Sean
Well-Known Member
- Thread starter
- #1
You can sometimes get key insights when you break a company down into what they might be looking to do next. Trying to present what I see as a close observer and not passing too much judgement on what they should/should not do. Just trying to reflect what I see and possible implications.
People - LinkedIn shows 4122 employees worldwide
~1k in SF
~1k in Detroit
~1k in LA
~500 Illinois
Rest spread out with a few international
-Job postings for field service and related roles.
What does this tell us?
-They have lots of engineers and tech resources.
-Unclear if they have enough plant workers but they won't be going gangbusters early in production and LinkedIn leans towards white-collar jobs so plant workers are likely under-represented
-Chicago, LA, New York are likely the first areas to be targeted for deliveries. Southwest and Northwest are likely next. (I'm in the southeast so this brings me no joy but none of this is surprising)
-I'm not worried about event management and delivery job postings because 1) it doesn't take long to get someone up to speed 2) people can travel
-I am worried about how service coverage will factor into deliveries and ultimately my timeline
Orders/Demand - Launch Edition sold out, Amazon has 10k vans coming, 100k by 2030. Lots of pre-orders with 2022 delivery expectations. Consumers put down $1k so they are very real orders, Amazon runs ads featuring the vans so those are very real too.
What does this tell us?
-Rivian likely has "real" orders to take 100% production capacity through 2022.
-They likely see no need to push marketing to drive that number up. There will be plenty of interest once these get on the road that will drive some amount of future orders.
-My guess is that by the end of 2022 is when you'd see something that resembles typical marketing from them
Investment - They have cash and rumors are an IPO is coming so they're going to get a lot more. Exact number is $8B+ and IPO details are tbd.
What does this tell us?
-They have cash to build out the factory and run for some time. For a startup, they are in great shape here.
-IPO will be interesting in how it gets structured, is it to bring in more cash? Pay out early investors? How much will control will RJ hold onto? Either way there will be some spin. The most positive would be that its to expand. Internationally, additional plants, more models, etc.
Supply/Parts - We know they've aligned themselves well in terms that they took over an existing plant so there are likely suppliers they can lean on close by. Samsung is providing batteries and indicated they can meet demand from Rivian. They are planning factory expansions already in Normal.
What does this tell us?
-They are likely in good shape in the short term and long term with the Normal plant.
-Chips? idk. This is a wildcard but they've had plenty of time to procure a supply for their initial production runs and likely several months out so I'm not concerned in the short term. How this impacts them down the road is hard to say.
Service - A big run of service news over the last 2-3 months. Guides, Warranty, Service, Insurance, Purchasing/Financing, Charging. Still more info to go for all the digital stuff: App, Vehicle UI, Driver+ features.
What does this tell us?
-They want to own the vertical on service. The entire experience of the vehicle is theirs for the taking
-I see Guides as likely a temporary thing to get them over the hump of the first few years of ramping up. Its a great idea for this stage of the company I just don't see how it scales long term. Maybe it turns into a fee based service like OnStar. Free the first year or two, pay a fee to have a Guide after that.
-The fact they have put out such a strong warranty and that they want to own service and insurance shows that they have a lot of confidence in the vehicle.
-This is a big leap, going from manufacturer to entire vehicle experience company and is nothing to take for granted. These are all big bets and likely won't pay off for years. This is super interesting from a strategy standpoint and if they are successful what will it mean for the broader car industry that's totally fragmented?
-They have been touting lots digital capabilities but haven't shown us much in terms of real world use. This is the easiest to change and update through so I'm not sure if they ever will do a lot until deliveries start.
Someone said if Rivian is successful the book they write about them should be titled, "Do All the Hard Things At Once" and I totally agree with this sentiment. They are building a plant, launching three models, becoming a service company, and doing a rumored IPO. This is insane, but I'm into it.
People - LinkedIn shows 4122 employees worldwide
~1k in SF
~1k in Detroit
~1k in LA
~500 Illinois
Rest spread out with a few international
-Job postings for field service and related roles.
What does this tell us?
-They have lots of engineers and tech resources.
-Unclear if they have enough plant workers but they won't be going gangbusters early in production and LinkedIn leans towards white-collar jobs so plant workers are likely under-represented
-Chicago, LA, New York are likely the first areas to be targeted for deliveries. Southwest and Northwest are likely next. (I'm in the southeast so this brings me no joy but none of this is surprising)
-I'm not worried about event management and delivery job postings because 1) it doesn't take long to get someone up to speed 2) people can travel
-I am worried about how service coverage will factor into deliveries and ultimately my timeline
Orders/Demand - Launch Edition sold out, Amazon has 10k vans coming, 100k by 2030. Lots of pre-orders with 2022 delivery expectations. Consumers put down $1k so they are very real orders, Amazon runs ads featuring the vans so those are very real too.
What does this tell us?
-Rivian likely has "real" orders to take 100% production capacity through 2022.
-They likely see no need to push marketing to drive that number up. There will be plenty of interest once these get on the road that will drive some amount of future orders.
-My guess is that by the end of 2022 is when you'd see something that resembles typical marketing from them
Investment - They have cash and rumors are an IPO is coming so they're going to get a lot more. Exact number is $8B+ and IPO details are tbd.
What does this tell us?
-They have cash to build out the factory and run for some time. For a startup, they are in great shape here.
-IPO will be interesting in how it gets structured, is it to bring in more cash? Pay out early investors? How much will control will RJ hold onto? Either way there will be some spin. The most positive would be that its to expand. Internationally, additional plants, more models, etc.
Supply/Parts - We know they've aligned themselves well in terms that they took over an existing plant so there are likely suppliers they can lean on close by. Samsung is providing batteries and indicated they can meet demand from Rivian. They are planning factory expansions already in Normal.
What does this tell us?
-They are likely in good shape in the short term and long term with the Normal plant.
-Chips? idk. This is a wildcard but they've had plenty of time to procure a supply for their initial production runs and likely several months out so I'm not concerned in the short term. How this impacts them down the road is hard to say.
Service - A big run of service news over the last 2-3 months. Guides, Warranty, Service, Insurance, Purchasing/Financing, Charging. Still more info to go for all the digital stuff: App, Vehicle UI, Driver+ features.
What does this tell us?
-They want to own the vertical on service. The entire experience of the vehicle is theirs for the taking
-I see Guides as likely a temporary thing to get them over the hump of the first few years of ramping up. Its a great idea for this stage of the company I just don't see how it scales long term. Maybe it turns into a fee based service like OnStar. Free the first year or two, pay a fee to have a Guide after that.
-The fact they have put out such a strong warranty and that they want to own service and insurance shows that they have a lot of confidence in the vehicle.
-This is a big leap, going from manufacturer to entire vehicle experience company and is nothing to take for granted. These are all big bets and likely won't pay off for years. This is super interesting from a strategy standpoint and if they are successful what will it mean for the broader car industry that's totally fragmented?
-They have been touting lots digital capabilities but haven't shown us much in terms of real world use. This is the easiest to change and update through so I'm not sure if they ever will do a lot until deliveries start.
Someone said if Rivian is successful the book they write about them should be titled, "Do All the Hard Things At Once" and I totally agree with this sentiment. They are building a plant, launching three models, becoming a service company, and doing a rumored IPO. This is insane, but I'm into it.
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