Rivian Delivery estimate

[mgc0216]

While Rivian vehicles are awesome, their marketing is straight out of big carmaker playbook: treat customers like mushrooms by keeping them in the dark and feeding them B.S. This leaves us on our own.

Rivian communicated to Wall Street (but not to customers) that pre-orders by end of Q3'21 and Q4'21 were 48,390 and 71,000, respectively. This gives a quarterly order growth rate of 50%. Extrapolating gives the following cumulative orders by quarter end:

Q1'20___Q2'20___Q3'20___Q4'20___Q1'21___Q2'21___Q3'21___Q4'21
4900___7000___10,000___15,000___22,500___33,000__48,400__71,000

There are many guesses that have floated around about pre-order numbers. One was in Feb'21, by Frost & Sullivan of 10,000 pre-orders by end of Q4'20. This is within one quarter of the above 50% order growth formula estimate.

Rivian communicated to Wall Street that in Q1'22 it made about 1,500 vehicles and in 2022 it will make 25,000. That's a quarterly growth rate of about 150%, so the 2022 cumulative production estimate is:

Q1'22___Q2'22___Q3'22___Q4'22
1500___4000___10,000___25,000

Putting the two together:

pre-order in: 2018, 2019___2020___Q1'22___Q2'21-Q4'21
delivery in: _____Q2'22____Q3'22___Q4'22____2023

If shipping 25,000 vehicles is delayed by a quarter, the above delivery estimates are delayed by a quarter.

Comments?

thought: i can post random nonsense on the internet too, but generally choose not to.

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[crcole]

thought: i can post random nonsense on the internet too, but generally choose not to.

Looks like you do post nonsense on the internet; your comment being exactly that

 

[mgc0216]

Looks like you do post nonsense on the internet; your comment being exactly that

that's why i said "generally choose not to" - reading is fundamental

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