that caused them to hit big also usually causes them to fold.

 

[Rivian Owner]

With all due respect, completely disagree with the generalized statement like this is.

People have different risk tolerance and knowledge regarding to investing. The statement made works for you, perhaps. Not necessarily for most people.

I am a stock picker and only have single handful of ETFs in my portfolio. I have averaged over 20% return CAGR and more than 8x my net worth in 12 years - 99.9% from picking individual stocks.

If one is to generalize anything about investing is to learn how to invest and not be emotional or just buy things one likes (e.g., $RIVN). This basic knowledge is required even in terms of selecting the right financial advisor, if one so chooses.

For me, I only invest in companies I understand the business itself and their fundamentals as well as their strategy. I tend to buy and hold until it makes no sense to hold onto any further.

I don't subscribe to any hot- tip newsletters or services. I do my own research and do pay attention to the market psychology and momentum for trends. The only technical I pay attention is the RSI for overbought and oversold (mostly used to support buying decision timing).

Also avoid knee-jerk reaction based on a piece of news or what someone said.

I agree, my statements may not work for all people, but certainly the majority of people aren't equipped to pick individual stocks, if for no other reason than they don't have the tools, or access to rapid trading. For example as news events happen the small investor can't respond like a large investment bank. Most small investors don't have access to the advanced research that would allow them to make sound decisions and instead rely on the advice of someone who may not have their best interests at heart. As an example of most individuals understanding of the markets, survey your friends and family and see how many of them know why yields on bonds go down when bond prices rise. And don't get me started on Financial Pirates, I mean Financial Advisors.

You've had a great run while the markets have moved mostly in one direction so I tip my hat to you, and I hope you do well if and when the markets tumble. I don't agree that the markets are different from Vegas. The markets are rigged to the advantage of the large investment banks and vulture capitalists.

The best way for the average Joe to invest is to purchase index funds that track large segments of the markets so they can diversify their holdings and insulate themselves from fluctuations in individual sectors of the market. They don't need to pay high commissions, high fees for some "expert" to pick their mutual funds that also have high fees.

I'll continue to put my money on Warren Buffet's advice, who has been investing longer than you or I, and has been much more successful than most investors through both ups and downs in the markets.

 

[DD4ST]

This sums up my thoughts on the matter. My "real" investments are managed through several reputable investment houses, and I've diversified them into various vehicles, including mutual funds, 401Ks, and dividend funds. I have a small amount of money in an investment account that I occasionally play with, and that is the limit to my Rivian holdings. So far, I've made a 40ish percent return on it, simply by buying when it's low and selling a few dollars per share higher, as it's been trading sideways. I don't take this as serious wealth building, as there is too much risk for me in relying on it.

Maybe I'll generate some real revenue from it, maybe not but the important thing is to look at it like gambling as you said. If you understand the companies you're investing in and stay out of leveraged trading it is better odds than Vegas where everything is rigged for you to lose but it isn't reliable enough to consider it your wealth generation strategy.

Check out stock trading subreddits; you'll find huge plays that net 1K% returns, alongside even more significant 1k% losses. Those people are YOLOing single stocks and occasionally they do hit big. Unfortunately for them, the same behavior that caused them to hit big also usually causes them to fold.

My attitude exactly. I invest with Scwab and they currently rate this stock as an ‘F’. I’ve only invested 0.2% of my portfolio as part of my play money. Just because I was willing to purchase a Rivian and think they have promise doesn’t mean most of America does. Rivian has some positives but a lot of headwinds, too. Chief among them is competition and negatively changing government policies.

 

[mkg3]

...but certainly the majority of people aren't equipped to pick individual stocks, if for no other reason than they don't have the tools, or access to rapid trading.....Most small investors don't have access to the advanced research...

Just to clarify, I do not subscribe to any professional terminal or react instantaneously to news. I am a true retail investor and use Fidelity web interface. I don't even bother with their advanced trading interface. I don't really care about the day-to-day movement as much as overall trends and direction of the stock. For that, there is no special tools required. Internet is full of data and info for everyone.

You've had a great run while the markets have moved mostly in one direction so I tip my hat to you, and I hope you do well if and when the markets tumble. I don't agree that the markets are different from Vegas. The markets are rigged to the advantage of the large investment banks and vulture capitalists.

It is this exact belief that keeps people like you and many others to stay away from investing in individual stocks. Like I said, it's an educated understanding of the business that one is investing in. It is not to say that there isn't volitilities time to time. I also do not believe the market is "rigged" as you say.

The best way for the average Joe to invest is to purchase index funds that track large segments of the markets so they can diversify their holdings and insulate themselves from fluctuations in individual sectors of the market. They don't need to pay high commissions, high fees for some "expert" to pick their mutual funds that also have high fees.

If you mean that the average Joe doesn't want to spend the time and learn to invest, then yes we agree. That said, mutual fund is probably the worst vehicle. ETFs are much more efficient and lower cost. As for commissions, I have never paid a penny for any commission. Trades are free these days.

I'll continue to put my money on Warren Buffet's advice, who has been investing longer than you or I, and has been much more successful than most investors through both ups and downs in the markets.

If you follow Berkshire and WB, then you'll know that he is concentrated in insurance, banking (financials) and rail. Also sitting on an over $300B in cash. Definitely not index fund mix. He also says invest in things one understands. I do fallow that.

 

[SASSquatch]

Except Tesla was launching in a no competition environment, with heavy subsidies to customers, and billions in govt financing.

Rivian is launching in a heavy competition environment, with a risk of having 0 customer subsidies, and govt subsidies gone for 4 years.

Pay the man!

 

[SASSquatch]

My attitude exactly. I invest with Scwab and they currently rate this stock as an ‘F’. I’ve only invested 0.2% of my portfolio as part of my play money. Just because I was willing to purchase a Rivian and think they have promise doesn’t mean most of America does. Rivian has some positives but a lot of headwinds, too. Chief among them is competition and negatively changing government policies.

I've significantly reduced my position over the last 12 months but I'm not exiting my position entirely. I couldn't justify not investing in AI/Quantum stocks which have an absurd ROI right now in my larger portfolio.

I am genuinely concerned about Rivian. They are facing extraordinary challenges and losing the regulatory credits is a significant blow at a time where they need all the revenue that they can get. R2 demand against a backdrop of loss of subsidies and economic headwinds is what we will have to watch out for. I worry by the time we are in production, consumers aren't going to have the appetite to buy in the volumes Rivian needs.

 

[SASSquatch]

I've been saying this all along - but if I were RJ I would be trying to explore and leverage strategic partnerships. It is the only way Rivian can survive in this climate.

GM and Hyundai are a perfect example of what I am talking about and I had hoped early on that Rivian and Ford could have had a similar partnership until Ford decided to go in another direction.

I still think there is a lot of room to leverage the existing partnership with VW. Rivian needs revenue. The EREV revolution is coming and Rivian needs to make sure they are positioned to take advantage of it.

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