Rivian Q2 Deliveries Beats Estimates. Raises Delivery Guidance For Fully Year 2026

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

As opposed to Aptera? (I live six houses down from the CEO). They have $75 million in cash, are burning through $10 million a month, and shipping starts in December.

And people think RIvian needs to worry?

Agree. Context is good.

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[BigSkies]

This is very encouraging and not to be a wet blanket, but:
A) the stock is up 8% or $2b mkt cap which is pretty darn positive for an announcement that says current year revenue will rise by around $200m and GM increase of less than $20m so that is a pretty darn good bump especially given that...
B) Rivian is worth about 50% of what Ford is worth so there is already a very significant upside built in here. Going from unprofitable 60k units a year to a profitable 2.2 million vehicles a year (1/2 of Ford) is a reasonably tough hill to climb and the stock price already assumes that is totally going to happen (or an economic equivalent).

While I like the approach of comparing to established companies, there's a big component you're missing.

Gross margins for the EV-only companies are significantly higher than gross margins for established automakers. Tesla is running a 17-18% gross margin. I think it's believable that Rivian can match these numbers at scale.

Ford and GM typically run around half of that, with even lower numbers in the last year.

Back-of-the envelope math says that Rivian can be roughly as profitable as established automakers with roughly half the revenue. (a very ballpark estimate)

 

[TexasBob]

While I like the approach of comparing to established companies, there's a big component you're missing.

Gross margins for the EV-only companies are significantly higher than gross margins for established automakers. Tesla is running a 17-18% gross margin. I think it's believable that Rivian can match these numbers at scale.

Ford and GM typically run around half of that, with even lower numbers in the last year.

Back-of-the envelope math says that Rivian can be roughly as profitable as established automakers with roughly half the revenue. (a very ballpark estimate)

If you grant the GM difference as persistent and sustainable (op margin for Tesla is below Ford) the numbers just shift to a 1.1 million vehicle a year with those sort of margins. No matter how you slice it I think Rivian is well valued for its current state. The fundamentals valuation says modest upside for awhile as the gap between realty and promise narrows. My 2c.

 

[virgnia_rivian]

Not sure there is going to much info in the Q2 call, 3 weeks of limited R2 data isn’t enough to see a trend.

The call I’m more interested in will be the Q4 call with 6 months of R2 data behind them. We also should get a good update on the Georgia plant then as there should be decent construction progress if it is coming online in 2028.

They likely aren’t going to provide numbers, but they will tell investors how the reservations are converting. Rivian knows this is a big deal and if it’s going well, they will say something. We’ll get a much better idea come Q3/Q4. The fact that they raised production guidance tells us they anticipate a good second half.

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