Many of you are mistaking how to think about the order queue...

[Bluewave1700]

I continually am reading threads where people are implying b/c they are order # ~60,000 that given the 15k R1s being produced this year, they won't expect a vehicle until deep into 2023/2024. This is just so incorrect. I am taking my rough order # for the below example (Ordered in November of 2021, based on public commentary in earnings calls and disclosure from filings that is roughly ~60,000).

The factors you need to consider are:

Most people w/ pre-orders have orders for F-150s, other trucks, other options, etc. And a $1,000 fully-refundable deposit is very different then spending $90k after-tax on a vehicle. People's financial situation change...

They are only delivering Launch Editions / Adventure that are large pack first

They are delivering almost entirely R1Ts


Given the above, I believe if they can build only ~15k R1Ts, order # 60,000 for example would get their vehicle. So I actually think an Oct-Dec delivery window for someone w/ order # 60,000 isn't that crazy given guidance is for 15k R1 production this year and they definitely are sandbagging that guidance to beat wall street estimates

Order Date	Nov-21​
Rough Order #	60,000​
Conversion Rate	60%​
Total Vehicles to Deliver	36,000​
% LE/Adventure / Large	70%​
First Vehicles Built	25,200​
% R1T	60%​
Number of R1Ts	15,120​

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[NY_Rob]

You are order number 60K (your example) and you think you have a chance of seeing your Rivian this year? Please let us know when that happens....

Trust me, I'd like to buy in on your dream because I placed my R1T order Sept 30th 2021 when Rivian had 48,390 R1T/R1S pre-orders and am scheduled for Oct-Dec 2022 delivery. Even with 12K less vehicles ahead of me than your 60K order queue example, I'm skeptical of a 2022 delivery.

 

[Bluewave1700]

What is wrong about the above table? Seems very straightforward... they are only delivering R1Ts for the most part (will be 80%+ this year R1Ts), the split between the two is ~50/50 based on 1,000+ sample size, also only delivering Adventure/Large combination, and the conversion rate on pre-orders to actual delivery / full payment is going to be alot closer to 50% than 100%... math seems simple

 

[Rhidan]

they are only delivering R1Ts for the most part (will be 80%+ this year R1Ts), the split between the two is ~50/50 based on 1,000+ sample size, also only delivering Adventure/Large combination, and the conversion rate on pre-orders to actual delivery / full payment is going to be alot closer to 50% than 100%... math seems simple

These seem like some wild assumptions. Did you receive a delivery window? I suspect that would be your best indicator of when to expect delivery.

 

[Bluewave1700]

Yeah October-December 2022. Don't think they are wild assumptions. The R1T/R1S split is a fact (~55%/45%), and historic new car conversion on 80k+ vehicles is close to 50% (TSLA figures which have been made public)

 

[moosehead]

60% conversion on pre March 1, 2022 orders? NFW.

A November 2021 order being delivered this year? Bwaaahaaahaaahaa.

Rivian sandbagging vs overpromising and underdelivering? Priceless.

 

[Bluewave1700]

What % of pre-2022 pre-orders also had F150 lightning pre-orders? Ford delivering 15,000+ Lightning's this year... one example of why conversion rate could be 50-70%

 

[moosehead]

What % of pre-2022 pre-orders also had F150 lightning pre-orders? Ford delivering 15,000+ Lightning's this year... one example of why conversion rate could be 50-70%

Even if one owns a fleet of trucks/EV's/SUV's, if they cancel a pre March 2022 Rivian order, they will fail the stupid test.

 

[MountainBikeDude]

I continually am reading threads where people are implying b/c they are order # ~60,000 that given the 15k R1s being produced this year, they won't expect a vehicle until deep into 2023/2024. This is just so incorrect. I am taking my rough order # for the below example (Ordered in November of 2021, based on public commentary in earnings calls and disclosure from filings that is roughly ~60,000).

The factors you need to consider are:

Most people w/ pre-orders have orders for F-150s, other trucks, other options, etc. And a $1,000 fully-refundable deposit is very different then spending $90k after-tax on a vehicle. People's financial situation change...

