Musk: ~80% of Tesla [future] value will be Optimus Robots

[ukyank]

Robots are very useful and have been in use for decades. Humanoid robots are a parlor trick with little practical application.

Not really, we live in a human world with many things built for humans. Its more practical for a humanoid robot to be used in multiple already designed applications vs a bunch of different specific design, single use robots. Now not saying Tesla’s version is where it’s at, but humanoid robots in general make tons of sense.

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[BigSkies]

This is a true statement by Elon, although not for the reasons Elon wants you to think.

I tried doing a discounted cash flow model on Tesla a few quarters back. IIRC, I calculated the fair value of car + energy business to be about $30/share.

It is a bit tricky to value because you have to apply an assumed growth rate to earnings, and their EPS has declined ~60% since 2023.

You could maybe get to a valuation of $45/share if you assumed they returned to solid earnings growth. But on the flip-side, you get to $21.96/share if you apply a PE of 12 to the shares (roughly inline with other car companies).

Essentially, we can say that somewhere between $70 - $100Bish of market cap is due to the car & energy company.

Tesla has a ~$1 TRILLION dollar market cap.

90% of the value of Tesla shares is driven by their non-auto business.

If you buy a Tesla share today, 10% of the value of that share is driven by the car company.

90% of the price of that share is driven by a series of pre-revenue startups (effectively optimus and robo-taxi).

So yes, ~80%+ of the company's value is driven by optimus program.

I'll leave it to you on whether buying a pre-revenue startup with a market-cap of ~$900B is a good deal or a bad deal.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

She probably* wants a robot version of me too

Because the robot never gets tired?

 

[NY_Rob]

And TIL @COdogman has a wee thing for Scarlett Johansson

He has excellent taste!!

 

[Zoidz]

From this video posted by Marc Benioff at Salesforce, and Musk apparently there as well, Optimus has a looooong way to go just to be capable of leading someone to the break room.

 

[COdogman]

80% of Tesla will be robots that can barely walk to a break room, need a human supervisor (hello robotaxi) to warn nearby humans to stay away from them?

 

[Zoidz]

80% of Tesla will be robots that can barely walk to a break room, need a human supervisor (hello robotaxi) to warn nearby humans to stay away from them?

And that caption posted by Benioff would not give me a warm, fuzzy feeling as an employee....

"Dawn of the physical Agentforce revolution, tackling human work for $200K–$500K."

 

[Donald Stanfield]

From this video posted by Marc Benioff at Salesforce, and Musk apparently there as well, Optimus has a looooong way to go just to be capable of leading someone to the break room.

Is it just me or was there a long delay between asking it a question and its response? No one is going to want to have a conversation if each reply takes 20 minutes to occur. Also I thought these robots were supposed to be affordable? 200k-500k would need to do the work of several people to make it viable in a professional setting.

 

[COdogman]

And that caption posted by Benioff would not give me a warm, fuzzy feeling as an employee....

"Dawn of the physical Agentforce revolution, tackling human work for $200K–$500K."

Agreed. Any time these billionaire tech bros tell us their heartfelt visions for the future, red flags and flashing warning lights should go off.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Such productivity. Amazeballs. Any human worker working that slow… for 200-500k, management material.

 

[Zoidz]

Is it just me or was there a long delay between asking it a question and its response? No one is going to want to have a conversation if each reply takes 20 minutes to occur. Also I thought these robots were supposed to be affordable? 200k-500k would need to do the work of several people to make it viable in a professional setting.

Yes, there was a long delay. At least it did not stutter like M-M-M-M-Max Headroom. Although, it might be pretty funny for them to do a one-off OptimaxHeadroom.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Yes, there was a long delay. At least it did not stutter like M-M-M-M-Max Headroom. Although, it might be pretty funny for them to do a one-off OptimaxHeadroom.

Honestly the stutter Max Headroom style would have been cooler.

 

[Motoarzon]

Robots are very useful and have been in use for decades. Humanoid robots are a parlor trick with little practical application.

You are so out of touch. Examples
- Drones have limitations to deliver packages. A humanoid robot can solve this problem, especially when those vans full self drive. Amazon would buy a tonne of these things. Both the bots and the FSD technology. Even now with a human operator. How many times does a delivery van stop and the driver walks to one side of the residential street and then the other side of the street with a second package for another home. Imagine the driver hands one package to the bot to do one of those deliveries. You just cut down delivery times in half and increased productivity. This, times tens of thousands of delivery vehicles!
-Imagine in a nursing home with hundreds of beds who's sheets need changing quite often. There is hundreds of man hours of labor simply running soiled sheets to the end of the hall and dropped in the laundry shute for washing. PSW's can simply hand the sheets to a bot to do such a simple task An easy one but it's still time, 2 minutes there and back times 1000-'s and 1000's of trip throughout the year all ads up and a bot can quickly make a business case to pay itself back. Or things like just carrying a dinner tray to a patients room, or cafeteria table. Again, x100's throughout the day. There are all kinds of menial tasks that a bot can do in just this one environment and a minute here and minute there all ads up to real $$$$ paid to a human year after year.
-As you and I get older imagine having a bot on hand for all kinds of menial tasks in the home. Please provide a steady arm to hold while I step in or out of the shower, pass me a towel, Lift my groceries up on the counter, get me a drink from the fridge, carry my bag to the car and put it in the trunk while I get in the car. Or if you have elderly parents. You know how much a psw costs to go in the home to help out and keep a watchful eye on your elderly early dementia parents.
We take these things for granted now but when people are 90 and would like to be in their homes a few more years before finally being shipped off to a nursing home you'd gladly pay $25k for and extra helping hand. This x1,000,000's of elderly people!
There are endless examples of menial things a bot can do. and every industry in the world will use then.

 

[TTedP]

From this video posted by Marc Benioff at Salesforce, and Musk apparently there as well, Optimus has a looooong way to go just to be capable of leading someone to the break room.

That's ?
It's fire alright, but not the kind they think it is

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