If Rivian is able to lease R2 at an exorbitant APR while increasing sales volume, isn't that a positive sign for the company? It shows demand is strong. I get why those lease terms are annoying for the consumer, but they're not a "headwind" for the business.
After nearly 90,000 miles over 3 years and 8 months of ownership, we traded in our 2022 R1S Launch Edition for a 2026 Hyundai Santa Fe Hybrid. Never had any major problems with the Rivian, and our experience with the brand has been great, but we put a lot of miles on our cars and I've been...
Thanks so much for the friendly tip. Are you saying they withdrew the target of 25% gross margin? Or are you just saying that the sh*tshow that was the US EV market over the past four years makes that target no longer realistic in your view? Would love to listen to every single earnings call in...
Here's what the CFO said on an earnings call in August 2022: "I want to reiterate our confidence in our long-term financial targets. We see a clear path to our approximately 25% gross margin target, high-teens [percentage] EBITDA [margin] target and approximately 10% free cash flow [as a...
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Interesting take. If my math is right, then this raise puts cash on hand plus the DOE loan at about $11 B, which should be enough to get through the R3 launch. Hopefully this is the last time Rivian needs to make this type of financing move, but who knows. At current price, the stock is still...
Neither of us is "rationalizing," we're doing something much more fun - trying to predict the future with limited info and lots of uncertainty. Your forecast just happens to have more doom and gloom. Have fun designing Rivian's tombstone!
Risks aplenty for sure. But the sales data over the next 12-18 months will tell us how Rivian's decisions on R2 landed. Americans' taste for EVs has changed, and will continue to change, for the better now that there are more options right around the average selling price of a new ICE vehicle...
There's competition, but I wouldn't call it "very heavy." Tesla and Rivian remain in a class of their own when it comes to hardware/software integration at that price point, and plenty of Americans pay more for a premium product despite cheaper alternatives. See, iPhone.
Rivian hit its promised...
It's risky but I have more optimism. The US market is lagging globally but will continue to grow. It's big enough to get Rivian to positive gross margin on the automotive business within the next 12 months or so, which will be the first big inflection point. Then positive earnings in 2028-29...
Nope. That's what R1S is for. They'll maintain price/feature separation between R1 and R2 for as long as possible (i.e., until their automotive profits have plateaued, which I hope is many, many years from now).
Yes, in fact the "design your R2" webpage now says "summer 2027" for the 44.9k version, so Rivian will start delivering it by August/September next year. I don't expect volumes to be massive, but only because I think most people willing to consider a Rivian at that price point will be willing to...
Infrastructure is growing at a nice clip now. I think the (first) inflection point will be when Rivian reaches positive gross margin on the automotive business (excluding software and services). And that all depends on how fast they can ramp R2 production.
Take the plunge and say goodbye to the Subaru. Our family of five has had EVs since 2018, and only EVs since 2022. The ability to charge at home (overnight for us) is key for daily use. For road trips, the access to Tesla's network should eliminate any range anxiety, and in my experience third...
We couldn't imagine buying another ICE vehicle after getting a Tesla in 2018. Put our deposit down for a R1S in 2019 because we wanted a 3-row BEV and we didn't like the overpriced egg known as the Model X. And we loved the Rivian design. Waited (not so) patiently for 3.5 years until...
Thanks for sharing your experience! We still have our R1S, but last year we added a 2026 Hyundai IONIQ 5 to the family "fleet." It's become my daily driver and I love it. The ride and driving experience are great, as is the build quality. The second row is incredibly roomy. The software...