Where $RIVN is Headed in 2026?

[kurtlikevonnegut]

62-67k total translates to probably 25-30k R2 for 2026.

Sponsored

 

[Dark-Fx]

My crystal ball says the price is going to drop when 4th quarter results are announced.

How could your crystal ball do this to me

 

[Erik+]

Crystal ball looks like it needs a realignment with the post earnings movement.

 

[mkg3]

62-67k total translates to probably 25-30k R2 for 2026.

Maybe as high as 35k units.

62~67k units includes all vehicles so subtract 10K Amazon EDVs and left with 52~57k units.

If 30K for R2, that leaves 22~27K for R1, where most will come from R1T due to commercial fleet sales to various companies (e.g., AT&T)

R2 will take most of the R1S sales away, just as Model Y took Model X sales.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Maybe as high as 35k units.

62~67k units includes all vehicles so subtract 10K Amazon EDVs and left with 52~57k units.

If 30K for R2, that leaves 22~27K for R1, where most will come from R1T due to commercial fleet sales to various companies (e.g., AT&T)

R2 will take most of the R1S sales away, just as Model Y took Model X sales.

I don't think it's quite a 1:1 situation re: X and R1S.

Looking at this year as an example, I think there's still a market to sell 20-20k R1 S annually. Maybe it's less but I highly doubt the majority of the R1 sales will be commercial sales of the T

 

[Just Passing By]

How could your crystal ball do this to me

Should have stuck with the Magic 8 Ball

 

[Just Passing By]

62-67k total translates to probably 25-30k R2 for 2026.

For those modelling Rivian production numbers its probably worth working on the assumption that Rivian are sandbagging those production numbers in order to under-promise, over-deliver. Especially because RJ stated they are planning to exit the year operating two shifts.

 

[mkhuffman]

For those modelling Rivian production numbers its probably worth working on the assumption that Rivian are sandbagging those production numbers in order to under-promise, over-deliver. Especially because RJ stated they are planning to exit the year operating two shifts.

They didn't do that last year. They "promised" and under delivered.

 

[Just Passing By]

They didn't do that last year. They "promised" and under delivered.

Yeah, a few things happened in 2025 that affected the entire industry.

 

[Wilber]

This doesn't seem to be accurate on a global basis. Not in China. Not in Europe either where "Europe’s EV market jumped 36% year-over-year in November 2025, with BEV sales up 35% and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales rising 39%. That brings Europe’s total EV sales to 3.8 million units for the year so far, up 33% compared to January–November 2024." On a quick search I didn't find European YTD BEV-only data but it doesn't look like a drop in demand to me based on the data above, quite the reverse.

For the US in 2026, it will depend on how compelling BEV vehicles are versus their ICE competition because in many cases the two drive types are close in pricing now. The R2 and the BMW iX3 look quite compelling in their likely price ranges. At lower price points, Hyundai have Kona, Ioniq 5 and Ioniq 6 starting between $30-40k, the 2026 Nissan Leaf starting at $30k and 2027 Bolt starting at $26.8k, presumably the 2026 Toyota C-HR will also be competitive in this range. While Tesla sales have declined for a number of reasons, the M3/MY both start under $40k and will continue to sell.

I suspect the 2026 US BEV market is going to be stronger than many seem to believe and despite a narrative that seems to be prevalent that BEV sales are declining, when its the rate of growth that is declining with actual unit sales still increasing.

I agree on all points. The mainstream US media over dramatizes the effect of the loss of the federal tax credit. And simply doesnt understand EVs and the unique situation of Rivian. The fast/quiet/non-vibrating ride, and the form factor of an EV like Rivian wins over many ICE drivers. Not to mention that maintenance is cheaper than ICE. And keep in mind that the R2 is EU compliant, so can start selling in EU fairly soon. And, the strength of the VW deal is a huge asset for RIVN. Of course IF something totally crazy comes out of the White House and crashes the US economy all bets are off.

 

[mkg3]

US EV sales dropped -2% in 2025 YOY. First downturn in a decade. The EV sales report in January is abysmal, even for traditionally bad month. Even Chine is slowing.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainabil...ered-by-china-us-slowdown-january-2026-02-13/

Here is the Cox Auto report on US EV sales. While EU is better than US, it too is dropping rapidly.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/insights-hub/q4-2025-ev-sales-report-commentary/

The table below is the US EV sales:

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

Yeah, a few things happened in 2025 that affected the entire industry.

Rivian was disproportionally hit. This is the year. How many people buy the R2. After these numbers come in, it’s either better cash flow or just excuses.

 

[Biturbowned]

For what it’s worth, there have been some analyst upgrades at 20+ over the last couple of days.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

They didn't do that last year. They "promised" and under delivered.

They need to stop doing that. Stop giving pricing info two years in advance as well. Too much can happen in that time period (tax credits gone, tariffs, etc.)

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

Somehow we got off topic here.

$RIVN was under $14 toward the end of 2/12/26. I bought 15 shares before closing (I should have bought more!) After hours it went over $17 a share and then during the day on the 13th over $18! It settled around $17.76 after hours.

I’m thinking maybe it will dip again after Q1 results, since R2 doesn’t deliver until Q2. Q1 is a slow quarter anyway. I’m not a financial advisor though, so invest at your own risk.

Sponsored