Prediction on March 10th?

[fotoflux]

Less than 200, by a lot. Probably another 1000 produced since 2021

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[mwexler2]

Are you asking about peak production rate or average. I suspect they will have reached 200/day on at least 1 day, but they don’t have enough supplies to do that everyday.

 

[Forager]

Other manufacturers have dealt with shortages by making typical standard features an option, and discounting the base price accordingly. Unfortunately, Rivian’s manufacturing process is likely not sophisticated enough to handle this at present, which is one reason their options list is parred down so much.

 

[the long way downunder]

I agree with the comments on quality as the priority.
I'd still like to see 200/wk.
I'd still like to see Rivian offer to OTA a beta of tank turn and remote control from the app.
It's a big product and units/week is only one metric.
But it doesn't matter. Rivian is not in control of $RIVN.
The USA rattles a nuclear saber at Russia, the EU plays along, and the whole world loses billions.
Madness.

 

[AllInev]

If Rivian announces an R1 production rate of 200 or less per week, it seems likely there is some kind of fundamental/systemic production problem.

Since the first production R1T left the floor in late Sept, they've had Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, and most of February to ramp up. A reported rate of <= 200/week would be really, really, bad news.

Perhaps the R1 design in just inherently difficult to produce at Rivian's target production rates? It's an awesome design and results in extremely capable vehicles, but perhaps it's just a bear to build quickly? Supply chain problems can explain away only so much.

*IF* the R1s are just too damn difficult to build at high rates, Rivian needs to pivot quickly to plan B. I hope they have a plan B.

Let's cross our fingers and hope for being pleasantly surprised by higher-than-expected R1 production numbers.

 

[AllInev]

Seems unlikely they’ll do that given statements from RJ Scaringe hisself like “These products are really our handshake with the world as a brand”


There is only one chance at quality.

Me to RJ, "Can you please let go of my hand, I need to go pickup my truck."

 

[AllInev]

I predict that on March 10th, I will have reserved a VW ID Buzz.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/43455/vw-id-buzz-california-camper-van-is-happening

The one I want (the "ID California") sadly won't ship for years. Otherwise, I'd seriously consider one.

 

[AllInev]

To those who voted over 200/week, if Rivian is really at 200/week doesn’t that basically mean they are completing screwing reservation holders by delaying deliveries and prioritizing employees.
Not sure what’s worse at this point - Rivian can’t scale build 200/week or that it is at 200/week but apparently delivering less than 10% to non-employee customers.

IMO, "Rivian can’t scale build 200/week" way worse. Less than 200/week is extremely bad news for reservation holders, Rivian, and Rivian investors. Extremely bad news. I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

 

[SANZC02]

IMO, "Rivian can’t scale build 200/week" way worse. Less than 200/week is extremely bad news for reservation holders, Rivian, and Rivian investors. Extremely bad news. I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

Not sure why you would think that, Tesla averaged 98 a week in their first 6 months of the Model S in 2012 with no global supply chain issues.

Rivian is only half way through their 2nd quarter Battling the biggest global pandemic in 100 years.

 

[Rivian_Hugh_III]

Not sure why you would think that, Tesla averaged 98 a week in their first 6 months of the Model S in 2012 with no global supply chain issues.

Rivian is only half way through their 2nd quarter Battling the biggest global pandemic in 100 years.

March will be five months, and to be fair Rivian had been revving up for 6 months before last November, so that counts as 11 months.

Parts shortages are fair game. A slow ramp is fair game. Can't figure out how to put them together faster is a flag on the play.

I'll be happy if they say they have 200/wk bursts that are otherwise constrained by unavailable parts.

 

[SANZC02]

March will be five months, and to be fair Rivian had been revving up for 6 months before last November, so that counts as 11 months.

Parts shortages are fair game. A slow ramp is fair game. Can't figure out how to put them together faster is a flag on the play.

I'll be happy if they say they have 200/wk bursts that are otherwise constrained by unavailable parts.

Ok, so if I understand what you are saying, you think I should be comparing when Tesla started actual deliveries to when Rivian started testing their line….

??…. I’ll just go talk to my wife’s pups…. Carry on.

 

[Rivian_Hugh_III]

Ok, so if I understand what you are saying, you think I should be comparing when Tesla started actual deliveries to when Rivian started testing their line….

??…. I’ll just go talk to my wife’s pups…. Carry on.

No meanie, what I’m saying is Rivian pushed the start date back so many times they had more of a head start than Tesla. You can disagree, but your dismissive tone is unappreciated.

say hi to the pups for me

 

[Sdvictor]

The USA rattles a nuclear saber at Russia, the EU plays along, and the whole world loses billions.
Madness.

No so much saber rattling from the US as much as it's a scream for help from the democratically elected leadership in Ukraine who wants to be more European. That said, Russia's actions; and the EU and UK imposing sanctions probably has more effect than anything the US is doing (for now).

As of this moment, since Russia is insignificant in terms of Supply Chain, manufacturing and economic importance; it shouldn't impact deliveries. Now if China makes move on Taiwan, then all bets are off...

 

[SANZC02]

As of this moment, since Russia is insignificant in terms of Supply Chain, manufacturing and economic importance; it shouldn't impact deliveries. Now if China makes move on Taiwan, then all bets are off...

Although there is this….

 

[Sdvictor]

Although there is this….

Good point. Raw materials like that wouldn't impact this year. Now, 50-70 weeks out; it'll be a spot/market pricing problem without a 2nd source.

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