Cybertruck popularity vs R1

[R1 Lime]

The Cybertruck will be a huge flop for Tesla. Come back to my comment in 4 years and see if I was right. ?

Did I reserve one years ago? You betcha, but that was when it was 500 miles for $69k. I was ok with the looks knowing I was getting that size of an EV with that many miles. It was also at a time before Rivian’s were on the road, and Tesla was proven so my confidence in the brand was high. But with the R1S and R1T available for purchase, what is the draw to the CT?

Will CT’s be sold out over the next year? Of course, there’s a lot of “me first” buyers and Tesla fans who NEED to be the first to drive these. Beyond those buyers, who’s left? Would truck buyers who use trucks for construction or other work actually choose a CT over other options?

Tesla is bringing a polarizing truck to a market that wants SUVs and crossovers. This is where I think Tesla is heading towards trouble as a company. Their lineup consists of sedans and raised sedans. There’s a reason over the last decade car brands have skewed their lineup towards crossovers and SUVs. Families want them. They want boxy SUVs with generous third rows. Tesla should have been prioritizing a boxy SUV this whole time. Instead, the R1S outsold the Model X in 2023. Tesla’s best option to stop the bleed was to lower the Model X price, but at the end of the day it’s a turtle shaped plump sedan that can’t fit all the things a growing family usually needs on trips (stroller, luggage, pack n play, etc.). BuT tHe mOdeL Y iS tHe bEsT seLliNg cAr — sure, the 3 and Y have sold well in a time when there were no other EV options with a great charging network. Fast forward to today and Superchargers are on the cusp of opening for all and other brands are releasing decent EV vehicles, some of which are SUVs. I just can’t see how a brand with sedans and a polarizing truck expect to do well without the Supercharger exclusivity and in a market with other viable options. And I haven’t even mentioned Elon’s reputation or the slowing of car sales.

I do hope the CT succeeds. But I just can’t see how it reaches scale anywhere close to the 3 or Y, or maybe even the X. And maybe that’s the likely outcome… they only make a premium CT with greater range that never sees sub $80k prices.

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[SteveInBend]

Copied from my Mastodon feed:

thought I saw a Cybertruck in the wild but then I realized it was only a dumpster.

https://beige.party/@KevBot/111870886375047566

 

[sacramentoelectric]

People keep saying this, but does that range extender actually exist yet? Or is it going to be like the Max Pack - promised but not delivered until many years later?

I personally feel that the range extender was announced just to technically make Elon's range promise sort-of true, but that it's never going to actually be sold. Or if it is sold, it will be years before they can deliver, and then people won't buy it because it's expensive, heavy, and takes up half your bed.

Considering the number of wild, unfulfilled promises Elon has made, (Roadster with rocket thrusters, 500mi range truck, Full Self Driving, 100% automated production lines, etc.) Tesla doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt when it comes to unreleased products. The Range Extender is pure vaporware until it's shipping.

The engineering challenges they'd have to overcome to integrate an external >1000lbs high voltage battery into the drivetrain will be extreme. Does it have its own cooling system for rapid charging (how would that even work when it's sealed under the tonneau) or does it have to hook into the existing coolant loop? Did they really test and integrate a second coolant loop in all Cybertrucks for a $16k accessory that very few will buy? Are there high voltage lines already integrated into the existing pack and run into sockets in the bed? Think of all the costs added to a base CT to make it compatible with an external HV pack. This is the company that cut parking and rain sensors to save a few $. Which seems more likely? Tesla spent tons of money developing an external pack while also increasing the build cost of the truck for a niche accessory or that Tesla is lying about the range extender to protect Elon's ego and to string along people who wanted a 500mi truck.

 

[Epicloop]

The engineering challenges they'd have to overcome to integrate an external >1000lbs high voltage battery into the drivetrain will be extreme. Does it have its own cooling system for rapid charging (how would that even work when it's sealed under the tonneau) or does it have to hook into the existing coolant loop? Did they really test and integrate a second coolant loop in all Cybertrucks for a $16k accessory that very few will buy? Are there high voltage lines already integrated into the existing pack and run into sockets in the bed?

The battery should be about 650lbs but all the other points are valid, I doubt it will even be made. If it is it would need to be pre-plumbed for the application.

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