Expected Deliveries Q2

[Jaburti]

RJ said he's very confident they'll produce 25K units this year. What's your guess for Q2? Q1 ramped up quite nicely from March and onwards but they had significant issues in Jan with COVID and factory was closed for a full week.
If we assume a 25-30% growth rate from March that would mean roughly 350 vehicles per week. 350 x 12 weeks = 4200 vehicles produced.
Seems feasible IMO as along as they have the necessary parts. What do you think?

Deliveries should catch up to production number IMO, as there was approx 1200 vehicle gap between produced vs delivered cars. I am assuming a majority of those vehicles were produced during end of Q1 and were in transit.

What do you think?

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[smiesguy]

It’s seems like it will be another mad rush post earnings call to quarter end, so production will outpace deliveries. I’m thinking more like 3500 produced, 2000 delivered, but I’m just throwing darts. Thinking adding another product line (R1S) to the mix slows them down a bit.

 

[Jaburti]

I sure hope the production and delivery numbers are a lot bigger than that. RJ needs to show they can step up and he needs to prove that the 25k production number for 2022 is realistic.

 

[Guy]

They were running at around 350 a week in March since they made around 1100 vehicles in the three weeks from the Q4 call and the end of the month. I expect at least 4000 R1s in Q2. That would bring them to 6500 for the first half of the year with a remaining 8500 for the second half which would be achieved by maintaining their Q2 rate. If they are sustainably at 350 a week now (as demonstrated by March data) then that leads to 4550 in a quarter. In ramping up R1S, adding colored interiors and the EDV line I can see it being a little less. Stretch goal would be 5000 and that would set to to exceed 15000 for the year - a target I think they planned to exceed when they set it.

 

[Jaburti]

Yes agree. Stock taking a beating. RJ needs to deliver.

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