Q3 2025 Rivian Production & Delivery Report: 13,201 Delivered / 10,720 Produced

[DD4ST]

The TL;DR is that it isn't and never was just about price in the auto market.

You’re absolutely right it is not just about price, and that is why Rivian needs to undercut. Those of us that already have a Rivian are not typical of most Americans wrt the Rivian brand. All the other brands you mention are established brands with worldwide name recognition and decades of following. Almost everyone knows someone who owns one of these brands. And if a brand starts to have issues, then the tendency is to jump to another established brand. Rivian is a newcomer where I still run into people and they think it is a foreign brand or a model of the big three. Relative to established brands, very few people know someone who owns one, muchless owns one themselves. Plus Rivian has this really different sales and service model that people aren’t used to or comfortable with. Basically, Rivian is the unknown whereas people retreat to the comfort of what they know. And every problem gets amplified in the press. Message = Rivian is a risky bet. People will take on more risk if the price is right.

But Rivian also has a problem that it is selling ONLY 40K vehicles a year when their competitors are sellng 10X+ than that. Automaker’s capital fixed costs (like factories) are spread across each vehicle sold. In general, they do not scale with sales/production numbers so fewer numbers mean capital cost take a bigger bite out of profit and/or recurring costs (labor and materials) to build a vehicle. Rivian has no profit so reducing recurring costs means fewer workers or cheaper materials, neither which benefit a brand trying too be luxury. So Rivian MUST increase sales dramatically to lessen the fixed costs. (There are also other mitigations like the VW JV though). Given the real and perceived issues in the above paragraph, they are going to have to do this on price until the numbers are much bigger if they want to eventually be profitable. They aren’t going to do it on brand recognition and a few distinguishing features alone.

And for those that will come out and argue Tesla did it, let’s remember that in its day Tesla was the only game in town for EV’s and Elon Musk had such deep pockets that he, alone, could keep it afloat until it was profitable. Not the case for Rivian.

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[mkhuffman]

If the basis of your argument was correct that people won't pay premium or even similar prices for Rivian vehicles, then Rivian wouldn't be on track to sell 40k vehicles in 2025, most of them R1s at price points ranging from ~$75k to $125k+. There are plenty of established brand luxury ICE vehicles, including off road options, at these price points and lower and yet Rivian still sells their vehicles. That shouldn't be possible if your premise is correct.

The new Tacoma and 4Runner 2.4 liter turbo 4 vehicles are not what they were in the past. One example, much more hard plastic, even on expensive trim levels at $55k+. In addition, Toyota's reputation has been impacted by vehicle quality issues including a major engine recall on the Tundra that people had to fight for before Toyota responded. The Toyota/dealer sales model, especially at the Tacoma Trailhunter level was the final straw that had me move to considering other options.

But if we were to take your point further then the poor quality/reliability of Jaguar Land Rover/Range Rover, something the brand has struggled to shake off, surely means that it shouldn't be possible for them to achieve the 430k+WW shipments in fiscal 2024 that they did achieve, up 22% from the prior year.

The TL;DR is that it isn't and never was just about price in the auto market.

Good points.

Quality and reliability are very important especially for a start up where company viability is in question. Will Rivian go bankrupt and leave all of us with unsupported vehicles, like Fisker did? I have never leased a vehicle before but did this time primarily for that reason.

Anyway, I want the R2 to be a smashing success. I am extremely happy with my R1T, and plan to get a Gen3 R1T when my lease expires. It is such an amazing vehicle. Hopefully that is how people who get the R2 feel, and Rivian sells as many as they can make. At a profit! Lol. It better be at a profit or there might not ever be a Gen3 R1.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

Not arguing with your logic but the competition is well known by the consumer and well regarded from a quality and reliability perspective. It will take years for Rivian to achieve the brand awareness and quality expectations Honda and Toyota enjoy. Years, dude.

Rivian needs to significantly undercut their price point to get noticed and to convince people to take a chance on a unknown manufacturer. They can't match them. They need to beat them.

They need to be much cheaper. If they can't do it, they will really struggle to compete. You know Toyota gets a premium over well established competition because of their quality reputation, right? How can a competitor nobody has even heard of beat that? How? Price? That seems like the only realistic lever to me.

Wrong. Firstly, most people aren't as price motivated as you're assuming. Maybe you are, but you are in the minority as for most people purchases are more of an emotional decision than a rational one. Proof if this is people buying new cars at all. A couple year old depreciated vehicle is always cheaper than the new model and for all intents and purposes is new with only a few thousand miles on it. These vehicles can be found for any manufacturer, yet new cars are always sold.

Second, the worst thing you can do for a new brand, especially one with the performance and innovation of the R1 series, is to brand it as a bargain basement choice. This will devalue Rivian's brand over time and take years to change consumer perceptions. If Rivian wants to fold they should follow your strategy and make the cheapest shit they can come up with.

