R1S may be (far) out-selling Model X?

[Rgrin]

Tesla only reports total Model S/X together, but based on Inside EVs, total S/X sales for 3Q23 were down to 13,688. Of this total, probably a good chunk were model S, so we can probably assume an upper bound of 10,000 for model X. Since most of current production at Rivian is R1S, there is a good chance that the R1S is already beating model X in sales volume.

Some may claim this is an unfair comparison. While the model X is indeed very old, it is the closest thing Tesla has to the R1S. (The Model Y is a different vehicle, and will compare more to the future R2.)

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[carsly]

Q4 2023 will be a better tale of the tape. Why?

Tesla dropped prices (significantly) on S/X in the beginning of September. If you read over on Teslamotorsclub there are plenty of folks who placed orders after that price drop who are waiting on vehicles. So I don't think we'll really see how the two measure up until we get in a full quarter of sales at these new prices. All that means is that we're in it now.

A $75K Model S in any color or a $80K Model X is a heck of a lot of vehicle for the money. Makes it hard for non-pre-March 2022 buyers who are looking at $95-100K R1S orders, myself included. Of course they are not the same class/type of vehicle BUT a $80K Model X with Supercharger access at 250kw today and the eligibility for some to take the full $7,500 tax credit means the R1S could be $25K more expensive. That's a big pill to swallow.

 

[solaskaze]

Q4 2023 will be a better tale of the tape. Why?

Tesla dropped prices (significantly) on S/X in the beginning of September. If you read over on Teslamotorsclub there are plenty of folks who placed orders after that price drop who are waiting on vehicles. So I don't think we'll really see how the two measure up until we get in a full quarter of sales at these new prices. All that means is that we're in it now.

A $75K Model S in any color or a $80K Model X is a heck of a lot of vehicle for the money. Makes it hard for non-pre-March 2022 buyers who are looking at $95-100K R1S orders, myself included. Of course they are not the same class/type of vehicle BUT a $80K Model X with Supercharger access at 250kw today and the eligibility for some to take the full $7,500 tax credit means the R1S could be $25K more expensive. That's a big pill to swallow.

I think you have a good point, but Rivian has plenty of runway left to sell high-end vehicles at a premium: never underestimate the fickleness of the car buyer at these price ranges. There is also still a huge backlog of buyers like myself who still don't have a vehicle.
From direct experience, the X isn't just old in design, those falcon wings doors and tapered rear end pretty much keep it from being a *utility* vehicle. Big: yes. Very easy entry (better than all vehicles for 2nd row): usually** . Price wins all is more a R2 discussion.

Forgive me for posting a what if for tesla, but this is what fans wanted years ago from them:
https://fossbytes.com/will-electric-tesla-cybertruck-spawn-cyber-roadster-or-cyber-suv/

The R1S looks to be a much prettier version of that, with all the utility kept (sans R1T specialities).

 

[Zorg]

We were toying with the idea of upgrading our X to keep free supercharging. A new X with 6 seats is about $87k and a dual motor R1S in base color is the same price.

 

[Rgrin]

Fair points.

If you have an X with free Supercharger, rolling into a new one is worth something. But how much? I assume for most folks, the bulk of charging is done at home. Of, say, 15K miles/year, maybe 3K of it is on road trips, which is something like 800 kWh of energy, so maybe something less than $200 in freebie value. Not nothing, but unless you happen to live or work next to a Supercharger and can use it for most of your charging, it doesn't seem to be a huge perk.

And I just checked, and was surprised that the 6-seat X is actually $3K *more* than the 7-seat.

As for general Supercharger access, IMO that is a short-term advantage. By summer 2024 I expect all R1S owners will have their Rivian-supplied NACS adapters, and will have access to all Superchargers (not just Magic-dock, like now). And Teslas already have their CCS adapters, so they will have access to all the RAN stations starting this month. (Not that RAN access is such a big draw).

Yes, Tesla has to resort to price-slashing to sell the model X. It works. But this is in response to Rivian. Not so good for margins/investors, but certainly for buyers. And as Rivian ramps up their volumes, it will indeed be interesting to see how buyers decide.

 

[SANZC02]

Fair points.

If you have an X with free Supercharger, rolling into a new one is worth something. But how much? I assume for most folks, the bulk of charging is done at home. Of, say, 15K miles/year, maybe 3K of it is on road trips, which is something like 800 kWh of energy, so maybe something less than $200 in freebie value. Not nothing, but unless you happen to live or work next to a Supercharger and can use it for most of your charging, it doesn't seem to be a huge perk.

