Does Article in Jalopnik about Tesla Bode the Same for Rivian?

[DD4ST]

Opening this topic as a thought provoker. I know I am opening a Pandora’s Box on this forum but I am convinced if Rivian is to be successful they need to ‘unthink’ being a revolutionary car company. An article on Tesla facing hard times and not being able to transition to a broader client base (https://jalopnik.com/tesla-doesn-t-know-how-to-sell-cars-to-normal-people-1851609646) would seem to bode for Rivian, too, since Rivian seems to be following the same path, albeit several years later. The majority of people are not ate up with owning an EV and won’t even look at one if it is too far from what they are used to. My first EV was an Audi eTron, not because I craved an EV but because I drove one and really liked the driving experience of an EV plus most of it’s features and controls, and the dealer experience, were already comfortable to me. Now I Also have an R1T and both the car and driving experience are decidedly different from what I was comfortable with. A lot of folks here tout the one-pedal driving but it is not something you fall in love with during a test drive. Ditto on EVERYTHING being software bound vice manually adjustable vents (infinitely more efficient when driving), radio knobs, etc. Don’t get me started on the idea of no dealerships and having to rely on distant Service Centers. If you are coming from Tesla, this is not a leap. And I will get used to the difference. But coming from an ICE vehicle, people will walk away, especially with cheaper prices For ICE. Because of this, legacy companies like Ford and GMC have a big leg up and a threat to Rivian survivability. I do like my Rivian and want them to survive, but the writing is close to being on the wall IMO.

Sponsored

 

[VSG]

Oh come on.

 

[RedRaiderRivian]

This seems like a more complete view of the market.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...electric-vehicle-sales-looks-more-like-a-blip

 

[Davethadog]

I agree with a lot of what you said but I don’t think the writing is on the wall. Gross profit is close to being zero and the demand for their less expensive vehicles seems to be strong.

The software defined vehicle will bother a lot of folks who currently have a lot of disposable income but I don’t think that’ll be the case forever.

 

[Marchin_MTB]

I take a few issues with this article about another article (business insider). First is the unsubstantiated claim that all or most Tesla owners are “Tesla-bros”. Second is the dubious theory that in order to make EVs palatable you must make them more like ICE cars of the last decade, in other words, worse. It would be better if ICE cars gradually added EV-like features instead like OPD and software integration to help smooth the eventual jump to a more efficient drivetrain perhaps.

 

[DD4ST]

Note I said “close to being on the wall”. I agree there is still a path forward but the landscape is constantly changing and Rivian is likely only has a couple of years to figure out how to take it on.

 

[Tenn]

So if i‘m being reductive, you’re saying is that the only people buying Rivians will be Tesla owners so Rivian is screwed. Being slightly less reductive the only people buying Rivians are people who already owned other EVs…because Robots and mail order service centers?

My last vehicle was a BMW, my first EV was a Rivian. I’ve also acclimated to touch screens having used one on my phone since 2007.

We’re currently dealing with a glut in the market place of unremarkable overpriced product which is depressing both values and new sales. Tesla is also singularly dealing with a lot of bad press from their jackass of a leader who’s too focused on Robotaxis and AI.

This will pass. Rivians market differentiation, their software innovation and best in class product will ultimately be the successful and grow the tent.

We’re still in early days and their product pipeline looks amazing.

It’s still the best vehicle I’ve ever owned and it’s spoiled me for other cars.

Speaking of Audi, I looked at their A6 Etron debut today because I love me some A6’s and the UI looks so last generation I clicked away. No wonder VW came to Rivian’s door with a bucket of cash.

 

[Dave Cundiff]

@DD4ST: IMO your hypothesis is partly valid, but only partly.

***

Here's an abridged version what Jalopnik said at https://jalopnik.com/tesla-doesn-t-know-how-to-sell-cars-to-normal-people-1851609646:

"Tesla Is Struggling To Find New Buyers
After years at the top of the electric vehicle hill, Tesla is facing challenges left, right and center. ... Now, a new report has found that the company’s latest challenge is drawing in new buyers. ...
Business Insider warns that Tesla might not know how to draw in buyers who aren’t inducted into the church of Musk. As the site explains:

... the non-Tesla-bro contingent is looking for something more practical that mimics the experience of their gas-powered car.

The findings come from a JD Power survey, which quizzed almost 100,000 owners of new 2024 model-year vehicles after 90 days of ownership. The survey found that Musk’s car company is still popular among loyal customers, but its performance among newer buyers was described as 'lackluster.' ... [O]wners of EVs made by legacy automakers said they 'felt more connected with their cars than Tesla owners did.'"