Rivian can beat their competitors with innovation. Their software stack is only rivaled by Tesla and IMO Rivians have a much broader appeal outside of their software than Tesla. Rivian is offering the most advanced tech in the most appealing mainstream package. Have you seen the R2 in person? I have, and the impression I got was R1 quality in a smaller form factor. It wasn't Ascend interior but it was as nice as Adventure trim which is better than GM's offerings and Tesla doesn't even come close styling wise.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

But Rivian also has a problem that it is selling ONLY 40K vehicles a year when their competitors are sellng 10X+ than that.

Which competitor is selling 10X the vehicles at the R1's price point?

 

[mkhuffman]

Wrong. Firstly, most people aren't as price motivated as you're assuming. Maybe you are, but you are in the minority as for most people purchases are more of an emotional decision than a rational one. Proof if this is people buying new cars at all. A couple year old depreciated vehicle is always cheaper than the new model and for all intents and purposes is new with only a few thousand miles on it. These vehicles can be found for any manufacturer, yet new cars are always sold.

Second, the worst thing you can do for a new brand, especially one with the performance and innovation of the R1 series, is to brand it as a bargain basement choice. This will devalue Rivian's brand over time and take years to change consumer perceptions. If Rivian wants to fold they should follow your strategy and make the cheapest shit they can come up with.

Rivian can beat their competitors with innovation. Their software stack is only rivaled by Tesla and IMO Rivians have a much broader appeal outside of their software than Tesla. Rivian is offering the most advanced tech in the most appealing mainstream package. Have you seen the R2 in person? I have, and the impression I got was R1 quality in a smaller form factor. It wasn't Ascend interior but it was as nice as Adventure trim which is better than GM's offerings and Tesla doesn't even come close styling wise.

I want you to be right. But I think price is more important than you do. Not to me personally, but to the average buyer it is.

The R2 will be cross-shopped with ICEVs. Does the average consumer (who is not you, and not me since we own $100k trucks) want to try their first BEV experience with an unknown company with a very short history? It will take more than innovation, IMO. Innovation is required, but price will be what gets people to pull the trigger and give it a shot. IMO, of course.

BTW - Rivian is already a premium brand due to the R1. I doubt the R2 will change that. It could, as you point out. But it won't be a $10k vehicle. It will be $40k.

 

[DD4ST]

Which competitor is selling 10X the vehicles at the R1's price point?

My point was to illustrate the effect of numbers on profitability, not to assert they are all at Rivian’s price point. Reread what I am talking about in that paragraph. But to cite one example where Rivian goes head-to-head, the Ford F150 (all variants as people have a choice in the real world) sold 460K+ in 2024. And, yes some of these are BELOW Rivian’s price point, but all people don’t just go for fully loaded models. Still that 460K+ absorbs Ford’s capital costs much more easily.

 

[mkg3]

Wrong. Firstly, most people aren't as price motivated as you're assuming...

For those that loves and really wants Rivian, this is true. For vast majority of shoppers, Rivian SUV is just another SUV that happens to be BEV, albeit a good one, it's just another SUV option. This is particularly true for R2.

With exception of relatively small demographics, Rivian is not an iconic vehicle that people are willing to pay whatever it costs, relatively speaking.

As such, I believe potential R2 buyers will cross shop against all SUV - both EV and hybrid in the $40~$50K range and will most likely decide based on the price/monthly payment over some unique feature R2 may bring.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

My point was to illustrate the effect of numbers on profitability, not to assert they are all at Rivian’s price point. Reread what I am talking about in that paragraph. But to cite one example where Rivian goes head-to-head, the Ford F150 (all variants as people have a choice in the real world) sold 460K+ in 2024. And, yes some of these are BELOW Rivian’s price point, but all people don’t just go for fully loaded models. Still that 460K+ absorbs Ford’s capital costs much more easily.

We all know Rivian needs to sell volume, but that's never going to happen with the R1 so I'm not sure why you even mentioned what Rivian sells now. If anything, Rivian has a greater percentage of the market they are in than many other luxury manufacturers. I'd say the volume that Rivian at their current price point is encouraging not worrisome. Rivian has the highest customer satisfaction according to Consumer Reports and in 2024 Rivian outsold all other vehicles above the 70K dollar price point.

That tells me that Rivian provides pretty good value for the price, so long as they can continue to do that with R2 at the 45K dollar price point they should sell pretty well and in larger volume.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

For those that loves and really wants Rivian, this is true. For vast majority of shoppers, Rivian SUV is just another SUV that happens to be BEV, albeit a good one, it's just another SUV option. This is particularly true for R2.

With exception of relatively small demographics, Rivian is not an iconic vehicle that people are willing to pay whatever it costs, relatively speaking.

As such, I believe potential R2 buyers will cross shop against all SUV - both EV and hybrid in the $40~$50K range and will most likely decide based on the price/monthly payment over some unique feature R2 may bring.

It's not price, it's VALUE, which is a different thing. A lump of shit for 40K isn't going to sell as well as a car with perceived value at 45k. You're right, Rivian will be compared against other vehicles in the category and at the price point. No one said Rivian was some iconic brand that would allow its name to carry them.

