Latest VIN check R1T. What is the real production rate...

[Mark_AZR1T]

They don't have the capacity to make that many R1Ts at their factory. Total theoretical capacity is 200k between the R1 (T&S) and the EDV.

Exactly........the math is simple. At the current cost basis and capacity of the factory, they cannot make a dime........

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[jjwolf120]

Exactly........the math is simple. At the current cost basis and capacity of the factory, they cannot make a dime........

Show your work.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

Show your work.

Rivian won't share the current cost to build the R1T or R1S, nor have they shared it in any shareholder presentation that I have seen. When pressed what have they said?

1. "We won't be profitable for the foreseeable future".
2. "The supply chain continues to be problematic for profitability"
3. "Raised prices across the board"
4. "Cancelled entry level version"
5. "Immediately committed to Georgia factory at $5B+ for capacity"


What aren't they saying and what can we deduce?

1. They aren't saying anything.
2. The vehicles are grossly under supported in the field as evidenced by this forum alone. Imagine 1200 vehicles a week. That's a cash flow issue.
3. If Tesla Fremont roughly breaks even at 1221 cars off the line per day with a far more efficient build and cost basis, what makes us think anything would be different at Rivian?
4. Max Pack (no word). Probably not profitable in any scenario for the foreseeable future...
5, 6, 7, 8.......

If Rivian doesn't survive (my opinion is at least 50-50), then Apple or similar will pick them up and life will go on for all of us who own one. All my opinion of course, but if it walks like a duck.......

 

[mini2nut]

Manufacturing 65-70 trucks per day is painfully slow.

I fully understand the supply chain issues are keeping production from scaling up. I really want Rivian to survive and become a leading BEV brand for off-road/adventure enthusiasts.

 

[SANZC02]

Rivian won't share the current cost to build the R1T or R1S, nor have they shared it in any shareholder presentation that I have seen. When pressed what have they said?

1. "We won't be profitable for the foreseeable future".
2. "The supply chain continues to be problematic for profitability"
3. "Raised prices across the board"
4. "Cancelled entry level version"
5. "Immediately committed to Georgia factory at $5B+ for capacity"


What aren't they saying and what can we deduce?

1. They aren't saying anything.
2. The vehicles are grossly under supported in the field as evidenced by this forum alone. Imagine 1200 vehicles a week. That's a cash flow issue.
3. If Tesla Fremont roughly breaks even at 1221 cars off the line per day with a far more efficient build and cost basis, what makes us think anything would be different at Rivian?
4. Max Pack (no word). Probably not profitable in any scenario for the foreseeable future...
5, 6, 7, 8.......

If Rivian doesn't survive (my opinion is at least 50-50), then Apple or similar will pick them up and life will go on for all of us who own one. All my opinion of course, but if it walks like a duck.......

Before you start nailing the cover on that coffin just a couple of things to think about.

Tesla started in July/2003, they did not have a profitable quarter until q1/2013 but that was because of regulatory credits. They did not have a truly profitable quarter until q2/2021.

Tesla did not have their first profitable year until 2020 17 years after it started and that was only because of the sales of regulatory credits.

Rivian is ahead of Tesla in deliveries so far based on the initial quarter deliveries between the Model S and R1T, Rivian did not deliver the first vehicle until September 2021, Tesla June 2012. If Rivian hits their 25k this year it will have delivered nearly 26k by the end of its first full year, Tesla had an additional 4 months in production and delivered a total of 25,177 by the end of their first year.

Tesla did not exceed 75k vehicles a year until 2016 3rd full year after they started delivering the Model S.

Tesla had trouble getting funding but had no competition and no supply chain issues. Let’s allow Rivian, who is very well funded, at least a couple of full years in production before pulling the plug on them.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

Before you start nailing the cover on that coffin just a couple of things to think about.....

Tesla did not exceed 75k vehicles a year until 2016 3rd full year after they started delivering the Model S.

Tesla had trouble getting funding but had no competition and no supply chain issues. Let’s allow Rivian, who is very well funded, at least a couple of full years in production before pulling the plug on them.

I'm all in on Rivian (max stock purchase), love the truck and the idea....and I hope for the best....It's just a difficult business model and Tesla like you said had no competitors and had to pioneer an entirely new industry......Rivian isn't going to be afforded the same headstart......

Anyway.....I'm VIN 17xx and my truck has been nearly flawless............

 

[Craigins]

They don't have the capacity to make that many R1Ts at their factory. Total theoretical capacity is 200k between the R1 (T&S) and the EDV.

Currently it is 150k total. 65k R1 line 85k EDV line. In the S1 they were not projecting to reach full capacity until the end of FY23.

They were looking into installing additional capacity to boost the plant to 200k. Not sure where that effort is at this point.

I believe they aren't expecting to be profitable until the next plant is operational.

 

[mini2nut]

People forget that Tesla was one fiscal quarter away from bankruptcy in 2018. I bought shares in the company that year. It turned out to be an amazing investment.

 

[Aka_Buck]

Hmm, I’m 108xx and 8 has not unlocked yet.

Same. In the 10800 and no unlock. Los angeles area

 

[SANZC02]

People forget that Tesla was one fiscal quarter away from bankruptcy in 2018. I bought shares in the company that year. It turned out to be an amazing investment.

Lightening won’t strike twice there.

In Jan/2020 based on the latest stock split their stock was trading at 31.88. It closed down today at 277 but that is still an insane 8.7x increase in 2.7 years.

Not sure you will see that again for any company.

 

[mini2nut]

Tesla will have numerous new product releases next year. I predict it will be a great year for the stock with all of the new factories scaling up.

 

[SANZC02]

Tesla will have numerous new product releases next year. I predict it will be a great year for the stock with all of the new factories scaling up.

I was not talking about Tesla specifically but any stock going up 8.7X in that short of a timeline is 1 in a million.

I think a lot of the Tesla future factories and releases are already baked into the price.

Their P/E is starting to get more realistic but still very high at 101. Not sure how high Tesla P/E has been, I know at one point it was 333. Considering most car companies are well under 20 and most tech companies are under 40 it is still pretty high.

I own a Model S and their Power-wall so not that I am not a customer just have a hard time trying to make a case to buy their stock, clearly a missed opportunity from the past on my part.

 

[tonys]

Same. In the 10800 and no unlock. Los angeles area

I am 108xx and no unlock also.

 

[Honorz]

Originally had a VIN assigned to me 8/1 89XX. I backed out of the color. Picked up a truck from the shop yesterday 8/30 with VIN 11,0XX.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Currently it is 150k total. 65k R1 line 85k EDV line. In the S1 they were not projecting to reach full capacity until the end of FY23.

They were looking into installing additional capacity to boost the plant to 200k. Not sure where that effort is at this point.

I believe they aren't expecting to be profitable until the next plant is operational.

Reading between the lines, they plan to be at least cash flow positive (if not profitable) by the end of 2025 even if they haven't said it directly. They have said that they have enough money to get them through 2025 with construction and ramp of the new facility AND they have said that they do not expect to have to issue more stock to raise revenue.

I think we have a tendency to focus purely on the R1 line when it comes to profitability (because that's what we are focused on and its sexy) and ignore the role that the EDV and FleetOS side of the house will play in providing positive cashflow between now and when the R2 line starts cranking out. In my opinion, the R2 line is about going mainstream for the public but the path to positive cashflow lies in meeting their commitment to Amazon so that they can start selling versions of the EDV to other customers in the form of work vans and other last mile delivery applications.

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