They are only delivering Launch Editions / Adventure that are large pack first

They are delivering almost entirely R1Ts


Given the above, I believe if they can build only ~15k R1Ts, order # 60,000 for example would get their vehicle. So I actually think an Oct-Dec delivery window for someone w/ order # 60,000 isn't that crazy given guidance is for 15k R1 production this year and they definitely are sandbagging that guidance to beat wall street estimates

Order Date	Nov-21​
Rough Order #	60,000​
Conversion Rate	60%​
Total Vehicles to Deliver	36,000​
% LE/Adventure / Large	70%​
First Vehicles Built	25,200​
% R1T	60%​
Number of R1Ts	15,120​

	​
	​

Technically he is correct. He can take delivery this year....

Just head on over to Cars and Bids! hehehehe.
https://carsandbids.com/auctions/3q...ng_alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=button
Aside from that, your chart is assumption central. I wish you luck on getting it s00n, but don't hold your breath.

 

[stickyfingers]

What % of pre-2022 pre-orders also had F150 lightning pre-orders? Ford delivering 15,000+ Lightning's this year... one example of why conversion rate could be 50-70%

My order # is 11,671 and I don't have a delivery window outside of it's sometime in 2022. Adventure Build and pretty standard everything. I'd be pretty pissed if you get your truck before me.
Having said that, I am in Canada, so you'll probably get yours before me anyways. it's only been a 3 yr wait.

But your table does have some wild assumptions.

 

[Scott]

A few things:
- I think conversion rates on pre 3/1 orders will be higher than that because of the ability to flip them. All of those orders are roughly 15k below MSRP. Even with taxes and such, there is money to be made.
-R1S will start delivering soon, during the back half of the year (after production is ramped more) there will be more R1S. You are assuming near 0 R1S in that 15k. I am guessing it will be closer to 3 to 5k

 

[Bluewave1700]

If people are taking delivery and flipping vehicles, don't you think likely the buyers have pre-order situations with windows in late 2022, and therefor could be some cannibalizations in the queue (someone takes delivery, flips it to a buyer who wants the truck ASAP, but if so interested in RIVN and paying high price clearly is informed and probably had a pre-order reservation which will then be cancelled)?

 

[Max]

60% conversion on pre March 1, 2022 orders? NFW.

I agree. I am one of the people OP referred to (hold CT. F150 and Silverado reservations). I also consider R1 a very expensive vehicle (much more than anything I have purchased in the past). Silverado and CT are not anywhere in sight and I don’t see them being a better deal than R1 Pre-March prices. The only F150 that I consider is Pro. I am a first day reservation holder and on the first round Ford said we were just kidding. Pro is really not for sale. We just put it there to make us look competitive. So until 2025 R1 seem to be my best choice when it comes to inefficient vehicles. Of course if I wanted to chose a more sensible EV, there may be other options. On top of that, like most reservation holders I am Pre March 1. So if I was uncertain before, now that I think I am getting a deal, I am much more likely to go through with it. With R1S selling at $150K, I can’t see anything close to 60% OP is hoping for.

 

[toade]

What is wrong about the above table? Seems very straightforward... they are only delivering R1Ts for the most part (will be 80%+ this year R1Ts), the split between the two is ~50/50 based on 1,000+ sample size, also only delivering Adventure/Large combination, and the conversion rate on pre-orders to actual delivery / full payment is going to be alot closer to 50% than 100%... math seems simple

Didn't Rivian say they'll only be able to build 25,000 vehicles this year? Total. 10k vans, 10k R1Ts and 5k R1Ss? Gotta think the vast majority of those 15k are launch editions. How are they getting to your order?

Are you saying launch editions don't count towards their 15k estimate??

 

[MountainBikeDude]

Even if one owns a fleet of trucks/EV's/SUV's, if they cancel a pre March 2022 Rivian order, they will fail the stupid test.

Technically they would pass the stupid test with flying colours no?

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