Rivian Guide Calls - Countdown to Thanksgiving Target

[SeaGeo]

Unless they come out and say calls are limited to 30 min, I think 12 calls per day is a high guess.

While some calls are short, the initial guide contacts were email to set up a time for a call, then the call. So the schedule would be for a 1 hour call, even if it only took 15 minutes. They aren't just cold calling customers.

My guess would be closer to 8 calls a day.

Meh. I'm with @DucRider. I'll obviously ask when can I get it, and if the two or three technical questions I have aren't answered yet, I'll be asking them. I expect to be on the phone for about 3 minutes. And I'm guessing the guide will try to run through a script that takes 10 minutes. I'm not a talker. So.... I'll hustle up the script and be done with the call in 5. And then proceed to text them every 5 minutes till my truck arrives or I can fly to Normal to pick it up.

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[jjswan33]

I don't see any reason to believe there are more than 5k Launch Editions (but of course I'm guessing too).

Forum surveys are representative only of the most enthusiastic and on top of it users, so the proportion of LE orders in that group should not be extrapolated to the general preorder population.

Everyone was eligible to reserve LE if they'd preordered by 11/2020, but Rivian closed down LE orders in less than a week, indicating that they hit a cap quickly.

And finally, latest intelligence from a reviewer is that they currently have 40k preorders, not 60k. This number is pretty recent so would include all of 2021 if it's anywhere near up to date. We're working with a lower base of total orders than you think.

Certainly if they only have 40k order last week that would put the number of LE orders lower. I thought one said 60k and there is also an article suggesting 30k (based on order numbers) from Aug 2020. If you take the 30k number at November of 2020 when LE orders were fully reserved how many of those do you think are for a LE R1S or LE R1T. I would bet more than 50%.

 

[SeaGeo]

No, no it's not. Not at all. Reaching out is an email. Technically RJ reached out to all LE preorder holders. This is substantive, including delivery timing. Hell man, it even says so here:

https://rivian.com/support/article/when-can-i-take-delivery

If you have a Launch Edition preorder, your Rivian Guide will reach out to you by November with expected delivery timing.

I'm not sure how much more clear it can get. They have 8 weeks and change to do this. I don't believe they will be able to pull it off. (although I hope they do)

This specifically says "Launch Edition preorder" not "preorder". I am a preorder holder without a launch edition. I won't be contacted by Thanksgiving. That's likely contacting less than 10k people in 12 weeks. Very attainable with 25ish staff for example.

 

[paariv]

Certainly if they only have 40k order last week that would put the number of LE orders lower. I thought one said 60k and there is also an article suggesting 30k (based on order numbers) from Aug 2020. If you take the 30k number at November of 2020 when LE orders were fully reserved how many of those do you think are for a LE R1S or LE R1T. I would bet more than 50%.

I wouldn't bet that. Rivian shut LE orders down in 4-5 days, indicating it wasn't open without restriction but had a hard cap. They didn't tell us in advance it would be shutting down, they just did it, so there were lots of people that didn't even know they had to complete the process by the deadline.

Maybe 50+% would have done it given unlimited time, but this was a not-super-well-publicized process and it ended abruptly and without notice. We are all guessing here, but I would be shocked if there were even 10k LE slots to be filled.

 

[electruck]

My extrapolation was that. If X number of orders before 11/20 when LE sold out and things went live to everyone. Of those orders Y number were for the Max pack truck so couldn't be LE orders.

Yes it could be wrong have survey bias or other errors and the number could be 10k or 50k. But other estimate of 1k or 2k or 5k are nothing but speculation based on nothing.

Regarding raw numbers of pre-orders. There was an estimate based on order numbers from Aug 2020 that suggested 30k. Some of those likely got canceled. I thought one of the reviewers said 60k, did they say 40k? If it were 40k before last week then that would certainly put LE numbers lower.

I would estimate of orders placed before 11/20 at least 50-75% will be for the LE and the rest opting for the larger pack or postponing a reservation for the smaller pack. Take that up or down as you see fit or add to the range.

