Where $RIVN is Headed in 2026?

[Donald Stanfield]

Different times, environment, assumptions and tack records.

Sure, if you believe what you say, great. I do not.

I actually agree with you that it’s not likely to happen to Rivian. My comment was more to point out that Tesla trades irrationally.

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[Just Passing By]

... the pushback on EVs globally ...

This doesn't seem to be accurate on a global basis. Not in China. Not in Europe either where "Europe’s EV market jumped 36% year-over-year in November 2025, with BEV sales up 35% and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales rising 39%. That brings Europe’s total EV sales to 3.8 million units for the year so far, up 33% compared to January–November 2024." On a quick search I didn't find European YTD BEV-only data but it doesn't look like a drop in demand to me based on the data above, quite the reverse.

For the US in 2026, it will depend on how compelling BEV vehicles are versus their ICE competition because in many cases the two drive types are close in pricing now. The R2 and the BMW iX3 look quite compelling in their likely price ranges. At lower price points, Hyundai have Kona, Ioniq 5 and Ioniq 6 starting between $30-40k, the 2026 Nissan Leaf starting at $30k and 2027 Bolt starting at $26.8k, presumably the 2026 Toyota C-HR will also be competitive in this range. While Tesla sales have declined for a number of reasons, the M3/MY both start under $40k and will continue to sell.

I suspect the 2026 US BEV market is going to be stronger than many seem to believe and despite a narrative that seems to be prevalent that BEV sales are declining, when its the rate of growth that is declining with actual unit sales still increasing.

 

[mkg3]

This doesn't seem to be accurate on a global basis. Not in China. Not in Europe either where "Europe’s EV market jumped 36% year-over-year in November 2025, with BEV sales up 35% and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales rising 39%. That brings Europe’s total EV sales to 3.8 million units for the year so far, up 33% compared to January–November 2024." On a quick search I didn't find European YTD BEV-only data but it doesn't look like a drop in demand to me based on the data above, quite the reverse.

For the US in 2026, it will depend on how compelling BEV vehicles are versus their ICE competition because in many cases the two drive types are close in pricing now. The R2 and the BMW iX3 look quite compelling in their likely price ranges. At lower price points, Hyundai have Kona, Ioniq 5 and Ioniq 6 starting between $30-40k, the 2026 Nissan Leaf starting at $30k and 2027 Bolt starting at $26.8k, presumably the 2026 Toyota C-HR will also be competitive in this range. While Tesla sales have declined for a number of reasons, the M3/MY both start under $40k and will continue to sell.

I suspect the 2026 US BEV market is going to be stronger than many seem to believe and despite a narrative that seems to be prevalent that BEV sales are declining, when its the rate of growth that is declining with actual unit sales still increasing.

To clarify, never meant that the EV demand is gone. The growth rate is significantly lower than it used to be or expected to be just a couple of years ago, especially for the mid to high end EVs. The flood of low cost Chinese EVs are selling globally.

As for my statement about the push back on EV globally, it's the auto industry and how they all are trying to fight off the Chinese EVs. The zero emission regulations have pushed back in both US and EU.

It is a very complicated equation. The west cannot compete on subsidized EV development and production coming from China or the pace of EV innovation as the result of the subsidy today. The western automakers need the higher margin ICE-based hybrids and straight ICE vehicles to stay in business and buy time to figure out how to leapfrog the onslaught of the cheap Chinese EVs in the low end.

While we see $40K EV as a low priced vehicles, it is not in the context of the global vehicle sales. US sweet spot maybe $45k, but it's more like $25K for the rest of the 1st world and significantly less for the 3rd world. Vast majority of BYD BEVs are very low priced vehicles. They may have topped Tesla in units. They most definitely have not topped them on profits.

No doubt that BEV sales will grow over time and it should. It's a better mousetrap than PHEV or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (no infrastructure). Its just going to take more time and no one today knows what the end state looks like in terms of who survives and who doesn't.

 

[Just Passing By]

The growth rate is significantly lower than it used to be

Focusing on growth rate can be misleading. Even in a hot market the rate of growth will slow over time because the base denominator for your growth is increasing. As an example the rate of growth for BEVs in Norway has fallen massively over time. Why, because in September 2025 98.3% of all vehicles bought were BEVs, for the first nine months of 2025 95% of all vehicles purchased were BEVs. The only growth left in the Norwegian market is organic growth of gross vehicle sales because there are relatively few ICEV left to convert to BEV.

So the TL;DR is focus on actual units shipped as I illustrated for Europe.

it's the auto industry and how they all are trying to fight off the Chinese EVs. The zero emission regulations have pushed back in both US and EU.

None of that means consumers will necessarily play along and buy ICEV instead of BEV.

