Rivian Hits 25,000 Vehicle Production Goal For 2022!

[Yossarian]

Very good news indeed. Next up: doubling that number?

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[Yellow Buddy]

As a shareholder, I’m happy.

As a member of the Rivian community, my condolences to those who take delivery of vehicles 24,500-25,000.

 

[TxBeachRivian]

I feel like some overtime dollars may have been flowing out the door recently. But at least they made it!

Yeah. I know they had some folks from the service centers spend several weeks there for a decent bonus to meet the production numbers. May be why some service appointments are out in time now.

 

[Craigins]

Now I can't wait for analysts to say Rivian's 2023 production target is 150k vehicles.

 

[Guy]

Now I can't wait for analysts to say Rivian's 2023 production target is 150k vehicles.

It should be at least 75k since Q4 will be 10.5k and that includes around 4000 for December which gets you to 48k with no further improvements (third shift, second shift improving, other efficiencies etc).
Someone earlier asked for the breakdown. Doubt Rivian will say but from the VIN discussion on here it sounds like around 18k for the T, 3k for the S and then to get to 25k would leave 4k EDV.

 

[Craigins]

It should be at least 75k since Q4 will be 10.5k and that includes around 4000 for December which gets you to 48k with no further improvements (third shift, second shift improving, other efficiencies etc).
Someone earlier asked for the breakdown. Doubt Rivian will say but from the VIN discussion on here it sounds like around 18k for the T, 3k for the S and then to get to 25k would leave 4k EDV.

right but they are expecting to hit the max capacity of 65k R1's at the end of 23. so if the EDV line (85k) isn't up to speed, they won't hit 75k

 

[Guy]

right but they are expecting to hit the max capacity of 65k R1's at the end of 23. so if the EDV line (80k) isn't up to speed, they won't hit 75k

The max capacity is more than 65k R1 in a factory with a 200k installed capacity. I have heard 120k for R1 capacity which is still a bit low, but if the capacity is around that then being less than 50% of installed capacity is not good financially and it would not be because of a lack of people or space.

 

[SANZC02]

It should be at least 75k since Q4 will be 10.5k and that includes around 4000 for December which gets you to 48k with no further improvements (third shift, second shift improving, other efficiencies etc).
Someone earlier asked for the breakdown. Doubt Rivian will say but from the VIN discussion on here it sounds like around 18k for the T, 3k for the S and then to get to 25k would leave 4k EDV.

I would be surprised if they are that aggressive with their target. One of the guides during a delivery said they were doing 200 a day, that is a clip of 52k a year with no improvement. If they target 60k for the year that is an average of 230 a day, still somewhat aggressive but they still need to keep feeding the lines. We are not sure how the supply chains are really shaping up but based on 4th qtr it seems to be improving.

60k at an ASP OF 80k gets them about 1.2 billion in sales per qtr 4.8 for the year and would put them in good shape going into 2024.

The 2022 earnings call will be interesting.

 

[DuoRivians]

Previous earnings call said average configurations were $90k or more

 

[Redline]

I just hope they’re sandbagging my window of Q3 ?

 

[emoore]

As a shareholder, I’m happy.

As a member of the Rivian community, my condolences to those who take delivery of vehicles 24,500-25,000.

Ha. Pretty sure that’s a myth. Probability isn’t different for cars built during the holidays or on a Friday or on a Monday that there will be issues.

 

[SANZC02]

Previous earnings call said average configurations were $90k or more

True but that is for R1, I heard EDV was avg around 77k. I’m being conservative, certainly as the mix of pre-March pre-orders start trailing and more recent prices start coming into play the number will start creeping up.

 

[Yellow Buddy]

Ha. Pretty sure that’s a myth. Probability isn’t different for cars built during the holidays or on a Friday or on a Monday that there will be issues.

Assuming linear production, a normal Monday or holiday sure. But if the line was cranked up say..10-15% to be able to meet it and folks have been running nonstop for weeks on end, there’s a higher chance. I’m not sure if RJ drives his folks as hard as Elon does though

 

[DuoRivians]

True but that is for R1, I heard EDV was avg around 77k. I’m being conservative, certainly as the mix of pre-March pre-orders start trailing and more recent prices start coming into play the number will start creeping up.

EDVs will receive huge IRA incentives up to $40k per vehicle, eg EDV 700. Not quite sure how it’s split between Rivian and Amazon. Maybe leasing via Rivian subsidiary? But there’s a lot of upside potential from the EDVs

 

[IRun]

It should be at least 75k since Q4 will be 10.5k and that includes around 4000 for December which gets you to 48k with no further improvements (third shift, second shift improving, other efficiencies etc).
Someone earlier asked for the breakdown. Doubt Rivian will say but from the VIN discussion on here it sounds like around 18k for the T, 3k for the S and then to get to 25k would leave 4k EDV.

I have access to a database that will show these numbers. Once they are posted probably late in January I can share them.

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