R1T & R1S Updated Pricing, Configuration, Specs. Dual Motor Now Available

[Trandall]

I think we'll know the number of pre-orders that were shaken out at the 21Q4 earnings on 3/10. I'm guessing the number of cancelled pre-orders is in the dozens or hundreds.

This is waaay off. I have literally seen screengrabs of dozens of cancelation in the past 24 hours just browsing forums in my spare time! Do you really think the overwhelming majority of people who voted in online polls are lying? Keep in mind the majority of early reservation holders will not cancel until contractually obligated, ie. they must sign delivery papers. I would be shocked if this change doesn't lead to at least 30% attrition or about 25K cancelations and wouldn't be shocked if it was close to 50K.... "dozens" shaking my head.

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[Tomgriff]

There's no "sham" evident … pricing was adjusted and is in line with the market. Rivian has gone years without updating to keep pace with the market and it's just another example of their communications problems.
A Nov '18 R1T LE should be being built this quarter. You might want to call and find out.

I'm not sure I buy into this being a sham either - we don't know enough to say but it certainly could be a sham. If they were adjusting for inflation, they should have been doing it all along in increments. The adjustment makes sense compared to when the prices were developed (although crappy to do it all at once). But one could have made a reservation last month, put down $1,000 and see a 15-20% increase in one month, that does not equate to 20% inflation so there was clearly some disingenuousness to the claimed pricing. They had to have known for sometime that prices had to go up. I'm sure that an incremental increase over time would have been palatable for many people and it would have been transparent. I'm also sure they knew they need to "rip the band-aid off" and increase prices some time ago. At best afraid they were afraid to do it and at worst they always intended to wait until real deliveries started.

 

[SeaGeo]

This is waaay off. I have literally seen screengrabs of dozens of cancelation in the past 24 hours just browsing forums in my spare time! Do you really think the overwhelming majority of people who voted in online polls are lying? Keep in mind the majority of early reservation holders will not cancel until contractually obligated, ie. they must sign delivery papers. I would be shocked if this change doesn't lead to at least 30% attrition or about 25K cancelations and wouldn't be shocked if it was close to 50K.... "dozens" shaking my head.

I'm just glad I wasn't drinking anything when I read that. I have yet to talk to *any* normal human who I know who either has shown interest, or had heard of my interest in Rivian who has any interest in the company anymore. We have all talked about the forums being skewed positive and nerdy for Rivian. The polls on *every* site are absolutely terrible. Shit, The reddit poll has 10% of a not tiny sample size saying they're keeping their configuration. The ~30% retention or whatever this site's poll shows is on the high end of the different sites I've checked.

I legitimately can't recall such an immediate bloodbath of a company's perception. It's basically 24 hours.

 

[SANZC02]

I’m guilty blame me….

There was a poll last summer asking if the price went up would you still buy. I responded yes, my comment was looking around it would still be a decent deal if it went up 10-15%…. Mine went up 16%….

I think the way it was done really will be painful for many in on that decision. Waiting until the employee deliveries were done, sending out a generic email from “The Rivian Team” instead of RJ, not granting any discount to the long time reservation holders. It is all a horrible way to try to garner brand loyalty for a startup.

Many people thought the LE pre-orders should have been excluded, not sure that would work. Maybe 5k to 10k of the 71k+ reservations are LE, that would have stung more. I think they should have offered discounts for long term reservations maybe something like .3% per month reserved, that would be 3.6% per year, they would still get higher prices but would be gradual and show value to the preorders. I’m sure that was what the DSP was supposed to do but did not take the sting out of this.

I’m still in but pretty disappointed in how they chose to handle this.

Still surprised they did not get a message out from RJ today but then again, horse was stolen, no reason to lock the barn now.

 

[RDB]

 

[SeaGeo]

There's no "sham" evident … pricing was adjusted and is in line with the market. Rivian has gone years without updating to keep pace with the market and it's just another example of their communications problems.
A Nov '18 R1T LE should be being built this quarter. You might want to call and find out.