It is a very complicated equation. The west cannot compete on subsidized EV development and production coming from China or the pace of EV innovation as the result of the subsidy today. The western automakers need the higher margin ICE-based hybrids and straight ICE vehicles to stay in business and buy time to figure out how to leapfrog the onslaught of the cheap Chinese EVs in the low end.

Again if that's a problem for the manufacturers then its for them to resolve and/or for governments to apply tariff barriers. It doesn't dictate what individuals will buy from a market that includes competitive non-Chinese BEVs. Look at Ford UK's offerings for example.

While we see $40K EV as a low priced vehicles, it is not in the context of the global vehicle sales. US sweet spot maybe $45k, but it's more like $25K for the rest of the 1st world

Do "we" see a $40K EV, or any car at that price, as a low priced vehicle? I don't and I bet most American's don't either, given plenty of vehicles start at less then $30K. I provided examples of BEV vehicles starting at closer to $30k or less to illustrate more options at lower price points specifically for this reason. BTW last I looked the 1st world includes Europe and you won't find many vehicles there starting at $25K or less, its certainly not a sweet spot.

 

[mkg3]

Focusing on growth rate can be misleading. Even in a hot market the rate of growth will slow over time because the base denominator for your growth is increasing. As an example the rate of growth for BEVs in Norway has fallen massively over time. Why, because in September 2025 98.3% of all vehicles bought were BEVs, for the first nine months of 2025 95% of all vehicles purchased were BEVs. The only growth left in the Norwegian market is organic growth of gross vehicle sales because there are relatively few ICEV left to convert to BEV.

So the TL;DR is focus on actual units shipped as I illustrated for Europe.

None of that means consumers will necessarily play along and buy ICEV instead of BEV.

Again if that's a problem for the manufacturers then its for them to resolve and/or for governments to apply tariff barriers. It doesn't dictate what individuals will buy from a market that includes competitive non-Chinese BEVs. Look at Ford UK's offerings for example.

Do "we" see a $40K EV, or any car at that price, as a low priced vehicle? I don't and I bet most American's don't either, given plenty of vehicles start at less then $30K. I provided examples of BEV vehicles starting at closer to $30k or less to illustrate more options at lower price points specifically for this reason. BTW last I looked the 1st world includes Europe and you won't find many vehicles there starting at $25K or less, its certainly not a sweet spot.

You must just like to argue. This is meaningless.

Okay, fine. I don't want to banter. So if you like, let just say that your right about everything.

Have a good day

 

[Just Passing By]

You must just like to argue. This is meaningless.

Okay, fine. I don't want to banter. So if you like, let just say that your right about everything.

Have a good day

No, I don't like to argue. I commented because you posted unsupported opinions as facts. I provided some comments and links to substantiate what I was observing, which is counter to the points you were making. You asked for the community's thoughts in your OP and I provided mine. Nothing more.

Likewise enjoy the rest of your day

 

[mkhuffman]

No, I don't like to argue. I commented because you posted unsupported opinions as facts. I provided some comments and links to substantiate what I was observing, which is counter to the points you were making. You asked for the community's thoughts in your OP and I provided mine. Nothing more.

Likewise enjoy the rest of your day

Is it possible you are arguing about arguing?

 

[Time2Roll]

Going to be a solid 18+ months from first R2 release to know if the success is real and sufficient.
Only guesses can be made to late 2027.

I will not have a position until the solid profits put RVIN into the SP500.

I wish them well.

 

[R1TS]

Looks like we’re going back down, captain.

 

[Seano]

I think there are significant headwinds for the foreseeable future.

My opinion is that R2 will roll out slow and steady - hopefully gaining steam as people get their hands on them. I do believe the midsize SUV is one of the hottest segments.

Even if R2 does what it’s supposed to, it wil take a long while for stock price to catch up - so much uncertainty about evs now.

All opinion, btw

 

[mkg3]

Well, here we are a month into 2026 and January was a very poor month for Rivian.

The current 14 day RSI is at 27.2 (oversold) and MFI is at 12 (mass exodus).

The next catalyst (up or down) on the earnings report on 2/12/26.

 

[mkhuffman]

Just average down and move on.

 

[mkg3]

Just average down and move on.

To clarify, wasn't posting to cry about it. I have no need for more Rivian shares. I have too much already having averaged down before.

Just tracking progress (or lack thereof) for the month. Remember that this thread I started was about where is it headed this important year for Rivian. Many here believe that R2 launch is the catalyst for share price increase.

 

[mkg3]

Earnings announcement for 2025 and Q4, and the call today. Expect lots of R2 questions from the analysts during Q&A. Starts 14.00PST

https://rivian-q4-earnings-webcast-2025.open-exchange.net/welcome

 

[mkg3]

Here are the numbers:

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