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@SEARivian - Plz look at this thread. https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/find-your-rivian-order-number-post-it-here.644/

Folks, Kudos to @skyote for kicking off this thread and to everyone who contributed to the thread with their order #s. @skyote and me had an offline discussion, worked on the data and here are some more insights. Assumption: There will be a 15% attrition on the whole. So we have applied that...

@skyote - Awesome work. I love that we were able to get the pre-order#. Let me know what you need. If we stick with the 30K, then the current burndown chart still seems relevant. Based on the data provided from folks here, we might be able to overlay more accurate order placement times.

Order # 16481 Date : 9/30/2019

I think it will be more of the latter if they are using the same assembly line. I wish they had parallel lines. We do not know enough at this point though as they are still building the lines.

Love the graph @skyote . Is it based on the data I have out or is it some other source ?

135 KWH for me as I need the 3rd row in the R1S :-)

That's true. The first modelling I did was for 10K .....then we assumed in this forum what if the count was 30K. Rivian's lack of publicly stating the #s is making us take an educated guess with the sampling we have. If anyone gets any data on the # of pre-orders, plz post it and we can re-run...

IMHO, 20K per year is decent and will be a great achievement for a new company. I am sure they will do better once they attain a high level of maturity. For the first 6 months, I have put it @ a run rate of 12,500 units per year. If there is guidance from Rivian in the future, I can add it to...

Folks, I updated my simulation to match the new timelines. I also split the R1S and R1T going into production at different times. I have made an assumption that starting August, the production line can do 50% R1S and 50% R1T. The throughput for the first year (2021) is 1142 vehicles per...

That's fine they can use NXP and other suppliers. What I meant by their strategy being toe to to is with respect to this - "The fundamentals of Tesla having such a good ADAS system is because they control all moving, outputs parts using software. There is a device driver for each of these parts...

Reading your reply made me smile. Coz I am in your field as well and I tend to trust the ADAS more :) . I use it for 95% of all my drives even in the inner roads. From what I can see, it does take a lot to get to Level 2 autonomous level. RJ has mentioned that the Rivian vehicles will have Level...

Thanks Mark for the details and how you are deriving the pre-order #. I agree the lack of any information at this point makes it difficult for us to add any accuracy to the calculations, estimations. Lets keep looking out and circle back if we hear anything reported on the progress Rivian is making.

@Coast2Coast - Mark, I placed the order in Q3 of 2019. So, per my modelling, on the 10K orders assumed, I would be getting my vehicle latest by Q1 of 2022 (Sorry, my bad not Q3 as stated earlier). By the way, I would love to know how you came up with 27K as my order #. Would love to include...

Thank you @ElectricTrucking. So I think this will be a factor on how people flock to Rivian as well to take advantage of the tax credit before Amazon eats the pie.

Does the Amazon order of 100,000 EV vans count towards the 200,000 limit for Rivian ? I am hoping that the bulk order doesn't take away the EV tax credit for us.

Good for you. @LeoH Glad you have the option. Since I have a lease and based on how Tesla calculates the residual value (they add the $7500 tax credit to it), it would be like buying a used car 7.5K above the KBB. This time, I will be buying my Model X instead of leasing it. That way, I don't...

I will plan on taking delivery of my Rivian only in late 2023. I have gone ahead and placed a Model X order to move to once my Model S lease is over. Had to do it early to lock on the FSD price. The silence/lack of guidance from Rivian barring the weekly videos is one of the reasons. But I would...

The more I look at these videos the more impatient I get to get my R1S. The practical approach taken by Rivian is the real value add. I was taught 'Patience is a virtue' ....boy oh boy....it's put to the test now ! It's easier if forced to be patient than a choice. .

We can definitely do that Mark (@Coast2Coast). Would love to hear some reactions from the forum members on the suggestion.