Where $RIVN is Headed in 2026?

[mkg3]

The closing price on 12/31/2024 was $14.72/share.
The closing price on 12/31/2025 was $19.71/share - gain of $4.99, or 33.9% (mostly in December)

Even though R2 release is coming, EVs in general will have a very tough year given the lower gas prices, increasing electricity rates and auto industry refocusing on hybridized ICE vehicles.

What's the community's thoughts?

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[captainjp]

To the

 

[Donald Stanfield]

My crystal ball says the price is going to drop when 4th quarter results are announced.

 

[VC_Rivian]

It’s do or die for lucid. I’m hoping Rivian has a strong year with the R2, but the whole EV market is in for a turbulent year.

 

[CrazyOne]

I sold most when price spiked. I expect at least one drop before things go up up and away. I still have some from the IPO. They have a great product, but execution for the mainstream market needs to be better.

Getting to mid level reliability will help a lot.

 

[BigSkies]

Up 25%-50% if the R2 launch is relatively drama free and it launches to good reviews, strong demand, and within expectations on price/performance, etc.

The stock goes massively down if the launch goes poorly.

 

[mkhuffman]

I averaged down, but that still puts my holdings way far under water. I need to get up the mid 60s before I start to make money. LOL.

I still have hope it will get back to that level, maybe higher. But they can only do it if they are valued as more than just a automobile manufacturer. IMO the self-driving thing is one of the ways they can become valued more like an IT company and less like a car company.

They need to demonstrate they can make money on software. Definitely the success of R2 matters, but it matters because it means they can sell more software to more people. The more R2s they sell, there larger their market for Connect+, UHF and other services.

Unless they can make serious money on software, I think the value of the stock will never reach my break even. If they can show software as a major revenue center for the company, the stock price will keep going up. IF not, it will languish.

IMO!

 

[captainjp]

I averaged down, but that still puts my holdings way far under water. I need to get up the mid 60s before I start to make money. LOL.

I still have hope it will get back to that level, maybe higher. But they can only do it if they are valued as more than just a automobile manufacturer. IMO the self-driving thing is one of the ways they can become valued more like an IT company and less like a car company.

They need to demonstrate they can make money on software. Definitely the success of R2 matters, but it matters because it means they can sell more software to more people. The more R2s they sell, there larger their market for Connect+, UHF and other services.

Unless they can make serious money on software, I think the value of the stock will never reach my break even. If they can show software as a major revenue center for the company, the stock price will keep going up. IF not, it will languish.

IMO!

Rivian is also venturing into robotics and automation. Products to be sold to manufacturing businesses.

 

[mkg3]

Try looking outside of CA.

https://gasprices.aaa.com/
Average national gas price is $2.83/gal for regular (AAA), while data centers are consuming more energy and driving up the electricity demand; hence, rate increases.

 

[mkg3]

I averaged down, but that still puts my holdings way far under water. I need to get up the mid 60s before I start to make money. LOL.

I still have hope it will get back to that level, maybe higher....

The current market cap is roughly $24B so to get to $60/share, that's 3x from here or market cap of $75B - what GM is today.

Rivian is not going to get there on autos alone....

 

[Donald Stanfield]

The current market cap is roughly $24B so to get to $60/share, that's 3x from here or market cap of $75B - what GM is today.

Rivian is not going to get there on autos alone....

Tesla did, granted there’s a lot of hopium for why Tesla trades as high as it does.

 

[AlanP]

The future of EV‘s in the US is grim, correction very grim. That other country across the sea is going to take over completely in the next three years. Unfortunately, there will be no catching up.

 

[mkg3]

The future of EV‘s in the US is grim, correction very grim. That other country across the sea is going to take over completely in the next three years. Unfortunately, there will be no catching up.

We've all seen it right? When the Chinese enters any market, its a race to the bottom and all the profits are lost and often companies go out of business.

The best thing that's happening is the pushback on EVs globally (I like EVs, don't get me wrong) and abate the onslaught of cheap Chinese EVs by consumer choice. While this is unintended outcome, gives another chance to the western automakers - as long as they realize the benefit of time on their side.

While the Chinese EVs own the low end EV market, the real profit is in the mid to upper segments of the market where EVs are not selling compared to ICE and hybrids. Now its up to the western automakers to produce compelling products.

 

[mkg3]

Tesla did, granted there’s a lot of hopium for why Tesla trades as high as it does.

Different times, environment, assumptions and tack records.

Sure, if you believe what you say, great. I do not.

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