My argument is that R1 is popular because of what you get at the price point. The software is one of the best around, the design and styling are good, as is the range. Will the R2 stack up against the competition at its price point as well? I'm not sure, but having seen one in person, I feel the potential is there.

Still, price isn't the most significant determining factor for most people when it comes to choosing one vehicle over another. People tend to shop for what they can afford and look at everything in that price point that can serve their needs. $ 45,000 is the average price of a new car sale, so that should get Rivian in the door for many buyers. What will carry them across the goal line is their value relative to the competition.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

I want you to be right. But I think price is more important than you do. Not to me personally, but to the average buyer it is.

The R2 will be cross-shopped with ICEVs. Does the average consumer (who is not you, and not me since we own $100k trucks) want to try their first BEV experience with an unknown company with a very short history? It will take more than innovation, IMO. Innovation is required, but price will be what gets people to pull the trigger and give it a shot. IMO, of course.

BTW - Rivian is already a premium brand due to the R1. I doubt the R2 will change that. It could, as you point out. But it won't be a $10k vehicle. It will be $40k.

Price isn't what seals the deal; value is. Value is what you get for your dollar. The R2 will be positioned directly against the Model Y. I believe the R2 will offer a better value than the Y.

 

[DuoRivian]

That leaves ~10k deliveries in Q4 to hit guidance. That feels a little aggressive knowing that Amazon doesn't take many deliveries in Q4 and a lot of demand got pulled forward from the tax cuts.

Rivian really got hosed by the Big Billionaire Bill this year.

A successful R2 launch is what really matters though. That's what they really need to get right.

May companies seem to have been able to slash prices since the credit went away - Hyundai cuts by $10k

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

May companies seem to have been able to slash prices since the credit went away - Hyundai cuts by $10k

Because they have a robust ICE revenue to afford it. Pure EV OEMs do not have that in their toolbox.

 

[mkg3]

Price isn't what seals the deal; value is. Value is what you get for your dollar. The R2 will be positioned directly against the Model Y. I believe the R2 will offer a better value than the Y.

We all come from different socioeconomic backgrounds and depending on where one sits, value may weigh more than price. On the other hand, affordability and price is everything to some. Its easy to say that people wants the biggest benefit for the dollar. It's much harder for people to actually behave that way and spend more for perceived value. Almost always lower cost wins the decision.

Value proposition is very subjective and what is valuable to one person may not be to another. Rivian has to consider the entire addressable market and figure out how best to capture and be profitable. The addressable market is a very crowed space with options galore and the traditional automakers subsidizing the EV pricing by large profit margins from their ICE and PHEV sales. Rivian does not have that and does not sell enough EDVs at a high margin to make a difference.

The last thing I'll mention is the environmental credit going away. This is the ONLY reason Rivian has been able to show profitability. Its going get rough for Rivian in the coming quarters....

 

[Just Passing By]

What advocates for Rivian dropping the price for R2 seem to be overlooking is that Rivian can only expand production at a limited rate. Creating demand with low prices that they can't satisfy leaves money on the table, upsets potential customers who expected to get a vehicle and of course undermines Rivian margins.

In the unlikely event IMO that Rivian has more production capacity than demand in 2026 or 2027, then they have the option at any time to reduce prices or generate temporary incentives to create additional demand. The reverse is not true, they know from first hand experience that people don't like it when you raise prices, once the low price genie is out of the bottle its hard/punishing to put it back.

To illustrate the capacity point, the Normal factory has to ramp up to 215k/yr production rate, Rivian can't flip a switch in 1Q26 or 2Q26 and immediately go from zero vehicles to producing 18k vehicles per month, its likely going to take months to get there, with a lot of inexperienced new hires and probably also adding extra shifts. Rivian won't have any more capacity until 200k comes on line in 2028 in Georgia with the first phase. So the max 2027 capacity for all Rivian vehicles will be 215k units.

 

[Just Passing By]

We all come from different socioeconomic backgrounds and depending on where one sits, value may weigh more than price. On the other hand, affordability and price is everything to some. Its easy to say that people wants the biggest benefit for the dollar. It's much harder for people to actually behave that way and spend more for perceived value. Almost always lower cost wins the decision.

Why would anyone buy a Mercedes, BMW or especially an Audi if price rather than value is the critical metric? This is especially true for Audi, when a customer can buy a VW using exactly the same platform/engine/drivetrain. And yet some people do because they value an Audi more than a VW, or value what Mercedes or BMW deliver versus other lower cost vehicles.

There is a huge WW auto market, Rivian doesn't have to conquer all of it. Rivian isn't suddenly going to be Toyota, VW, GM or Ford with their respective brand recognition, sales volumes and market presence but they don't need to be. Look at the example I gave before of Jaguar Land Rover, annual production volumes of "only" 400k+. They've established a niche and were, up until the recent cyber security breach, doing well with their approach.

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