Headline: FORD SAYS ELECTRIC F-150 LIGHTNING SALES FELL 45.8% IN 3Q SALES

[DuoRivians]

Only 3,503 F150 Lightning sold in Q3

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[vandy1981]

Here's a link covering Ford's Q3 report.

For context, the factory was shut down for retooling for 6 weeks and there was stop sale for models with the rear light bar.

The Lightning is a great truck. It's hard to disentangle the demand component from the production component underlying these sales numbers.

I would caution people against dumping on Ford...softening demand for the lightning could bad news for the segment if it turns out to be a general trend.

 

[DuoRivians]

Here's a link covering Ford's Q3 report.

For context, the factory was shut down for retooling for 6 weeks and there was stop sale for models with the rear light bar.

The Lightning is a great truck. It's hard to disentangle the demand component from the production component underlying these sales numbers.

I would caution people against dumping on Ford...softening demand for the lightning could bad news for the segment if it turns out to be a general trend.

Here’s my thesis: whenever oems offer the same vehicle in an ICE or hybrid version, consumers will overwhelmingly choose those, not the BEV version.

Why? Because the ICE and hybrid versions are $10s of thousands cheaper. Gas cost savings wouldn’t cover the price difference.

This isn’t to say the Lightning EV is a bad car. But, when presented with near-close alternatives that are *that much* cheaper, consumers are overwhelmingly going to choose the cheaper versions. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-04/ev-charging-issues-price-drive-hybrid-car-sales

So while legacy oems will continue to see ice/hybrid versions cannibalize their BEV sales, the pure EV companies like Rivian and Tesla have big opportunities to capture market share.

They sell *only* BEVs; there are no gas alternatives. Consumers’ buying their cars means buying their brand and technology. And because these companies are all-in on BEV, they’ll likely see greater innovation versus their legacy oem peers. Or, they go bankrupt trying.

By my estimates, Rivian sold at least 4,000 R1Ts in Q3. Which is more than Ford’s F150 Lightning in Q3.

For a startup competing against an established player, I’d say Rivian did quite well!

 

[vandy1981]

For a startup competing against an established player, I’d say Rivian did quite well!

Agree completely.

I just wanted to emphasize that it's not a zero sum game amd that a healthy Lightning market only helps the R1T given the low overall market share of BEV pickups.

It will be interesting to see T3, Ford's replacement for the Lightning. It will be a complete fork from the ICE F150s and presumably Ford will apply everything they learned with the Lightning and from competitors to T3.

We'll be hearing about T3 before Ram enters the market, before GM produces their 1st gen at scale, and before the CT launches (I kid on the last one).

 

[Donald Stanfield]

It doesn't really surprise me that legacy auto would have a difficult time capturing marketshare. The things that BEV companies excel at are things that legacy auto struggles with. Stuff like technology. So many people are down on Rivian's software suite but it's leaps and bounds better than Ford's. Making computers with wheels is a different theory than making cars with computers and legacy auto focuses on the latter while EVs are better being the former.

That is honestly why I think they are going to struggle and why they will suffer by comparison to EV only companies like Tesla and Rivian. Maybe when they make cars designed to be BEVs, like the bolt that seems to be doing decently just because of its price point. Even with that though they aren't competing with Tesla or Rivian they are just capturing price sensitive customers that still want an EV which is an important market for sure, but not a direct comparison with something like and R1 which the Lightning IS trying to do.

The Lightning suffers by comparison to an R1T in all ways but room. It's bigger, so if you need the size for any specific reason you might want to go that route. Other than that I'd say the Rivian wins out everywhere else.

 

[DuoRivians]

Agree completely.

I just wanted to emphasize that it's not a zero sum game amd that a healthy Lightning market only helps the R1T given the low overall market share of BEV pickups.

It will be interesting to see T3, Ford's replacement for the Lightning. It will be a complete fork from the ICE F150s and presumably Ford will apply everything they learned with the Lightning and from competitors to T3.

We'll be hearing about T3 before Ram enters the market, before GM produces their 1st gen at scale, and before the CT launches (I kid on the last one).

I think Ford (and other legacy oems) should spin out their EV cars into an entirely separate brand, perhaps like Volvo did with Polestar.

Doing so would help consumers separate cars more clearly. And would give separate brand value to that spin-off.

 

[Trandall]

With Rivian beating Q3 delivery expectations and Ford Lightning deliveries tanking (not to mention the UAW strike) it's making me want to buy more Rivian stock while it's still low. If Rivian can further reduce production costs of the R1 line to where they are profitable in the $73K to $94K range depending on trim I believe the stock price will increase drastically.