Preorder 11/2022 * 50-75% = LE orders
40k preorders = 20-30k LE vehicles
20k preorders = 5k-7.5k LE vehicles

20k preorders seems low to me but time will tell.

Again, my point is that the number of LE reservations was dictated by Rivian, not by us customers. The number of LE reservations can not be extrapolated from the number of pre-orders made between 2018 and when the configurator went live.

 

[Dbeglor]

I wouldn't bet that. Rivian shut LE orders down in 4-5 days, indicating it wasn't open without restriction but had a hard cap. They didn't tell us in advance it would be shutting down, they just did it, so there were lots of people that didn't even know they had to complete the process by the deadline.

Maybe 50+% would have done it given unlimited time, but this was a not-super-well-publicized process and it ended abruptly and without notice. We are all guessing here, but I would be shocked if there were even 10k LE slots to be filled.

That's also my guess, 5-10k total LE.

 

[jjswan33]

I wouldn't bet that. Rivian shut LE orders down in 4-5 days, indicating it wasn't open without restriction but had a hard cap. They didn't tell us in advance it would be shutting down, they just did it, so there were lots of people that didn't even know they had to complete the process by the deadline.

Maybe 50+% would have done it given unlimited time, but this was a not-super-well-publicized process and it ended abruptly and without notice. We are all guessing here, but I would be shocked if there were even 10k LE slots to be filled.

Thats a reasonable argument. I guess I can feel lucky to get a LE order then but not sure I would agree it was not well known this is the email Rivian sent 5 days before it went live:

"Our configurator is launching Monday, November 16, for preorder holders. This is a full week before everyone else gets access.

In anticipation, we’re sharing more about our equipment packages, features, pricing and the Launch Edition — a special launch configuration with U.S. deliveries for the R1T starting in June 2021 and R1S in August 2021. Canadian deliveries begin in November 2021.

Thank you for being on this journey with us. We couldn’t be more grateful to be building a community of adventurous souls committed to leaving the planet better for our kids and our kids’ kids."

If LE editions didn't sell out until the 20th there was several days any preorder holder could reserve the LE. I suppose some may miss the email and lose out but I wouldn't put that number at 50%.

 

[paariv]

Thats a reasonable argument. I guess I can feel lucky to get a LE order then but not sure I would agree it was not well known this is the email Rivian sent 5 days before it went live:

"Our configurator is launching Monday, November 16, for preorder holders. This is a full week before everyone else gets access.

In anticipation, we’re sharing more about our equipment packages, features, pricing and the Launch Edition — a special launch configuration with U.S. deliveries for the R1T starting in June 2021 and R1S in August 2021. Canadian deliveries begin in November 2021.

Thank you for being on this journey with us. We couldn’t be more grateful to be building a community of adventurous souls committed to leaving the planet better for our kids and our kids’ kids."

If LE editions didn't sell out until the 20th there was several days any preorder holder could reserve the LE. I suppose some may miss the email and lose out but I wouldn't put that number at 50%.

I routinely miss emails I'm not looking for, and Rivian ones (until I changed the rules) were routed by gmail to my "promotions" tab, which I almost never check. If I weren't a member of these forums, I stood a very good shot of missing the order period.

We have no proof here, but I think you're way overestimating how many people had actually preordered by November 2020 (order estimates were based on Shopify, which increments up every time someone starts a cart, even if they abandon it). You're also overestimating how many people converted from preorder to LE in a 4-day period that ended with zero notice.

Remember that from the total population of preorders, you have to deduct:
1) People that will never convert to purchasers - which will be larger than you seem to think
2) People that weren't ready to (for financial or other reasons) purchase when LE orders opened
3) People who didn't get or read the email on time
4) People who would have wanted LE, but didn't complete configuration before the unannounced deadline (which itself indicates a hard numeric cap);
5) People waiting for max pack
6) People wary of getting v 1.0 of anything
7) People who got another car in the interim, etc etc

I would be shocked if anything close to 50% of preorder holders converted to LE in the first 4 days. Edit: and Rivian very likely capped LE numbers at something they thought they could achieve on the production timeline then in place.