***

As you said, @DD4ST, transitioning to EVs is still a progression for many people.

With a strong environmental ethic, I waited until we shopped for a Kia Optima Hybrid and found the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) had better lease terms than its non-plug-in cousin. Little to lose, so we bought the PHEV. With a PHEV from a legacy automaker, we got familiar with PlugShare and the public charging system.

After ten months with a PHEV, and after seeing that the 2017 Bolts were holding up reasonably well, we were confident enough to buy a 2019 Bolt. With an all-BEV from a legacy automaker, we learned to take longer trips on electric power -- even though the Bolt's charging speed often made our trips longer and stranger than they would otherwise have been.

After three years with the first Bolt, we realized we were ready for another all-EV. Bolt prices were excellent, though you couldn't find one, but we ordered from an honest dealer who promised to sell at MSRP. Eight months later in early 2023, we had our 2023 Bolt, with more independence and confidence but still with slow charging speeds (which made trips to Seattle and round trips to Olympia relatively inconvenient). Notice that, at this point in the story, we were still buying economy vehicles from legacy dealers.

By 2023, Rivian was selling Max Packs, we had an ill family member in Seattle and we were frequently hauling things for our schools and Food Bank. In February 2024, we upgraded to an R1S Max Pack in order to haul everything we needed, and in order to be able to drop everything and get to Seattle if we needed to.

A few months later, my wife decided we needed a truck for hauling purposes. I wanted to make the family "fleet" all-electric. She wanted controls that resembled the controls in a vehicle we already had as closely as possible, so she wouldn't have to learn new controls. Rivian was selling Demo R1T's at good prices. That's how we became a two-Rivian family.

Notice that each step in this process depended on the step before it. And it started with three cars from legacy manufacturers before we got to our first Rivian. But we got there.

If our first EV had been a Rivian Demo Drive, the Rivian might have been too weird for us to buy at that time. (We'll never know what we would have thought, because that's such a different scenario.) Rivian needed to develop a really long-range vehicle before we could be confident about Seattle round trips. And we needed to think Rivian was more than a "flash in the pan" and could support the R1's long enough for us to get at least reasonable value out of ours.

We agree that Rivian must get new buyers to purchase Rivians. But Tesla's troubles are only partly relevant to Rivian's challenges.

*** How are Rivian and Tesla different in this respect? ***

There are a lot of differences. Here are the ones that stand out to me:

First, favoring Tesla, their manufacturing costs are much lower and their economies of scale are much greater. Tesla can make money at a much lower price point than Rivian.

Second, favoring Rivian, Rivian pursues innovation with specifically defined purposes, and those purposes are consistently relevant to what they perceive as "use case" scenarios in the market. Tesla sometimes seems to be pursuing innovation for its own sake, when it pursues significant innovation at all. This difference is highly relevant to the Jalopnik article.

Third, favoring Tesla, the Supercharger network currently appears to be the world standard for large-charging-network reliability. RAN is good where it's located, but doesn't have robust nationwide reach.

Fourth, favoring Rivian, Rivian's CEO avoids political statements, other than general statements of corporate support for a healthy environment. On the other hand, Tesla's CEO may be the most polarizing CEO in the world. Polarizing CEO's harm their business, and they don't last long unless they own the business. There's a reason for that! Board oversight would have set limits on the behavior of Tesla's CEO a long time ago.

Rivian's CEO is also clear that he's running a vehicle company. In contrast, Tesla's CEO reminds me of Stephen Leacock's saying that his character "flung himself from the room, flung himself upon his horse, and rode madly off in all directions."

Fifth, favoring Rivian, it appears to me that Tesla's product quality is now slipping measurably, while Rivian's product quality is slowly (and sometimes painfully!) improving. That was found in the most recent JD Power survey, which I think is the one Jalopnik was referring to. The survey-based part of the Jalopnik article simply doesn't apply to Rivian, which has the best customer-satisfaction scores in the industry despite relatively poor reliability scores.

There's no point in my family's trajectory at which a Tesla product offered what we needed at a price we were willing to pay. In 2023-2024, there WAS a point where Rivian products appeared to meet our needs very well. Others' needs and perceptions were different.

***

Rivian has far to go to achieve the organizational consistency they need. Rivian remains a "work in progress." Some customers are OK with that -- I prefer an American company that's bet everything on EV's and nothing on ICE vehicles -- and some potential customers aren't.