The information disclosed by Laura strongly suggests that they knew that they needed to raise prices prior to their IPO, and chose not to disclose that. The resulting increase wasn't 5 or 10%. It's enough to significant harm their backlog of orders, perception, and valuation and if it occurred prior to the IPO would have resulted in a different valuation. That's the definition of a sham.

 

[ads75]

I think we'll know the number of pre-orders that were shaken out at the 21Q4 earnings on 3/10. I'm guessing the number of cancelled pre-orders is in the dozens or hundreds.

I think it would be more interesting to hear if they say they had X amount of reservations on what day, before or after March 1. I would guess they will use a day prior to March 1.

 

[paariv]

Rivian just lost me to Ford. @SeaGeo too I believe. So you are very out of touch. I can't believe I haven't ignored you yet.

Technically, he’s right - Rivian can’t make cars fast, so it’ll sell everything it makes for the next year given demand even at the new price. A silly, narrow point to make, of course.

 

[SeaGeo]

Technically, he’s right - Rivian can’t make cars fast, so it’ll sell everything it makes for the next year given demand even at the new price. A silly, narrow point to make, of course.

Yeah, that's what I assumed he was implying as well. I would be *really* curious what they're seeing, because I suspect it's a 50+% loss rate, or will be within on week.

 

[paariv]

There's no "sham" evident … pricing was adjusted and is in line with the market. Rivian has gone years without updating to keep pace with the market and it's just another example of their communications problems.
A Nov '18 R1T LE should be being built this quarter. You might want to call and find out.

You’re being an ass. Dropping this bomb out of the blue is a drastic move, in the works for a while, and one that should have been publicly discussed much earlier, perhaps in tandem with an admission that they didn’t actually produce customer vehicles until this year, and that the early “production” deliveries were an employee beta.

Any term that characterizes this course of events as dishonest is on the nose.

 

[thrill]

Yeah, that's what I assumed he was implying as well. I would be *really* curious what they're seeing, because I suspect it's a 50+% loss rate, or will be within on week.

I'd think it's a significant number and would fall under SEC requirements for reporting.

Edit: Found it. A Form 8-K is supposed to be filed within 4 days of a "significant event".

 

[SeaGeo]

Even losing 70%, filling that in 2022 would be at the top end of my guess at their yearly number. 30% of the 70k preorders, 21k. That's being generous.

My guess is they lose 60% and project a saturated production through 2023. Counting current orders and projected new orders. With the production ramp not going as planned, my guess is around 15k vehicles this year.

It's really dependent on the ramp not going as planned. We'll see what RJ says on the 10th. It looked to me like they were holding a hell of a lot of trucks in a parking lot for the software update and to delay sending them till this announcement.

 

[ERguy]

It's really dependent on the ramp not going as planned. We'll see what RJ says on the 10th. It looked to me like they were holding a hell of a lot of trucks in a parking lot for the software update and to delay sending them till this announcement.

If they intentionally delayed delivering the trucks parked in the lot until they could implement this price increase, that's pretty shady.

I guess I wouldn't put anything past Rivian at this point, but the thought of holding a vehicle on the lot until the price increase really seems like a new low.

 

[Trandall]

I'm still a bit dumbfounded by the execution of this price hike, I guess I'm naive.
A few thoughts crossed my mind.

• I'm sad that the Rivian community that has emerged largely during a pandemic will likely be diminished.
• With not only the price changes but also configurations and options so much of what we have discussed ad nauseum now needs to be re-evaluated.
• Non LE max pack preorders can actually reconfigure into a cheaper configuration with a much sooner delivery timeframe. Thought it was an funny quirk that one poster noted his price went down with quicker delivery, albeit with less range.
• I guess this will put an end to the debate we once had as to weather or not early deliveries would be able to flip for a quick $20K profit... hint they can.

So far I have reached out to CS via phone, chat and email. Amongst my ramblings were specific questions to which I am expecting responses. I will continue to contact Rivian and press for answers, my next communication will be to RJ and the chief growth officer.

 

[eggpaul]

"I can capture your voice" one of many robotic responses CS surely has in front of them. Ugh, why haven't I canceled yet.

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