And I just checked, and was surprised that the 6-seat X is actually $3K *more* than the 7-seat.

As for general Supercharger access, IMO that is a short-term advantage. By summer 2024 I expect all R1S owners will have their Rivian-supplied NACS adapters, and will have access to all Superchargers (not just Magic-dock, like now). And Teslas already have their CCS adapters, so they will have access to all the RAN stations starting this month. (Not that RAN access is such a big draw).

Yes, Tesla has to resort to price-slashing to sell the model X. It works. But this is in response to Rivian. Not so good for margins/investors, but certainly for buyers. And as Rivian ramps up their volumes, it will indeed be interesting to see how buyers decide.

Not all Superchargers, only V3 and up, the V1 and V2 superchargers will not be compatible with the adapter.

 

[DuoRivians]

I thought Teslas could temporarily serve as submarines.

Glad no one got hurt here. But a MX burning while submerged…

https://insideevs.com/news/694969/tesla-model-x-fire-boat-ramp-water/

 

[virgnia_rivian]

I've said this for a while, Americans love their big SUVs. The R1S and Model X are not direct 1:1 competitors. People will buy an R1S who would not even consider a Tesla. Rivian still has a backlog of R1Ss to delivery. In their Q3 earnings they said most of Q3 production was the R1S. They are selling.

 

[Rob Stark]

In California these are the Top 15 selling plugins so far this year.

Model X at #8 with 7,032 registrations and R1S at #11 with 3882 registrations.

 

[Rob Stark]

Rivian still has a backlog of R1Ss to delivery.

On Tesla's website it says you can get any Model 3,Y or S delivered by the end of the year.

Model X you may have to wait till February.

 

[darren1f]

I've said this for a while, Americans love their big SUVs. The R1S and Model X are not direct 1:1 competitors. People will buy an R1S who would not even consider a Tesla. Rivian still has a backlog of R1Ss to delivery. In their Q3 earnings they said most of Q3 production was the R1S. They are selling.

Then there are those of us who have one of each. They are very different vehicles, but are gunning for the same customer profile. Anyone who test drives them will immediately be drawn to one or the other, though still be conflicted because they are both such excellent choices. For long distance travel, convenience and car-like ride comfort, the X is far better. That's not to say the R1 isn't comfortable, Tesla's air suspension and noice cancelling is just much more dialed in. For good looks, off road capabilities and brand image, the R1 is the obvious choice. With the recent pre-pandemic price adjustment, there is a backlog waiting list for the Model X, just as there is for the R1.

 

[courtlandre]

And I just checked, and was surprised that the 6-seat X is actually $3K *more* than the 7-seat.

6-seater has two powered captain seats whereas the 7 seater is an unpowered bench seat.

 

[HaveBlue]

Fair points.

If you have an X with free Supercharger, rolling into a new one is worth something. But how much? I assume for most folks, the bulk of charging is done at home. Of, say, 15K miles/year, maybe 3K of it is on road trips, which is something like 800 kWh of energy, so maybe something less than $200 in freebie value. Not nothing, but unless you happen to live or work next to a Supercharger and can use it for most of your charging, it doesn't seem to be a huge perk.

And I just checked, and was surprised that the 6-seat X is actually $3K *more* than the 7-seat.

As for general Supercharger access, IMO that is a short-term advantage. By summer 2024 I expect all R1S owners will have their Rivian-supplied NACS adapters, and will have access to all Superchargers (not just Magic-dock, like now). And Teslas already have their CCS adapters, so they will have access to all the RAN stations starting this month. (Not that RAN access is such a big draw).

Yes, Tesla has to resort to price-slashing to sell the model X. It works. But this is in response to Rivian. Not so good for margins/investors, but certainly for buyers. And as Rivian ramps up their volumes, it will indeed be interesting to see how buyers decide.

Where did you see that other vehicles will have RAN access?

 

[Rgrin]

I remember RJ stating at one point that eventually RAN would be open to non-Rivian. And if Rivian wants federal NEVI funding for the chargers, they have to open it up to non-Rivian.

 

[Nine_One_Six_R1S]

I remember RJ stating at one point that eventually RAN would be open to non-Rivian. And if Rivian wants federal NEVI funding for the chargers, they have to open it up to non-Rivian.

In my local RAN I have seen Tesla's along with other brands charging already. Is your comment only related to the DCFC stalls?

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