In any event, a blast email from each guide to all of their contacts will get close enough to meeting this deadline that I expect that bare minimum activity to be the course Rivian takes.

 

[RWerksman]

This specifically says "Launch Edition preorder" not "preorder". I am a preorder holder without a launch edition. I won't be contacted by Thanksgiving. That's likely contacting less than 10k people in 12 weeks. Very attainable with 25ish staff for example.

I stated LE preorder holders. I believe it's unlikely they will be able to hit that.

Sure, if you hire enough Guides they will be able to roll through that group by then no problem assuming that they have planning button down. I just don't think they have the Guides, and I really don't think they have the info as promised.

Sitting here, right now today, we know the trucks exist and they initially reviewed to be great. We have evidence. What we don't have evidence of is a substantial amount of additional guide contacts or even vehicle deliveries to folks outside of Rivian.

Combine that with the fact they have missed self-imposed dates over (end of 2019) and over (mid 2020) and over (June 2021) and over (July 2021) and over (September 2021) again, and it seems like a sure bet they will miss this as well.

And to be fair, they did technically meet the May 2021 date to start reaching out to pre-order holders, but from what I can see, that group was really really small and the information they were provided was not incredibly accurate.


I'm happy to be wrong here, and I hope that I am. I'm setting my expectations low so when or if they blow it, I don't participate in the collective crapfest that will surely ensue here.

 

[jjswan33]

Again, my point is that the number of LE reservations was dictated by Rivian, not by us customers. The number of LE reservations can not be extrapolated from the number of pre-orders made between 2018 and when the configurator went live.

I sharply disagree. I would argue it is the only way to estimate.

X * Y = LE
where:
X = Number of orders < 11/20/2020
Y = % of those orders that are for the LE
LE = Number of LE orders

We can argue about the assumptions (X and Y) made in the extrapolation all day (which @paariv is) but there is no other way to estimate.

 

[moosehead]

First, one has to put down a deposit well in advance for a vehicle sight unseen and untested by civilians in the wild. Then one has to get over the first MY, get-the-kinks-out mentality we've all faced at one point, or perhaps determined never to do. Then we have to wait on the edge of our chairs for upwards of 18 months just to get a call from a Guide. Then have to wait for an unknown apparently extended length of time to take delivery and understand real needed info to own, charge, and service said vehicle.

Meanwhile, the company issues a massive IPO on all this TBD phantom potential.

Look, I'm still excited and all but this is way different than any other vehicle we have ever purchased.

Yea, yea, I'm the sucker and optioned to go this route - for now.

Carry on.

 

[electruck]

I sharply disagree. I would argue it is the only way to estimate.

X * Y = LE
where:
X = Number of orders < 11/20/2020
Y = % of those orders that are for the LE
LE = Number of LE orders

We can argue about the assumptions (X and Y) made in the extrapolation all day (which @paariv is) but there is no other way to estimate.

Edited: yes, you are correct to state that the number of LE reservations is less than the number of total reservations on 11/20/2020. That doesn't change the fact that Rivian decided how many LE vehicles they would build and removed LE from the configurator when that limit was reached.

 

[electruck]

Well it‘s not opinion but whatever I guess you just need the last word.. so indeed do carry on.

fyi, I did edit my post to acknowledge your one statement of fact.

 

[jjswan33]

Edited: yes, you are correct to state that the number of LE reservations is less than the number of total reservations on 11/20/2020. That doesn't change the fact that Rivian decided how many LE vehicles they would build and removed LE from the configurator when that limit was reached.

Then I think we agree. I may have overestimated and I agree that Rivian clearly defined how many LE orders they wanted to fulfill be that 5k, 10k or 20k. I’d be surprised if it is less than 10k and that was my opinion.

 

[SANZC02]

I think the problem people are having estimating the number of LE orders were based off of preorders. I do not think the number of preorders had anything to do with LE orders. My guess is the looked at what they think the initial Ramp up would look like and set a fixed number, once they hit that number they closed the door.

Without understanding what their criteria for setting the cap was, there is no real way to calculate that number, it is a swag for everyone not in the inner circle.

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