Rivian has many lessons to learn, and has to learn them while in "survival mode." But they aren't the same lessons as Tesla, so I think @DD4ST's analogy is only partly valid.

Very best wishes!

 

[ndmiller]

Hard to tell if any of these articles are more about actual research on consumers or what the "company" has to do so investors can win in the stock market. I love to see if Tesla is in the writers investment portfolio.

EV's are a long term play, not for short term gain. Consumers are finicky and no-one can predict with great certainty what they want in a vehicle, clothing, pizza or anything else they buy.

Rivian's strategy is clear, understandable and they're sticking to it. Rivian is trying to earn business by breaking out of the ICE constrained automobile. They may be wrong, but have already show a willingness to adapt to market conditions and adjust accordingly (i.e. R2 in IL plant).

Telsa from what I can tell, doesn't have a clear strategy or timelines to execute as they consistently miss dates by many years. They flip flop on monumental decisions over and over, pricing is variable and promises from a decade ago are yet to be realized. Telsa acts as if consumers need them, not the other way around, the EGO is palatable. The size and shape of their original cars hasn't changed in almost a decade and you'll take what you can get isn't a strategy to get new consumers, they probably have everyone already that wants the models they sell.

Neither can predict what the consumer will want, but it feels like one is trying harder and stumbling less over their ego.

 

[lefkonj]

Tesla made a mistake by over charging for something just because they could. Now that there is completion their vehicles are priced where they should be. That means the profits the company saw a few years ago are much lower. That competition also makes it harder for people to accept Tesla's quality and Elon; Musk is a big factor in their decline people don't want to be associated with him.

If Rivian can continue to deliver not only quality but a unique vision on what an EV can be they will be successful. I have stated this before but the same goes for the Germans. MB made the EQS/EQE and they are weird looking and don't sell. BMW made the I4/i5 and they sell. Not just because they are EVs but because they are BMW that happens to be an EV.

 

[Surferdude]

Opening this topic as a thought provoker. I know I am opening a Pandora’s Box on this forum but I am convinced if Rivian is to be successful they need to ‘unthink’ being a revolutionary car company. An article on Tesla facing hard times and not being able to transition to a broader client base (https://jalopnik.com/tesla-doesn-t-know-how-to-sell-cars-to-normal-people-1851609646) would seem to bode for Rivian, too, since Rivian seems to be following the same path, albeit several years later. The majority of people are not ate up with owning an EV and won’t even look at one if it is too far from what they are used to. My first EV was an Audi eTron, not because I craved an EV but because I drove one and really liked the driving experience of an EV plus most of it’s features and controls, and the dealer experience, were already comfortable to me. Now I Also have an R1T and both the car and driving experience are decidedly different from what I was comfortable with. A lot of folks here tout the one-pedal driving but it is not something you fall in love with during a test drive. Ditto on EVERYTHING being software bound vice manually adjustable vents (infinitely more efficient when driving), radio knobs, etc. Don’t get me started on the idea of no dealerships and having to rely on distant Service Centers. If you are coming from Tesla, this is not a leap. And I will get used to the difference. But coming from an ICE vehicle, people will walk away, especially with cheaper prices For ICE. Because of this, legacy companies like Ford and GMC have a big leg up and a threat to Rivian survivability. I do like my Rivian and want them to survive, but the writing is close to being on the wall IMO.

I 100% agree. The lack of a proper tactile-based UI is going to be a big problem for any automaker that is unwilling to adjust to what people want. Very few people want an all-touchscreen UI but you wouldn't know that here on this forum. Because the minority (of the general public) who prefer no tactile controls are very vocal here. Any other auto enthusiast sites will trash these poorly designed UIs; the arguments against are valid and irrefutable.

The one pedal drive with no option to turn off is also a huge miss. Our Lightning gives us the option. But if you speak disparagingly about one pedal driving you will be barraged by comments saying once you get used to it you'll love it. But ultimately choice is far more important than the potential prospects of getting to love something. Not providing an option for something as critical as accelerator/brake pedal controls/feedback is a big mistake.

The non physical ac controls is also a head scratcher. You'd think companies would want to simplify design instead of complicate them. This is another minority- appreciated feature people are particularly vocal about. The vast majority want physical ac controls. They are cheap, easy to use and don't break. This will become a liability for Rivian as they will have to repair failed servos/motors at their cost. And a major cost consideration for those that own these vehicles post-warranty expiration. They are going to be very expensive to repair when they break. Potential buyers know this risk. And you give enough of these reasons they will pass on a purchase.

