Rivian Layoff 10% Staff and Lowers Production Forecast for 2024

[Hillbilly]

Anyone else considering selling their vehicle? It's starting to give me some anxiety, I don't want to be stuck with an $80k paperweight. Maybe worst case scenario is they get bought out by someone instead of shutting down?

No, I love my truck and the wife loves her SUV.

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[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

No, he meant the Inflation Reduction Act, IRA.


The IRA has hurt all EVs. I've been saying this since it was passed in fall of 2022. The number of models that qualify for the full $7500 under the IRA is only a small fraction of what qualified previously. And that immediately made most EVs $7500 more expensive in a time of elevated interest rates and new models coming on the market.

It is going to take years to re-do supply chains to re-qualify for the full credit. With Rivian, the R2 will qualify by design, but that's two years away. With some other brands, they're going to have to move their manufacturing into the US and incur a lot of start up and other costs because of that.

While it's perhaps good for American manufacturing and trade in general, it is a real kick in the teeth for American car manufacturers like Rivian. And it may just open the door for BYD to make major inroads in the US because they will still be competitive on the low end even without the subsidy, just like they are now a major player in Europe.

A number of US manufacturers are now deciding it's just not worth it, and have put off their near-term plans for EVs. Glad Rivian is still working hard to adapt to the unexpected hit from the IRA, not that they have much choice, unlike the ICE manufactures who will just continue to crank out the ICE vehicles.

Agreed. IRA is well-meaning, for the long run. But in the short-term it does not help proliferation of EVs. Now, just imagine if $ wasted on two decades of wars in far flung sandboxes and armpits... and if just a fraction of it was spent on what the IRA is attempting to accomplish in the future... what today might be like in terms of home solar and public charging? But I digress...

 

[Electrified Outdoors]

Rivian is doing better than Tesla three years in. They have only had two full years of production.

 

[R1TS]

Agreed. IRA is well-meaning, for the long run. But in the short-term it does not help proliferation of EVs. Now, just imagine if $ wasted on two decades of wars in far flung sandboxes and armpits... and if just a fraction of it was spent on what the IRA is attempting to accomplish in the future... what today might be like in terms of home solar and public charging? But I digress...

I disagree.
You can get Rivians with the credit. Just need to lease or get lower trims. But, you can still get it. In fact, you can lease almost any EV and get the full credit. Tesla has greatly been helped by the IRA.
I don’t see how IRA has hurt EV adoption any worse versus the prior program that had phased out many brands.

 

[R1TS]

Rivian is doing better than Tesla three years in. They have only had two full years of production.

This is like kids in school trying to feel better by comparing themselves to other slower kids. This doesn’t change the fact that Rivian production will practically be unchanged from 2023. That’s not good.

 

[olsonnet]

Rivian is doing better than Tesla three years in. They have only had two full years of production.

The demand for EVs is significantly higher now than it was a decade ago. Not a fair comparison.

 

[R1TS]

Sadly, this was predictable.

However, I think the Standard and Standard+ packs and the lower entry point when coupled with the dual motor puts R1's into a better demand space. Unfortunately, that $75-85K space is saturated -- and getting worse:

- Macan EV
- Volvo EX90
- Polestar 3
- Cadillac Lyriq
- Hummer EV 2

What else? Could be too many vehicles chasing too few buyers - at least until interest rates drop.

If you think this price range is saturated, wait until you see the market for $50K-$60K EV CUV/SUVs by 2027. There will be way more competition at that time.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

This is probably the least optimistic I've felt about Rivian since the IPO. The R2 parachute in 2026 feels a long way off right now. 2024 should be fine, but things are looking pretty grim in 2025 and early 2026 at the current trajectory.

The EDV business should be a bit of a safety net for them, but Amazon slow rolling their adoption is certainly not helping the situation.

 

[djsider2]

I don't think it was ever realistic they were going to sell 80k vehicles this year. Seriously they already have the best selling vehicle in their price range, where did people think the buyers were coming from?

Hit it spot on. The next group of buyers are standard battery pack for the true local only haulers. There's no reason to decrease pricing across the board if they've already switched their battery production to the lower capacity ones. Also, they don't need to have demand greater than the number the they can produce, so reducing pricing to get a ton of demand isn't going to help the bottom line.

 

[Tahoe Man]

It's always "wait until" with the fanboys. Meanwhile RIVN has done nothing but lose money for me and many others. I would have been better off in TSLA.

The future is getting dim, every EV maker is cutting prices and that's with a jumping economy. GM recently stated their going to go more into plug in hybrids and regular hybrids, seems like the right move to me.

 

[R1TS]

It's always "wait until" with the fanboys. Meanwhile RIVN has done nothing but lose money for me and many others. I would have been better off in TSLA.

The future is getting dim, every EV maker is cutting prices and that's with a jumping economy. GM recently stated their going to go more into plug in hybrids and regular hybrids, seems like the right move to me.

As long as you didn’t buy in at IPO, or higher.

 

[Dark-Fx]

It's always "wait until" with the fanboys. Meanwhile RIVN has done nothing but lose money for me and many others. I would have been better off in TSLA.

The future is getting dim, every EV maker is cutting prices and that's with a jumping economy. GM recently stated their going to go more into plug in hybrids and regular hybrids, seems like the right move to me.

Bye? Guessing you're only here because you like losing money?

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

It's always "wait until" with the fanboys. Meanwhile RIVN has done nothing but lose money for me and many others. I would have been better off in TSLA.

The future is getting dim, every EV maker is cutting prices and that's with a jumping economy. GM recently stated their going to go more into plug in hybrids and regular hybrids, seems like the right move to me.

LOL. Who asked you?

 

[Zorg]

The shareholder letter reiterated profitability Q4 2024, but I have doubts.

I agree. The widening loss per vehicle is concerning. At this point I wonder whether they'll ever be able to make a profit on the vehicle. They're burning $5b a year for operations and they need to find a new multi billion $ factory. They gonna have to raise cash to make it to R2 production. Or somehow, they can cut a ton of cost from their R1S platform.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

.....Rivian has been delivering pre-March priced vehicles all along. In fact vast majority of their delivery to date are pre-March priced vehicles........

There were several really good questions that RJ dodged, like:

- why can't you pull R2 forward and not focus on R1
- what's the split between backlog and new orders that makes up 57K unit forecast
- have you thought about revisiting your 2021 product and expansion strategy, given that EV landscape has changed so much
- why are we not hearing anything about reducing opex (operations expenses)

All of these questions was responded by indirect and oblique comments by RJ. Claire was more to the point but was clearly held back and chose her words very carefully.

RJ knows darn well, he cannot answer those questions, without taking on more water than they already have today and tomorrow. He didn't bring an ounce of optimism to the analysts or the big backers for that matter. They will (should) survive, but at what cost and under which umbrella will they ultimate reconfigure under?

This is going to be a rough couple of years, but we love our R1T and R1S and the idea of Rivian. I'm afraid the R2 could be too little too late. Does anyone really think the R2 will deliver in Q1 2026?

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