 

[Goose]

Dwindling sales has nothing to do with high interest rates and predatory dealerships though right? Every Lightning I've seen remotely close to me is a standard range with a $10-20K ADM. Maybe this will light the fire under Ford to take action against dealers with ADM's.

 

[SDH]

Here’s my thesis: whenever oems offer the same vehicle in an ICE or hybrid version, consumers will overwhelmingly choose those, not the BEV version.

Why? Because the ICE and hybrid versions are $10s of thousands cheaper. Gas cost savings wouldn’t cover the price difference.

This ^

A big chunk of Ford's ICE Truck market base don't have $70k+ to spend on a truck that struggles to do most of what it's cheaper ICE equivalent does.

Rivian R1T and Ford Lightening are two very different markets, with only a small crossover IMO.

 

[Sharpobjects4321]

I think everyone is making great points, I think this was touched on, but I think EV consumers aren't looking for the Ford 150 chassis on top of a battery skateboard, I think ultimately thats what went wrong. the what something that looks like a EV, IMO. Also the dealership model is hurting them also.

I think the new Flash was/is a good idea- I think the consumer is telling the producers that 300 miles of range might be the standard for EV trucks and large SUVs

 

[teartags]

I think Ford (and other legacy oems) should spin out their EV cars into an entirely separate brand, perhaps like Volvo did with Polestar.

Doing so would help consumers separate cars more clearly. And would give separate brand value to that spin-off.

I see your point, but what happens when the year that GM (or whomever) has pledged to be 100% EV arrives? Do those legacy brands just disappear?

 

[SDH]

I see your point, but what happens when the year that GM (or whomever) has pledged to be 100% EV arrives? Do those legacy brands just disappear?

personally I think this pure PR BS, especially whilst govt. tax incentives are being handed out like candy. Those incentives are throttling back and govts./car makers are having to get real. UK, case in point.

I bet these car makers (more importantly their shareholders) start to row back. Sure, they'll have a portfolio of EVs to help Greenwash but the reality is that the world ain't ready for a long time.

 

[iansriv]

It doesn't really surprise me that legacy auto would have a difficult time capturing marketshare. The things that BEV companies excel at are things that legacy auto struggles with. Stuff like technology. So many people are down on Rivian's software suite but it's leaps and bounds better than Ford's. Making computers with wheels is a different theory than making cars with computers and legacy auto focuses on the latter while EVs are better being the former.

That is honestly why I think they are going to struggle and why they will suffer by comparison to EV only companies like Tesla and Rivian. Maybe when they make cars designed to be BEVs, like the bolt that seems to be doing decently just because of its price point. Even with that though they aren't competing with Tesla or Rivian they are just capturing price sensitive customers that still want an EV which is an important market for sure, but not a direct comparison with something like and R1 which the Lightning IS trying to do.

The Lightning suffers by comparison to an R1T in all ways but room. It's bigger, so if you need the size for any specific reason you might want to go that route. Other than that I'd say the Rivian wins out everywhere else.

I absolutely agree. A similar issue exists in banking. Large established banks have legacy systems and neo banks beat them out with new systems because they don't have to work around the 1970s software and processes.

 

[virgnia_rivian]

Dwindling sales has nothing to do with high interest rates and predatory dealerships though right? Every Lightning I've seen remotely close to me is a standard range with a $10-20K ADM. Maybe this will light the fire under Ford to take action against dealers with ADM's.

I think ADM and high interest rates are part of the equation. I also think Ford (and their dealers), on some level, might not be marketing the Lightning as much as their ICE F150. If you're a dealer you want to sell as many ICE trucks as possible to keep your service dept. busy. (which could also explain some of the ADM)

I'm also curious about the new F150 Flash that Ford's launch that appears to go after more of the EV customer than the tradiitional F150.
https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/03/ford-launches-new-f-150-lightning-flash/

 

[Goose]

I think ADM and high interest rates are part of the equation. I also think Ford (and their dealers), on some level, might not be marketing the Lightning as much as their ICE F150. If you're a dealer you want to sell as many ICE trucks as possible to keep your service dept. busy. (which could also explain some of the ADM)

I'm also curious about the new F150 Flash that Ford's launch that appears to go after more of the EV customer than the tradiitional F150.
https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/03/ford-launches-new-f-150-lightning-flash/

The Flash trim is just an XLT extended range with the bigger screen.

*edit* to be clear, I think the Lightning is the nearly the perfect truck to sway the EV holdouts. It’s a powerful EV truck that isn’t too polarizing and tech forward. The R1T is the better vehicle (I’ve driven both now), but as someone that grew up rural, people see Rivian’s as douchey

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