My point was that it is not true that non Lidar vehicles will be ugly ducklings in the used market. Some people over estimate the appeal of L4 autonomy (L3 is ok with current hardware and L4 is many years away).
Well that might be true. Good point.
Development on Gen 1 R1 autonomy stopped immediately after Gen 2 dropped. I just don’t know how you can see them break all their Gen 1 autonomy promises and halt all development on that platform only a couple years after it came out and still think there's zero chance of the same thing happening again on R2, especially when there are obvious flags being raised.
Agreed. I think the compute power increase and change of architecture arguably have more significance. Maxi-Me just officially flushed HW3, and it wasn't because his jellybeans don't have LIDAR. And any compute architecture switch is pretty much always just the first notice of software EOL (still years away I should hope, and certainly further out than a typical car lease sunset, but fewer years than for the new chips).
They have promised the improvements on autonomy this year before ADAS version 3 with RAP1 and LiDAR comes out next year. So we will see if they meet commitments, which with autonomy day late last year is much more visible.
It is not “insane” to say it doesn’t matter (much). First because a lot of people don’t care too much for autonomy beyond what is already available (as shown by take rate for FSD and many other manufacturers not doing much more than Rivian (eg Toyota) and still selling well) and secondly because the current version 2 ADAS can go to Level 3 with hands off and eyes off (at least for highway). RJ in recent interviews said L4 (which is what RAP1 and lidar is for primarily) would be late 2020s to early 2030s and given the may companies are trying and not getting their yet I would bet on early 2030s which means five plus years - hence not insane to not be obsessed with RAP1 and to get the advantages of the launch edition.
Well we are on a Rivian enthusiast forum here, not at a dealership where some regular Joe is buying a Toyota. Two completely different consumers. Regardless, I think you missed the point I was making. Rivian is the lucky beneficiary Tesla's mistakes. It is far more obvious now the compute and camera requirements needed for L3/L4 than it was even 3 years ago. So Gen3 RAP1 is already spec'd way higher than Tesla's AI4, so it will be able to handle L3/L4 and then they'll iterate on the "march of 9's" from there with RAP2, etc.
I agree with a lot of what you say.
I probably just feel that way bc I've own(ed) Tesla's in the past and have seen how this game goes. Maybe the word "insane" was too strong of wording in my original post
That's most interesting to me as well because we've always been able to beat the technological challenges when need be, but will actual use be held back by outdated laws and insurance? It could also come down to a situation where only the vehicle manufacturer (or their insurance partner) will insure their own level 4 vehicles and others like Allstate, Geico, etc.. won't touch them?
Bingo
You can't have it both ways my man; either L4 is coming soon and you better get your launch edition ASAP for the free lifetime autonomy perk, or it's not coming for 5+ years so anything related to autonomy doesn't matter that much. You're trying to argue both sides of the coin here.
