Rivian Price Prediction and Forecast Article

[Liverit85]

We have to sell the R1s in order to get there and with how things are going with the Gen 2 issues it could deter some buyers away from Rivian. I know of 3 people across the country who have all canceled their Gen 2 orders and took the 1k loss. Small sample size, but it's usually a representation of whats at play on a larger scale. (Kind of like the mouse/rat analogy, if you see one, you can bet there are a crap tone more.)

Rivian really needs to get rid of the non refundable deposit BS. That's just shady and among the ones that can afford these EVs/wealthy where 1K is nothing to them, it's the basic principle of the matter. One shouldn't have to forcefully buy in just to get some numbers. That is complete BS.

I hope the R1 line sells well, but we can't start partying yet until we know for sure how it plays out through Q3 and more importantly Q4.

I have no doubts about the R2 and R3 if we successfully make it there. Also, pre-orders don't translate to 100% of them buying.

I'm pretty confident that we'll get a good chunk of Model Y owners to opt for the R2, but at the same time the new Model Y refresh "Juniper" will be a tough competitor as it'll be a benchmark status rig for its class, once again.

If you drive a previous gen Model 3 back to back with the new Model 3 "Highland" you'll get a real world glimpse of how great of a car the new Model 3 is. We'll see these carry over to the Juniper.

Going back to pre-orders, it means nothing unless your Tesla who will actually sell a higher than normal % of the actual pre-orders. How many of the R2 orders will convert? Who knows, but I can assure you it won't be 100%, let alone the tall order Rivian has to even get there.




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We have to realize that we're banking on R1 sales right now. Yea, we have the EV Vans and the VW sugar Daddy cash drop, but those have their limits. I think even with crap R1 Q3 and Q4 sales, we'll be saved by the VW sugar cash to keep some money in the bank in order to execute the R2/R3 production. Without it, in my opinion we'd be SOL.

I completely agree with your points. Rivian's strategy with the non-refundable deposit is indeed problematic and could be turning potential customers away. It's a significant amount, and even though it might not mean much to those who can afford these vehicles, it’s more about the principle. Customers shouldn't feel pressured to commit without flexibility.
The Gen 2 issues are another concern. Even a small sample of cancellations can be indicative of a larger trend, and this can hurt Rivian's reputation and sales. The focus needs to be on resolving these issues quickly to restore confidence in the brand.
You're right that pre-orders don't always translate into actual sales, and this is a risky assumption to rely on. Tesla's success in converting pre-orders is not something every company can replicate. The competition with Tesla's new models will be fierce, and Rivian has to ensure their offerings are compelling enough to attract and retain customers.
It's crucial for Rivian to succeed with the R1 line and secure financial stability for future developments. The support from VW is a significant boost, but it can't be the sole safety net. Rivian needs to prove its ability to sell and satisfy customers to ensure long-term success. The upcoming quarters will be critical in determining the company's trajectory.

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[mkhuffman]

Rivian's strategy with the non-refundable deposit is indeed problematic and could be turning potential customers away. It's a significant amount, and even though it might not mean much to those who can afford these vehicles, it’s more about the principle. Customers shouldn't feel pressured to commit without flexibility.

I don't agree. If it is clear the deposit will not be refunded before the person makes the reservation, why is that a problem?

The policy will do two things: 1) it will make it less likely for people to make reservations they are not serious about completing, and 2) it will reduce the liability of potential cancellations and the refunds impact on cash flow. They cannot afford to artificially create negative cash flow. They need to keep all the cash they are given. Legally keep, of course.

People who are complaining about this policy are not taking personal responsibility for their decisions. When I made my R2 reservation, I was pretty sure I would not be taking delivery. But I wanted to give the company my small amount of money and reservation to help them remain viable. I have already written it off. It was a donation. I don't want a refund. It was only $100, and certainly if it were $1000 I might have been more thoughtful. But I don't deserve a refund regardless.

It is the right policy for a company that is bleeding cash. If you don't like it, don't make a reservation.

 

[Electron]

I don't agree. If it is clear the deposit will not be refunded before the person makes the reservation, why is that a problem?

The policy will do two things: 1) it will make it less likely for people to make reservations they are not serious about completing, and 2) it will reduce the liability of potential cancellations and the refunds impact on cash flow. They cannot afford to artificially create negative cash flow. They need to keep all the cash they are given. Legally keep, of course.

People who are complaining about this policy are not taking personal responsibility for their decisions. When I made my R2 reservation, I was pretty sure I would not be taking delivery. But I wanted to give the company my small amount of money and reservation to help them remain viable. I have already written it off. It was a donation. I don't want a refund. It was only $100, and certainly if it were $1000 I might have been more thoughtful. But I don't deserve a refund regardless.

It is the right policy for a company that is bleeding cash. If you don't like it, don't make a reservation.

I think the majority of people will disagree with you and being okay to fork out a non refundable $1000 deposit just to get basic numbers is ludicrous.

Plenty of people who can afford cars at this level don't have a money issue. The whole non refundable deposit is a principle issue, let alone sleazy.

We love Rivian, but it has a crap policy with its non refundable deposit. That really needs to change.

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