Other things like odd, difficult to use wiper controls, turn signal stalks, etc are all negatives to the majority of vehicle owners. People want simple and easy to use controls. I really hope Rivian goes back to a UI that is more popular so they can sell more R2s and R3s. The age of poorly designed UIs needs to end. They are unsafe, unpopular and will have a significant impact on the success of future generation models Rivian sells.

Ok everyone can stop rolling their eyes now.

 

[RedRaiderRivian]

Ok everyone can stop rolling their eyes now.

Yes. Please give me back physical buttons on my microwave, digital assistant, watch, thermostat, refrigerator, and cell phone. I miss my 1990's tech. /s

 

[DD4ST]

Dave Cundiff, all good points and your progression talks to how to woo folks from ICE. In my case I chose Audi initially because I did not like the iPad in the center of dash look, I liked the way Audi cars drove, the eTron both felt familiar and drove even better, and I got a great deal. I was actually leaning the Genesis GV80 ICE before but the deal I got on the eTron tipped the scales. While I was interested in EVs, I wasn’t an EV convert. The only real driving difference from an ICE is the eTron does not ‘creep’ at a light. (Interesting note: before I got a Rivian I test drove the Ford Lightning which Ford had built in ‘creep’ to mimic ICE.) I’m now getting used to a more revolutionary EV, my R1T. I will undoubtedly get used to one pedal driving but if I had one piece of advice for Rivian, it is to make a setting available to turn regen off totally. This will get people in the door with a familiar feel with the option to increase efficiency with regen when comfortable. If I had a second piece of advice, allow folks to manually adjust the vents (yes more than a SW update). I believe Rivian will figure it out, and I bought some of their stock to back it up. But realistic discussions like this are necessary for their input.

 

[BigSkies]

Making a successful car isn’t about pleasing everyone. It’s about a successful product/market fit.

Tesla did that very well. At least until recently. It was a very tech-forward brand that was futuristic, optimistic, fun, and practical. It wasn’t luxury, but it was comfortable in what I’d call the mass luxury segment.

Tesla abandoned that view of the world with CEO antics. It’s now more associated with a Trumpian version of a tech-dystopian future. The Cybertruck proves there is a market for that, but I doubt it’s nearly as big as the market Tesla no longer seems interested in.

Rivian will do well as long as they keep the product aligned with their customers.

 

[RivianOwner2022]

Opening this topic as a thought provoker. I know I am opening a Pandora’s Box on this forum but I am convinced if Rivian is to be successful they need to ‘unthink’ being a revolutionary car company. An article on Tesla facing hard times and not being able to transition to a broader client base (https://jalopnik.com/tesla-doesn-t-know-how-to-sell-cars-to-normal-people-1851609646) would seem to bode for Rivian, too, since Rivian seems to be following the same path, albeit several years later. The majority of people are not ate up with owning an EV and won’t even look at one if it is too far from what they are used to. My first EV was an Audi eTron, not because I craved an EV but because I drove one and really liked the driving experience of an EV plus most of it’s features and controls, and the dealer experience, were already comfortable to me. Now I Also have an R1T and both the car and driving experience are decidedly different from what I was comfortable with. A lot of folks here tout the one-pedal driving but it is not something you fall in love with during a test drive. Ditto on EVERYTHING being software bound vice manually adjustable vents (infinitely more efficient when driving), radio knobs, etc. Don’t get me started on the idea of no dealerships and having to rely on distant Service Centers. If you are coming from Tesla, this is not a leap. And I will get used to the difference. But coming from an ICE vehicle, people will walk away, especially with cheaper prices For ICE. Because of this, legacy companies like Ford and GMC have a big leg up and a threat to Rivian survivability. I do like my Rivian and want them to survive, but the writing is close to being on the wall IMO.

As the older, less adaptable generation, rides off into the Sunset, I really don't think the younger drivers will have any issues with the controls and will better appreciate the tech improvements that come along with it. My R1T has been software updated many times and each time it has improved the driving experience...now with side view cameras showing up on my dash screen. I also don't think that driving ICE cars can or should continue due to climate issues and there is a natural progression to EV's as people come to realize our climate future is not good...whether or not our gov't leaders can comprehend basic science. As for one pedal driving, I, for one, appreciate never having to change my brakes!

Sponsored